AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was broadly steady on Monday as global markets started the week in a cautious mood, while currency market focus started shifting towards key U.S. payrolls data on Friday. Some analysts attributed the lack of momentum during Asian trading to a spike in COVID-19 cases in the region, as Australia's most populous city, Sydney, went into lockdown. Indonesia is battling record-high cases while a lockdown in Malaysia is set to be extended. Thailand too announced new restrictions in Bangkok and other provinces. Softer-than-expected inflation data last week did little to ease concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve dialling down its monetary stimulus. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5%, short of expectations for a 0.6% rise. Speculators decreased their net short dollar positions in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. Among a raft of economic indicators this week, Friday's payroll data is a key focus - with economists expecting an increase of 675,000 jobs. Noting a lack of volatility in currency markets, ING strategists wrote in a note to clients that "it will probably take a jobs number closer to the one million mark to shake up the US rates curve and FX markets once again." News of a bipartisan U.S. infrastructure agreement helped risk appetite. The infrastructure plan is valued at $1.2 trillion over eight years, of which $579 billion is new spending. Oil prices slipped slightly after earlier climbing to their highest since October 2018 on expectations demand growth will outstrip supply and OPEC+ will be cautious in returning more crude to the market from August. OPEC+ meets on Thursday. The dollar was largely unchanged in early European trade Monday, maintaining a firm tone after recent inflation data as the market prepares for this week’s key payrolls release. The dollar took an initial hit on Friday following the release of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation, the core U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index. This increased 0.5% in May, short of expectations for a 0.6% rise, which reassured some that inflation is not running out of control. Even so, the year-on-year rise was 3.4%, the biggest jump since 1992, and failed to completely quell fears that the Federal Reserve will be forced to normalize monetary policy sooner than it currently expects. Adding support to the greenback were comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren on Friday, who suggested the central bank could consider an interest-rate hike as soon as late 2022 as the labor market reaches full employment. With this in mind, Friday's payrolls data will be the market’s key focus this week, with economists expecting an increase of 675,000 jobs. That said, with concerns over mismatches of skills and opportunities in the labor market at the fore of investors’ minds, markets will also be looking at other parts of the labor market report, including wage growth and labor force participation. The week also includes and number of appearances by several Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles.
  • Oil prices slipped on Monday after hitting more than 2-1/2 year highs earlier in the session, as a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia put a brake on their rally before this week's OPEC+ meeting. But analysts said the rally had not yet run out of steam. Oil prices rose for a fifth week last week as fuel demand rebounded on strong economic growth and increased travel during the northern hemisphere summer, while crude supplies were tight as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, maintained production cuts. OPEC+ is gradually easing those curbs, adding 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market from May to July. OPEC+, which meets on July 1, could decide to add further barrels in August as oil prices rise with recovering demand. ANZ and ING expect OPEC+ to increase output by about 500,000 bpd in August, which is likely to support higher prices. Rising COVID-19 cases in Asia have however put a modest dampener on the outlook. Indonesia is battling record-high cases, Malaysia is set to extend a lockdown and Thailand has announced new COVID-related restrictions. Australia also reported on Sunday one of the highest numbers of locally acquired coronavirus cases this year, triggering lockdowns in some cities. Iran and the United States are expected to resume indirect talks on reviving a pact over Tehran's nuclear work. Agreement could lead to a lifting of U.S. sanctions and more Iranian crude on the market. But tensions rose after U.S. air strikes on Sunday against Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia as investors digested the U.S. FED mixed signals on monetary policy tightening after the release of tame inflation data. Investors also continued to digest inflation data released by the U.S. during the previous week. The core personal consumption expenditures index grew a smaller-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month in May while growing 3.4% year-on-year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari added on the same day that the recent high inflation readings would be temporary. With the trading in a range and until gold breaks above the $1,800 or below the $1,760 marks, it is looking like a sideways trend in the short term, said Rodda. Investors also continue to keep an eye on negotiations for U.S. President Joe Biden’s bipartisan U.S. infrastructure deal, valued at $1.2 trillion over eight years.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th June 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,797 1,803 1,820-1,834
Silver-XAG 26.20-26.65 27.00 27.55-27.90
Crude Oil 74.00-74.60 75.00 75.60-76.00
EURO/USD 1.1990 1.2040 1.2080-1.2140
GBP/USD 1.3965 1.4025 1.4065-1.4100
USD/JPY 110.90-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th June 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,775-1,767 1,760 1,755-1,744
Silver-XAG 26.00-25.70 25.05 24.80-24.50
Crude Oil 73.50-73.10 72.50 71.50-71.00
EURO/USD 1.1910-1.1850 1.1800 1.1750-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3905-1.3870 1.3840 1.3800-1.3720
USD/JPY 110.50-109.50 109.00 108.50-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th June 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1790.18/oz and low of US$1773.60/oz. Gold down 0.361% at US$1781.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in Between 1775-1744 with risk below 1744, targeting 1790-1797-1803 and 1820-1834. Sell in between 1790-1856 keeping stop loss closing above 1856, targeting 1780-1771-1760 and 1755-1744.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,775-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,755-1,744
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,797
R2     1,803
R3     1,820-1,834

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.420

Buy
20-DMA   1875.55 Sell
50-DMA  

1831.09

Sell
100-DMA   1796.96 Sell
200-DMA   1837.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.295 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$26.15/oz and low of US$25.90/oz settled up by 0.547% at US$26.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.90-24.80, targeting 26.65-27.00-27.55 and 27.90-28.35-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.00. Sell in between 26.20-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.00-25.70
S2     25.05
S3     24.80-24.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.20-26.65
R2     27.00
R3     27.55-27.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.205 Buy
20-DMA   27.60 Sell
50-DMA   27.01 Sell
100-DMA   26.62 Sell
200-DMA   25.71 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$73.38/bbl, intraday low of US$72.12/bbl and settled up by 0.112% to close at US$73.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 73.50-69.30 with risk daily closing below 69.30 and targeting 73.10-73.90-74.60 and 75.00-75.60. Sell in between 74.00-76.00 with stop loss at 76.00; targeting 73.50-73.10-72.50 and 71.00-70.10-69.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     73.50-73.10
S2     72.50
S3     71.50-71.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     74.00-74.60
R2     75.00
R3     75.60-76.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   68.50 Buy
50-DMA   65.44 Buy
100-DMA   62.86 Buy
200-DMA   53.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.767 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1925/EUR, high of US$1.1974/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0494% to close at US$1.1934/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1990-1.2140 targeting 1.1890-1.1850 and 1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1890-1.1750 with risk below 1.1750, targeting 1.1935-1.1990-1.2040 and 1.2100-1.2140.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1910-1.1850
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1750-1.1690

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1990
R2     1.2040
R3     1.2080-1.2140

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3870/GBP, high of US$1.3934/GBP and settled the day down by 0.274% to close at US$1.3878/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3965-1.4220 with targets at 1.3870-1.3840-1.3800 and 1.3720-1.3660 stop-loss should be 1.4500. Buy above 1.3905-1.3670 with targets 1.3905-1.3965-1.4025 and 1.4065-1.4090-1.4140 with stop loss closing below 1.3660.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3905-1.3870
S2     1.3840
S3     1.3800-1.3720

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3965
R2     1.4025
R3     1.4065-1.4100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.4131 Sell
50-DMA   1.4018 Sell
100-DMA   1.3935 Buy
200-DMA   1.3583 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day down 0.103% at JPY110.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.20-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 110.20-109.50-109.00 and 108.50-108.00-107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-109.50
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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