AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, hitting pause on its recent gains, after the latest U.S. jobs report eased concerns about an earlier-than-expected hike in U.S. interest rates. Data released earlier in the day in Australia said the services PMI at a slightly higher-than-forecast 56.8, while retail sales grew a better-than-expected 0.4% month-on-month in May. Chinese data released earlier in the day said that the Caixin services purchasing managers index (PMI) was at 50.3 in June, lower than the 55.1 figure reported for the previous month. The U.S. jobs report said that non-farm payrolls grew by a higher-than-expected 850,000 in June. However, the unemployment rate was also higher than expected at 5.9%, easing concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates sooner than expected. Investors now await the minutes from the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s latest meeting, to be released later in the week. The minutes will be closely scrutinized as it was at this meeting that the Fed hinted at interest rate hikes beginning in 2023 in a surprise hawkish shift in its monetary policy. Investors also await a policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, to be handed down on Tuesday. Although not expected to move its cash rate, some investors expected the Australian central bank would not extend its three-year yield target beyond the April 2024 bond and adopt a flexible approach to bond purchases in the decision.
  • The dollar took a breather on Monday, after recent gains ran into a speed bump when details of last week's U.S. jobs report soothed jitters about the timing of U.S. interest rate hikes. While the headline June job creation figure beat forecasts, unemployment ticked higher, workforce participation didn't budge and the pace of hourly earnings growth slowed - suggesting rate rises could be further away than markets have come to fear. It is up about 2% in three weeks since the Fed drove a jump in the greenback in June - and positioning shakeout across bonds and currencies - with a surprisingly hawkish projection for rate hikes beginning in 2023 Minutes from that June meeting are due to be published on Wednesday and might have more details on policymakers' thinking Also on the horizon this week is a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday, which has markets on tenterhooks because the central bank has flagged a decision on the fate of its bond purchase programme and yield target. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Independence Day holiday.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, boosted by a weakening dollar. The latest U.S. jobs report also calmed investor fears of an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike. On the demand side, central banks including Serbia, Thailand, and Ghana are increasing their gold holdings due to signs of accelerating inflation. “Long term, gold is the most significant guardian and guarantor of protection against inflationary and other forms of financial risks,” the National Bank of Serbia told Bloomberg. According to the U.S. jobs report, released on Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by 850,000 in June thanks to rising wages and more incentives. It was higher than the 700,000 figure in forecasts prepared. Investors are now focusing on further economic data due later in the week for clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move in its monetary policy. They also await the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision In Asia, Japan’s services purchasing managers index services PMI for June was at a higher-than-expected 48. Meanwhile, data released earlier in the day said that China’s Caixin services PMI in June was 50.3, below May’s 55.1 figure. Gold in India was sold at a premium in the previous week, the first time it did so in more than two months. Demand increased after the second-largest consumer of gold slightly eased its COVID-19 curbs.
  • Oil was down Monday morning in Asia, with investors on tenterhooks ahead of a crucial Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting later in the day. The latest meeting comes as the cartel voted to increase production by about 2 million barrels a day from August to December 2021, as well as extend the remaining output cuts to the end of 2022, on Friday. However, the United Arab Emirates has raised objections to the vote results, in a rare public dispute that could see a price crash like the one that followed a Saudi Arabia-Russia price war in April 2020. National interests are also increasingly playing into the picture, with oil users wanting to see more supply in the market as their economies recover from COVID-19. Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud called for "compromise and rationality" in a bid for unity ahead of Monday’s meeting. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Baker Hughes Co said in its report on Friday that the number of oil and natural gas rigs was up by 5 to 475 in the week to Jul. 2, the most since April 2020. This early indicator of future output rose for the third week out of the past four.its support to a deal if the baseline for its own cuts was raised considerably, according to delegates. The country’s reductions are measured from a starting point in 2018, which set its maximum capacity at 3.168 million barrels a day. However, expansion projects have since raised that number to about 4 million barrels a day. Reflecting that new capacity in its baseline could allow it to pump hundreds of thousands of barrels a day of extra crude. Observers believe OPEC+ is likely to agree on Friday to restore more production. Oil prices were slightly on Monday with investors and traders awaiting crucial talks by OPEC+ following disagreement over output within the group that could lead to major producers pumping up volumes to grab market share The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, voted on Friday to increase production by about 2 million barrels a day from August to December 2021 and to extend the remaining output cuts to the end of 2022, but objections from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) prevented an agreement. It was a rare public disagreement between members of the group, with national interests increasingly diverging, which is impacting OPEC+ policy as oil users want more crude as their economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Saudi Arabia's energy minister sought on Sunday to push back against UAE's opposition to a proposed deal, calling for "compromise and rationality" to get unanimity when the group meets again on Monday. He also highlighted uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and production from Iran and Venezuela. In the United States, energy companies increased oil and natural gas rigs for a third week out of the last four. The number of oil and gas rigs, an early indicator of future output, was up by 5 to 475 in the week to July 2, the most since April 2020, Baker Hughes Co said in its closely watched report on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th July 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,805 1,814 1,830-1,840
Silver-XAG 26.60-26.65 27.00 27.55-27.90
Crude Oil 75.00-75.80 76.50 77.05-78.00
EURO/USD 1.1910 1.1990 1.2040-1.2080
GBP/USD 1.3840-1.3905 1.3965 1.4025-1.4100
USD/JPY 111.70-112.50 113.00 113.90-114.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th July 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,780-1,767 1,760 1,755-1,744
Silver-XAG 25.70-25.05 24.80 24.50-24.00
Crude Oil 74.60-74.00 73.50 73.10-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1800 1.1750 1.1690-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3800-1.3770 1.3720 1.3650-1.3600
USD/JPY 110.90-110.50 109.50 109.00-108.50

