AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rose towards three-month highs versus major counterparts on Tuesday as coronavirus outbreaks threatened to snuff out global economic recovery with the Australian dollar and the British pound leading losses. Australia is battling small but fast-growing outbreaks with snap lockdowns in several cities while the Red Cross said Indonesia's COVID-19 surge is taking the Southeast nation to the edge of a "catastrophe". The dollar and yen benefited from some safe-haven demand as the more contagious Delta coronavirus strain spread in Asia and elsewhere, stoking fears of further lockdowns. The euro declined 0.1% to $1.1911, edging back toward the 2-1/2-month low of $1.8470 touched on June 18. The dollar edged marginally higher in early European trade Tuesday, helped by concerns over the rise of Covid cases in Asia, but gains are minimal ahead of this week’s key payrolls release. The safe-haven dollar received a boost Tuesday as a number of regions in Asia struggled with the spread of the highly infectious delta variant of the Covid-19 virus. Australia has locked down several cities, Indonesia is grappling with record-high cases, Malaysia is set to extend a lockdown and Thailand has announced new restrictions. However, the greenback remains in a tight range ahead of a closely watched U.S. jobs report, with the Federal Reserve placing great emphasis upon the recovery of the labor market before reining in its ultra-easy monetary policy. With this in mind, Friday's payrolls data will be the market’s key focus this week, with economists expecting an increase of 675,000 jobs in June, compared with 559,000 in May. Tuesday also sees the release of the U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence Index for June, at 10 AM ET (1400 GMT), which is seen rising to 119 after declining to 117.2 in May.
  • However, the dollar continued its retreat from the high of 92.408 seen on Jun. 18, the week when the Fed surprised investors with the unexpected hawkish tone in its policy decision. Fed officials have since focused on whether upcoming data will merit asset tapering and interest rate hikes, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saying during the previous week that decisions would not be based just the "fear" of inflation and will encourage a "broad and inclusive" job market recovery. Investors now await the U.S. job report, including non-farm payrolls, for June, due on Friday. The U.S. will also release its Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index later in the day and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday. The safe-haven dollar and yen benefited from increasing demand as the Delta variant of COVID-19 continues to spread in Asia and elsewhere. In Europe, the euro was at $1.19210, in a move back to the two-and-a-half-month low of $1.8470 hit on Jun. 18.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining close to the one-week low hut during the previous session and is set for its worst month since 2016. A strengthening dollar and concerns over whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected also weighed on the yellow metal. Confusion over the Fed’s policy outlook remains almost two weeks after a sudden hawkish turn in its latest policy decision spooked investors. This has in turn contributed to the listless trading seen in the gold market, according to ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir. Some Fed officials stuck to this hawkish tone, with Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin saying that the central bank has made “substantial further progress” towards its inflation goal in order to begin asset tapering. The dollar, which usually moves inversely to gold, inched up to hover below a two-month high on Monday. However, “the dollar will start to weaken again, because the landscape is clear on the rate hike front for at least another 18 months to two years,” said Meir. Other investors also expected gold to continue its downward trend.
  • Oil was down Tuesday morning in Asia, as the fast-spreading Delta variant of COVID-19 in some countries dimmed the fuel demand outlook. Investors also await an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting later in the week. However, the U.K. reported the highest daily rise in COVID-19 cases on Monday since Jan. 30. Hong Kong, Spain and Portugal banned all passenger flights from the nation to curb the spread of outbreaks involving COVID-19's Delta variant. Meanwhile, the Australian cities of Sydney, Darwin, Perth and Brisbane reimposed lockdown measures to curb the country's latest COVID-19 outbreak. On the supply side, OPEC+ is expected to increase supply by 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day in August when the cartel meets on Thursday. In data to be reviewed at the meeting, OPEC+ forecasts that global oil markets will remain in deficit in 2021 if it keeps output steady. Fuel demand is expected to surpass supply by 1.7 million barrels a day in August, according to estimates to be presented to the Joint Technical Committee. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute is due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th June 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,797 1,803 1,820-1,834
Silver-XAG 26.20-26.65 27.00 27.55-27.90
Crude Oil 73.10-73.50 74.00 74.60-75.00
EURO/USD 1.1990 1.2040 1.2080-1.2140
GBP/USD 1.3905-1.3965 1.4025 1.4065-1.4100
USD/JPY 110.90-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th June 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,775-1,767 1,760 1,755-1,744
Silver-XAG 26.00-25.70 25.05 24.80-24.50
Crude Oil 72.50-71.50 71.10 70.60-69.40
EURO/USD 1.1910-1.1850 1.1800 1.1750-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3870-1.3840 1.3800 1.3720-1.3650
USD/JPY 110.50-109.50 109.00 108.50-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (29th June 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1785.69/oz and low of US$1770.58/oz. Gold down 0.144% at US$1778.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in Between 1775-1744 with risk below 1744, targeting 1790-1797-1803 and 1820-1834. Sell in between 1790-1856 keeping stop loss closing above 1856, targeting 1780-1771-1760 and 1755-1744.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,775-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,755-1,744
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,797
R2     1,803
R3     1,820-1,834

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.420

Buy
20-DMA   1875.55 Sell
50-DMA  

1831.09

Sell
100-DMA   1796.96 Sell
200-DMA   1837.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.295 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.21/oz and low of US$25.77/oz settled up by 0.0996% at US$26.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.90-24.80, targeting 26.65-27.00-27.55 and 27.90-28.35-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.00. Sell in between 26.20-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.00-25.70
S2     25.05
S3     24.80-24.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.20-26.65
R2     27.00
R3     27.55-27.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.205 Buy
20-DMA   27.60 Sell
50-DMA   27.01 Sell
100-DMA   26.62 Sell
200-DMA   25.71 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$74.14/bbl, intraday low of US$72.34/bbl and settled up by 1.694% to close at US$72.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 72.50-69.30 with risk daily closing below 69.30 and targeting 73.10-73.90-74.60 and 75.00-75.60. Sell in between 73.00-76.00 with stop loss at 76.00; targeting 72.50-71.00 and 70.10-69.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.50-71.50
S2     71.10
S3     70.60-69.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     73.10-73.50
R2     74.00
R3     74.60-75.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   68.50 Buy
50-DMA   65.44 Buy
100-DMA   62.86 Buy
200-DMA   53.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.767 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1901/EUR, high of US$1.1943/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0628% to close at US$1.1925/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1990-1.2140 targeting 1.1890-1.1850 and 1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1890-1.1750 with risk below 1.1750, targeting 1.1935-1.1990-1.2040 and 1.2100-1.2140.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1910-1.1850
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1750-1.1690

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1990
R2     1.2040
R3     1.2080-1.2140

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3869/GBP, high of US$1.3938/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0244% to close at US$1.3879/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3905-1.4220 with targets at 1.3870-1.3840-1.3800 and 1.3720-1.3660 stop-loss should be 1.4500. Buy above 1.3870-1.3670 with targets 1.3905-1.3965-1.4025 and 1.4065-1.4090-1.4140 with stop loss closing below 1.3660.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3870-1.3840
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3720-1.3650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3905-1.3965
R2     1.4025
R3     1.4065-1.4100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.4131 Sell
50-DMA   1.4018 Sell
100-DMA   1.3935 Buy
200-DMA   1.3583 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day down 0.108% at JPY110.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.20-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 110.20-109.50-109.00 and 108.50-108.00-107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-109.50
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING