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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday, stabilizing after weakness overnight following commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that again indicated the central bank will take time to tighten monetary policy. Powell stuck largely to his previous script when addressing lawmakers on Tuesday, acknowledging that the price increases seen in the economy recently had been bigger than expected but repeating that they will probably wane. Powell was again upbeat on the outlook for the labor market however. Additionally, New York Fed chief John Williams, in an interview on Bloomberg TV Tuesday, said a discussion about raising interest rates is still some way off. These comments didn’t really make the Fed’s timetable for tightening monetary policy any clearer, and disappointed some dollar bulls would had been looking for a steer towards an early move given the hawkish tone at the last Fed meeting. The only comfort for dollar bulls came from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said that the "substantial further progress" in the recovery, which the Fed has made a precondition for starting to tighten policy, was within reach this year. The dollar index gained 1.9% last week, its biggest weekly rise since March 2000, but has since given up about a third of these sharp gains. The Fedspeak continues later Wednesday, with FOMC members Michelle Bowman, Eric Rosengren and Raphael Bostic all slated to speak at events throughout the day. Data releases Wednesday include new home sales for May and June manufacturing PMI data, but the producer price inflation numbers on Friday will be the next major economic focus. Elsewhere, EUR/HUF rose 0.1% to 350.33 and USD/HUF rose 0.3% to 293.86 the day after the National Bank of Hungary lifted its base rate by 30 basis points to 0.9% to combat inflationary pressures, becoming the first central bank in the European Union to raise rates in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Czech National Bank is expected to follow suit later Wednesday, with analysts largely expecting the central bank to lift its benchmark rate by 50 basis points as, like its neighbor, it struggles to cope with a spike in consumer prices.
  • The U.S. dollar held at lower levels on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the U.S. central bank's intent to encourage a "broad and inclusive" recovery of the job market, and not to raise interest rates too quickly based only on the fear of coming inflation. The dollar had surged after the Fed on Wednesday said that policymakers are forecasting two rate hikes in 2023. That led investors to re-evaluate bets that the Fed will let inflation run at higher levels for a longer time before hiking rates. Fed officials have expressed differing views on when it may be appropriate to tighten monetary policy as inflation rises. The U.S. central bank may be in a position to start reducing its extraordinary support of the U.S. economy by late this year or early next year, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Tuesday. Fed officials will keep a close eye on economic data to determine when it will be appropriate to start adjusting monetary policy and any conversation about when to adjust interest rates is still far off, said New York Fed Bank President John Williams. Producer price inflation data on Friday is the next major economic focus. Bitcoin recovered from a five-month low on Tuesday in a volatile session in which it fell below $30,000, extending losses sparked a day earlier when China's central bank deepened a crackdown on cryptocurrencies.
  • Oil was up Wednesday morning in Asia as a strong economic rebound of key consumers boosted fuel demand and drained bloated inventories. Investors now await a Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting for clues on production policy. U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a draw of 7.199 million barrels for the week ending Jun. 18. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 3.625 million-barrel draw, while an 8.537 million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week. Investors now await crude oil supply from the U.S Energy Information Administration, due later in the day. Fuel demand has also been boosted by key markets including the U.S. and China which continue their economic recovery from COVID-19. On the supply side, OPEC+ is due to meet in the following week to discuss its output policy. Russia is considering a potential supply increase, Russian officials told Bloomberg, while some OPEC+ nations are also discussing a potential supply hike in August, a delegate told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Iran indicated that nuclear talks with world powers could beextended beyond August 2021 and the possible gain in fuel supply is set to be delayed. Although US API Crude Inventories fell overnight, oil failed to maintain its rally, and markets will closely monitor the official crude inventory data tonight. Attention is turning to next week’s monthly OPEC+ meeting with the mark split over whether OPEC+ will increase production. That fear is moderating oil’s price gains, although underlying demand in the physical market means that any corrections lower will remain shallow and short.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s reassuring message that interest rates will not rise too quickly based only on the fear of coming inflation. However, a strengthening dollar curbed gains for the yellow metal. Powell testified before the House of Representatives Select Subcommittee on Tuesday, where he reiterated the central bank’s goal of a “broad and inclusive” recovery of the job market. He also added that the Fed would not hike interest rates before this recovery, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inching lower in response. Investors now await the Bank of England’s policy decision, to be handed down on Thursday. In Asia, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the minutes from its April policy meeting earlier in the day. The minutes said BOJ members agreed that the massive stimulus measures deployed by some countries could help quicken the pace of recovery in both the Japanese and global economies. Japan also released its manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index for June earlier in the day, with the former standing at a lower-than-expected 51.5. The data suggested that the Japanese economy’s recovery is running out of steam ahead of the Tokyo Olympic games, due to open in July.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd June 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,797 1,803 1,820-1,834
Silver-XAG 26.20-26.65 27.00 27.55-27.90
Crude Oil 74.00 74.60 75.00-75.60
EURO/USD 1.1990 1.2040 1.2080-1.2140
GBP/USD 1.4025-1.4065 1.4100 1.4170-1.4220
USD/JPY 110.50-110.90 111.70 112.50-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd June 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,767 1,760 1,755-1,744
Silver-XAG 25.70 25.05 24.80-24.50
Crude Oil 73.10-72.50 71.50 71.00-70.10
EURO/USD 1.1910-1.1850 1.1800 1.1750-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3965-1.3905 1.3870 1.3840-1.3800
USD/JPY 110.00-109.50 109.00 108.50-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd June 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1790.01/oz and low of US$1764.41/oz. Gold up 0.248% at US$1778.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in Between 1780-1744 with risk below 1744, targeting 1790-1797-1803 and 1820-1834. Sell in between 1790-1856 keeping stop loss closing above 1856, targeting 1780-1771-1760 and 1755-1744.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,780-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,755-1,744
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,797
R2     1,803
R3     1,820-1,834

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.420

Buy
20-DMA   1875.55 Sell
50-DMA  

1831.09

Sell
100-DMA   1796.96 Sell
200-DMA   1837.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.295 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$26.02/oz and low of US$25.68/oz settled down by 0.736% at US$25.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.70-24.80, targeting 26.65-27.00-27.55 and 27.90-28.35-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.00. Sell in between 26.20-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.70
S2     25.05
S3     24.80-24.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.20-26.65
R2     27.00
R3     27.55-27.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.205 Buy
20-DMA   27.60 Sell
50-DMA   27.01 Sell
100-DMA   26.62 Sell
200-DMA   25.71 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$73.27/bbl, intraday low of US$72.29/bbl and settled down by 0.112% to close at US$72.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 73.10-69.30 with risk daily closing below 69.30 and targeting 73.10-73.90-74.60 and 75.00-75.60. Sell in between 71.60-74.00 with stop loss at 74.00; targeting 71.00-70.10-69.70 and 69.30-68.40-67.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     73.10-72.50
S2     71.50
S3     71.00-70.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     74.00
R2     74.60
R3     75.00-75.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   68.50 Buy
50-DMA   65.44 Buy
100-DMA   62.86 Buy
200-DMA   53.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.767 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1880/EUR, high of US$1.1952/EUR and settled the day up by 0.177% to close at US$1.1938/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1935-1.2140 targeting 1.1890-1.1850 and 1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1890-1.1750 with risk below 1.1750, targeting 1.1935-1.1990-1.2040 and 1.2100-1.2140.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1910-1.1850
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1750-1.1690

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1990
R2     1.2040
R3     1.2080-1.2140

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3859/GBP, high of US$1.3962/GBP and settled the day up by 0.1148% to close at US$1.3948/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.4025-1.4220 with targets at 1.3965-1.3905-1.3870 and 1.3840-1.3800- 1.3720 stop-loss should be 1.4500. Buy above 1.3965-1.3670 with targets 1.4025-1.4065 and 1.4090-1.4140-1.4200 with stop loss closing below 1.3800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3965-1.3905
S2     1.3870
S3     1.3840-1.3800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.4025-1.4065
R2     1.4100
R3     1.4170-1.4220

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.4131 Sell
50-DMA   1.4018 Sell
100-DMA   1.3935 Buy
200-DMA   1.3583 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.20/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.34/USD and settled the day up 0.0235% at JPY110.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.20-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 110.20-109.50-109.00 and 108.50-108.00-107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00-109.50
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-110.90
R2     111.70
R3     112.50-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

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