AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was heading for its biggest monthly rise since November 2016 on Wednesday, supported by traders' trepidation ahead of unpredictable U.S. labour data and concern over the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The dollar has gained about 2.5% against a basket of currencies this month, mostly in the wake of a surprisingly hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's rates outlook. Traders think it could move sharply in either direction if labour data this week provides clues as to the pressure on policymakers. On Wednesday, risk-sensitive and commodity-exposed currencies nursed the largest losses, after the Australian and New Zealand dollars had fallen about 0.7% against the dollar on Tuesday and the Canadian dollar had lost about 0.5%. They were steady in the European session, as were the safe-havens of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc which held their own through Tuesday. That left the euro at $1.1900, the yen at 110.49 per dollar and the Aussie at $0.7518 - all within sight of recent milestone lows against the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was steady at 92.041 after touching a one-week high of 92.194 on Tuesday. A test of the near-term dollar outlook arrives this week with U.S. labour data. Signs of strength could add to inflationary pressure on policymakers to move sooner on rate hikes, while a miss might put some padding into the timeline. Private payrolls are due later on Wednesday, but the main focus is on more comprehensive labour figures due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters forecast private payrolls showing a gain of 600,000 in June, a slowdown from a month ago when 987,000 jobs were created. The average forecast for Friday's non-farm payrolls is for a rise of 700,000 jobs, but the variation among the 83 estimates is large, ranging from 376,000 to more than a million. Besides the looming data, a fresh spike in global coronavirus infections and in restrictive measures to contain them kept a lid on currency movements. Case counts are hitting daily records in Indonesia, lockdowns are being extended in Malaysia and expanded in Australia, while travellers from Britain are facing new restrictions as the contagious Delta variant spreads. Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, said currency markets seemed to be in transition from closely tracking the ebb and flow of risk sentiment towards a greater sensitivity to interest rates, driving a shakeout that has lifted the dollar. Indeed, data showed the sharpest fall in the value of bets against the dollar in three months occurred last week, a boost for the greenback as the shorts buy dollars to close positions.
  • The dollar maintained its recent positive tone in early European trade Wednesday, as the spreading outbreak of Covid-19 cases in Asia prompts risk aversion ahead of the release of key U.S. jobs data. Risk appetite has taken a hit of late as the spread of the virulent delta strain of the Covid-19 virus through many Asian countries has caused the reimposition of restrictions.
  • Australian officials extended lockdown and social distancing measures to more of the country on Wednesday, with four major cities already under a hard lockdown. This added to restrictions already announced in the likes of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Away from news about the coronavirus, there remains some uncertainty ahead of Friday’s closely watched U.S. jobs report, given the importance the Federal Reserve has placed on the recovery of the labor market. A strengthening labor market could prompt the Fed to rein in its accommodative monetary policy earlier than expected, giving the dollar a boost, but disappointing data will leave the dollar in a vulnerable position, especially after the Fed’s hawkish tone at its last meeting. Ahead of Friday's payroll data, the ADP nonfarm employment release is due at 8:15 AM ET (1215 GMT), with this private-sector hiring report expected to detail 600,000 new jobs, down from the previous month’s 978,000. Before that, Eurozone consumer prices are due at 5 AM ET (0900 GMT), and are expected to tick down in year-on-year terms. That may take the wind out of the sails of the ECB's more hawkish members such as Germany's Jens Weidmann, who said in a speech on Monday that "the risks around the price outlook have shifted...upside risks to price developments being predominant." Improved pricing conditions were also a feature of the European Commission's Eurozone business confidence survey that was released on Tuesday. Elsewhere, USD/CNY fell 0.1% to 6.4564, after China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 50.9 for June, slightly higher than the 50.8 expected but lower than May’s 51 reading, falling to a four-month low. The non-manufacturing PMI was 53.5 in June, below the previous month’s 55.2.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th June 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,797 1,803 1,820-1,834
Silver-XAG 26.20-26.65 27.00 27.55-27.90
Crude Oil 73.10-73.50 74.00 74.60-75.00
EURO/USD 1.1990 1.2040 1.2080-1.2140
GBP/USD 1.3905-1.3965 1.4025 1.4065-1.4100
USD/JPY 110.90-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th June 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,775-1,767 1,760 1,755-1,744
Silver-XAG 26.00-25.70 25.05 24.80-24.50
Crude Oil 72.50-71.50 71.10 70.60-69.40
EURO/USD 1.1910-1.1850 1.1800 1.1750-1.1690
GBP/USD 1.3870-1.3840 1.3800 1.3720-1.3650
USD/JPY 110.50-109.50 109.00 108.50-108.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th June 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1785.69/oz and low of US$1770.58/oz. Gold down 0.144% at US$1778.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in Between 1775-1744 with risk below 1744, targeting 1790-1797-1803 and 1820-1834. Sell in between 1790-1856 keeping stop loss closing above 1856, targeting 1780-1771-1760 and 1755-1744.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,775-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,755-1,744
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,797
R2     1,803
R3     1,820-1,834

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.420

Buy
20-DMA   1875.55 Sell
50-DMA  

1831.09

Sell
100-DMA   1796.96 Sell
200-DMA   1837.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.295 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$26.21/oz and low of US$25.77/oz settled up by 0.0996% at US$26.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.90-24.80, targeting 26.65-27.00-27.55 and 27.90-28.35-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.00. Sell in between 26.20-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     26.00-25.70
S2     25.05
S3     24.80-24.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.20-26.65
R2     27.00
R3     27.55-27.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.205 Buy
20-DMA   27.60 Sell
50-DMA   27.01 Sell
100-DMA   26.62 Sell
200-DMA   25.71 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.468 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0436 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$74.14/bbl, intraday low of US$72.34/bbl and settled up by 1.694% to close at US$72.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 72.50-69.30 with risk daily closing below 69.30 and targeting 73.10-73.90-74.60 and 75.00-75.60. Sell in between 73.00-76.00 with stop loss at 76.00; targeting 72.50-71.00 and 70.10-69.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     72.50-71.50
S2     71.10
S3     70.60-69.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     73.10-73.50
R2     74.00
R3     74.60-75.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   68.50 Buy
50-DMA   65.44 Buy
100-DMA   62.86 Buy
200-DMA   53.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.767 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1901/EUR, high of US$1.1943/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0628% to close at US$1.1925/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1990-1.2140 targeting 1.1890-1.1850 and 1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1890-1.1750 with risk below 1.1750, targeting 1.1935-1.1990-1.2040 and 1.2100-1.2140.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1910-1.1850
S2     1.1800
S3     1.1750-1.1690

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1990
R2     1.2040
R3     1.2080-1.2140

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3869/GBP, high of US$1.3938/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0244% to close at US$1.3879/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3905-1.4220 with targets at 1.3870-1.3840-1.3800 and 1.3720-1.3660 stop-loss should be 1.4500. Buy above 1.3870-1.3670 with targets 1.3905-1.3965-1.4025 and 1.4065-1.4090-1.4140 with stop loss closing below 1.3660.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3870-1.3840
S2     1.3800
S3     1.3720-1.3650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3905-1.3965
R2     1.4025
R3     1.4065-1.4100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.806

Buy
20-DMA   1.4131 Sell
50-DMA   1.4018 Sell
100-DMA   1.3935 Buy
200-DMA   1.3583 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.97/USD and settled the day down 0.108% at JPY110.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.20-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-112.50 with risk above 112.50 targeting 110.20-109.50-109.00 and 108.50-108.00-107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-109.50
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-108.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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