Intra-Day Strategy (5th July 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1795.02/oz and low of US$1774.14/oz. Gold up 0.507% at US$1787.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in Between 1780-1720 with risk below 1720, targeting 1790-1797 and 1805-1820-1830. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1767-1755-1744 and 1735-1722-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,780-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,755-1,744
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,805
R2     1,814
R3     1,830-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.215

Buy
20-DMA   1820.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1832.84

Sell
100-DMA   1790.71 Sell
200-DMA   1830.21 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -23.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$26.55/oz and low of US$25.96/oz settled up by 1.567% at US$26.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.90-24.80, targeting 26.65-27.00-27.55 and 27.90-28.35-28.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 24.00. Sell in between 26.20-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.70-25.05
S2     24.80
S3     24.50-24.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.60-26.65
R2     27.00
R3     27.55-27.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.739 Buy
20-DMA   26.73 Sell
50-DMA   27.04 Sell
100-DMA   26.51 Sell
200-DMA   25.68 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.413 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.3810 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$75.04/bbl, intraday low of US$73.90/bbl and settled up by 0.216% to close at US$74.62/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 74.60-69.30 with risk daily closing below 69.30 and targeting 75.00-75.80-76.50 and 77.05-78.00. Sell in between 74.50-76.00 with stop loss at 76.00; targeting 73.50-73.10-72.50 and 71.00-70.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     74.60-74.00
S2     73.50
S3     73.10-72.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     75.00-75.80
R2     76.50
R3     77.05-78.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.168 Sell
20-DMA   68.50 Buy
50-DMA   65.44 Buy
100-DMA   62.86 Buy
200-DMA   53.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.767 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1806/EUR, high of US$1.1873/EUR and settled the day up by 0.130% to close at US$1.1865/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1910-1.2140 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1850-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1910-1.1990-1.2040 and 1.2100-1.2140.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1800
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1690-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1910
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2040-1.2080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.621 Buy
20-DMA   1.2175 Buy
50-DMA   1.2047 Buy
100-DMA   1.2039 Buy
200-DMA   1.1980 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   36.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3731/GBP, high of US$1.3843/GBP and settled the day down by 0.483% to close at US$1.3830/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3840-1.4220 with targets at 1.3800-1.3770-1.3720 and 1.3660-1.3600-1.3560 stop-loss should be 1.4220. Buy above 1.3800-1.3560 with targets 1.3905-1.3965-1.4025 and 1.4065-1.4090-1.4140 with stop loss closing below 1.3660.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3800-1.3770
S2     1.3720
S3     1.3650-1.3600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3840-1.3905
R2     1.3965
R3     1.4025-1.4100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.738

Buy
20-DMA   1.4026 Sell
50-DMA   1.4026 Sell
100-DMA   1.3942 Buy
200-DMA   1.3633 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.94/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.65/USD and settled the day up 0.4286% at JPY111.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.50-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 111.70-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 110.90-110.20-109.50 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.90-110.50
S2     109.50
S3     109.00-108.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.70-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.90-114.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING