AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar extended gains on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets by signalling it would raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected. Fed officials on Wednesday projected an accelerated timetable for rate increases, began talks on how to end the emergency bond-buying, and said that the COVID-19 pandemic was no longer a core constraint on U.S. commerce. A majority of 11 Fed officials pencilled in at least two quarter-point rate hikes for 2023, adding in their statement that they would keep policy supportive for now to encourage a labour market recovery. Having on Wednesday clocked its biggest daily gain since March 2020, the dollar steady during Thursday's Asian session and extended gains as European markets opened. Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) strategists said they were closing their long euro-versus-dollar trade recommendation, which was based on the Fed being dovish The dollar rose in early European trade Thursday, climbing to levels not seen for around two months after the Federal Reserve surprised markets with a hawkish turn, bringing forward its timetable for raising interest rates to 2023. The U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its latest two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and surprised no one by maintaining the current levels of interest rates and monthly bond purchases. However, the jolt came when new projections saw 11 of 18 central bank policy makers plan for two interest rate increases of 25 basis points in 2023, a year earlier than expected, and a sharp change from the previous meeting when none of these officials were looking for hikes during that year. With inflation soaring and the economy recovering quickly from the stresses brought about by the pandemic, the market had been expecting the Fed to discuss a timetable for reining in its massive bond-buying program. But this hawkish turn surprised. This was far more than the 0.5% gain expected, as a booming property market helped the economy overcome the collapsing tourism sector with the country’s borders closed. Elsewhere, USD/BRL was largely unchanged at 5.0556 following Wednesday’s decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%, as previously guided, as it struggles to cope with rampant inflation. These central bank meetings continue thick and fast, with the Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and Turkey's central bank meeting later Thursday to decide monetary policy.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia but staged a cautious recovery after the yellow metal recorded its biggest drop in five months during the previous session. Investors continue to digest the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision that indicated interest rates could be raised sooner than expected. The Fed took a surprisingly hawkish tone as it handed down the decision on Wednesday. Out of 18 Fed officials, 11 forecast at least two quarter-point interest rate increases for 2023, in a clear sign that the central bank has begun asset tapering discussions. Investors now await policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank later in the day, with the Bank of Japan handing its decision down on Friday. In other precious metals, silver and platinum gained 0.5% while palladium fell 1%.
  • Crude oil prices dipped on Thursday as a stronger U.S. dollar brought them off multi-year highs, but losses were limited by a big drop in {{8849|U.S. crcrude oil inventories. The U.S. dollar boasted its strongest single day gain in 15 months after the Federal Reserve signalled it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed. A firmer greenback makes oil priced in dollars more expensive in other currencies, potentially weighing on demand. Still, oil price losses were limited as data from the Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles in the world's biggest consumer dropped sharply last week as refineries boosted operations to their highest since January 2020, signalling continued improvement in demand. Also boosting prices, refinery throughput in China, the world's second largest oil consumer, rose 4.4% in May from the same month a year ago to a record high. The world's biggest oil traders said this week they saw oil prices staying above $70 a barrel with demand expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of 2022.
  • Oil was down Thursday morning in Asia, with a strengthening dollar exerting pressure on the black liquid. However, a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude oil supplies stemmed losses for the black liquid Investors also continued digesting the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy decision, handed down on Wednesday. "Energy markets became so fixated over a robust summer travel season and Iran nuclear deal talks that they somewhat got blindsided by the Fed's hawkish surprise," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Reuters. "The Fed was expected to be on hold and punt this meeting, but they sent a clear message they are ready to start talking about tapering and that means the dollar is ripe for a rebound which should be a headwind for all commodities,” he added. The greenback surged to its strongest single-day gain in 15 months on Thursday. However, U.S. crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) limited the oil’s losses. The EIA data showed a draw of 7.355 million barrels for the week to Jun. 11. The draw was bigger than the 3.290-million-barrel draw in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and the 5.241-million-barrel draw recorded during the previous week. Refineries also boosted operations to their highest level since January 2020 in a sign that the fuel demand outlook continues to improve. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute the day before showed a draw of 8.537 million barrels. Also giving oil a boost, refinery throughput in China, the world's top oil importer, rose to a record high of 4.4% in May from the same month in 2020.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th June 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,839 1,839 1,845-1,856
Silver-XAG 27.00-27.55 27.90 28.50-28.90
Crude Oil 72.50-73.00 73.90 74.50-75.00
EURO/USD 1.1990-1.2040 1.2080 1.2100-1.2140
GBP/USD 1.4010-1.4065 1.4090 1.4140-1.4200
USD/JPY 110.90-111.70 112.50 113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th June 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,804-1,797 1,790 1,771-1,760
Silver-XAG 26.65-26.00 25.70 25.10-24.50
Crude Oil 71.50-71.00 70.60 70.00-69.30
EURO/USD 1.1935-1.1890 1.1850 1.1800-1.1750
GBP/USD 1.3965-1.3905 1.3885 1.3840-1.3800
USD/JPY 110.50-110.20 109.50 109.00-108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (17th June 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1863.01/oz and low of US$1803.27/oz. Gold down 2.55% at US$1811.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1796-1760 with risk below 1760, targeting 1820-18310-1839 and 1845-1856-1865. Sell below 1820-1856 keeping stop loss closing above 1856, targeting 1804-1795-1780 and 1771-1760.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,804-1,797
S2     1,790
S3     1,771-1,760
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,839
R2     1,839
R3     1,845-1,856

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.420

Buy
20-DMA   1881.55 Buy
50-DMA  

1831.09

Buy
100-DMA   1796.96 Buy
200-DMA   1838.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   9.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.295 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$27.82/oz and low of US$26.59/oz settled down by 2.445% at US$26.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (25.40), breakage above will lead to 25.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, sell in between 27.00-30.10 with stop loss above 30.10; targeting 26.65-26.00-25.70 and 25.10-24.70-24.00. Buy silver in between 26.65-24.50, targeting 27.00-27.55-27.90 and 28.35-28.90-29.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 25.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.65-26.00
S2     25.70
S3     25.10-24.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     27.00-27.55
R2     27.90
R3     28.50-28.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.205 Buy
20-DMA   27.71 Buy
50-DMA   27.00 Buy
100-DMA   26.63 Buy
200-DMA   25.72 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$72.72/bbl, intraday low of US$71.38/bbl and settled down by 1.005% to close at US$71.40/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 65.09 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 62.70. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 72.50-75.00 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 71.60-71.00-70.60 and 69.70-69.30-68.50. Buy above 71.60-69.30 with risk daily closing below 69.30 and targeting 72.50-73.00-73.90 and 74.50-75.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.50-71.00
S2     70.60
S3     70.00-69.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.50-73.00
R2     73.90
R3     74.50-75.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.168 Sell
20-DMA   68.05 Buy
50-DMA   65.23 Buy
100-DMA   62.67 Buy
200-DMA   53.18 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.829 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1993/EUR, high of US$1.2134/EUR and settled the day down by 1.0845% to close at US$1.1993/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1990-1.2140 targeting 1.1935-1.1890-1.1850 and 1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1935-1.1750 with risk below 1.1750, targeting 1.1990-1.2040-1.2100 and 1.2140-1.2240.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1935-1.1890
S2     1.1850
S3     1.1800-1.1750

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1990-1.2040
R2     1.2080
R3     1.2100-1.2140

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3918/GBP, high of US$1.4131/GBP and settled the day down by 0.670% to close at US$1.3985/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4010-1.4490 with targets at 1.3965-1.3905-1.3885 and 1.3840-1.3800 stop-loss should be 1.4500. Buy above 1.4100-1.3800 with targets 1.4010-1.4065-1.4090 and 1.4140-1.4200-1.4240 with stop loss closing below 1.3800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3965-1.3905
S2     1.3885
S3     1.3840-1.3800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4010-1.4065
R2     1.4090
R3     1.4140-1.4200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.4131 Sell
50-DMA   1.4018 Sell
100-DMA   1.3935 Buy
200-DMA   1.3583 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.71/USD and settled the day down 0.592% at JPY110.70/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.71/USD and settled the day down 0.592% at JPY110.70/USD.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.50-106.50 with targets of 109.70-110.20 and 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.20-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 109.00-108.50-108.00 and 107.50-106.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-110.20
S2     109.50
S3     109.00-108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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