AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, remaining around a two-week low. The U.S. currency was weighed down by the latest insistence from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that interest rate hikes are not forthcoming. Efforts to calm the market turbulence over a crackdown on sectors such as education raised investors’ confidence, with China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Vice Chairman Fang Xingha reportedly calling executives at major investment banks on Wednesday. Powell’s comments came as the Fed handed down its latest policy decision on Wednesday, where he said that interest rate hikes are "a ways away" and that the job market still had "some ground to cover” before the central bank begins to taper its assets. Although the dollar rose following the Fed’s decision, it retreated to a two-week low of $1.1849 against the euro after Powell's comments. The retreat indicated that the greenback could be taking a breather from its month-long rise, with the euro now above its 20-day moving average. He also noted the rebound in U.S.-listed China tech names and recent gains in re-opening exposed firms. The pound has been a big mover during the past week, thanks to initial positive signs from England’s lift of most COVID-19 curbs earlier in the month. Rolling averages of daily U.K. COVID-19 cases are headed towards a downward trend, even as the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.K. continues to rise. However, experts and Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that it is currently too early to draw any conclusions. Investors now await German labor and inflation data to be released later in the day, including the unemployment change and rate for July as well as the consumer price index.
  • The dollar slipped to multi-week lows in Asian trading on Thursday after fresh reassurance that U.S. interest rate hikes are distant and as riskier currencies drew support from China's efforts to soothe stock market jitters. About a month of dollar gains had already lost momentum leading in to Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell's remark that rate increases were "a ways away" was enough to tip it a touch lower still. The euro edged to a two-week high of $1.1860 and the Australian and New Zealand dollars clung to gains made in a bounce on Wednesday. Sterling, which has been surging on optimism over the re-opening of the British economy, touched a one-month high of $1.3940. The dollar index was softer for a fourth straight session, last trading at a two-week low of 92.110, while the Chinese yuan edged up to stand as high as 6.4691 per dollar in onshore trade and has now regained ground lost in tandem with a regulatory-driven plunge in Chinese equities on Tuesday. A Bloomberg report on a call China's securities regulator held with banks and brokers to soothe nerves following heavy equities selling also helped sentiment and riskier currencies. A CNBC report saying China Securities Regulatory Commission told brokerages on the call that China would continue to allow companies to list in the United States offered further support, as did solid rises in Chinese stock indexes on Thursday. Recent resilience in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc suggests plenty of caution remains in currency markets as global coronavirus cases rise, yet at the same time sterling's gains reflect optimism that the British economy can be re-opened as vaccinations progress. The British currency is the biggest G10 gainer on the dollar this week. It climbed some 2.6% from a five-month low it touched last week to the one-month top it hit on Thursday. The pound notched up its highest levels in almost four months on the euro on Wednesday. It has also made strong gains on the yen and especially on the Australian dollar, against which it is up 3.6% from low touched in early July. Though experts and Prime Minister Boris Johnson have cautioned it is too early to draw conclusions, England's re-opening last week has yet to spark a surge in cases or in hospitalisations. Later on Thursday, traders will be looking at German labour and inflation data, European sentiment surveys and second-quarter U.S. GDP - where the consensus is for 8.5% annualised growth, albeit from a wide range of forecasts.
  • Oil was up Thursday morning in Asia as the latest data showed a draw in U.S. crude oil supplies to their lowest level since January 2020. Wednesday's U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a draw of 4.089 million barrels in the week to July 23. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 2.928-million-barrel draw, while a 2.108-million-barrel build was recorded during the previous week.Crude oil supply data released a day before by the American Petroleum Institute showed a draw of 4.728 million barrels. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery is still on track despite a rise in daily COVID-19 cases as it handed down its latest policy decision on Wednesday. The decision left the interest rate unchanged between 0 % and 0.25% but did not provide a timetable for asset tapering. The EIA data showed a bigger-than-expected 2.253-million-barrel draw in gasoline inventories, bringing them largely in line with pre-COVID-19 levels. However, fuel demand continues to be of concern for investors as gasoline demand in the U.S. and Europe beginning to fall. It is widely expected that fuel demand will likely not recover to its pre-COVID-19 levels until 2022 should the number of COVID-19 cases continue to increase, and the vaccination rate continues to slow down.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th July 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,812 1,820 1,833-1,840
Silver-XAG 25.50 26.00 26.50-26.90
Crude Oil 72.60-73.00 73.40 74.00-74.50
EURO/USD 1.1910 1.1990 1.2040-1.2080
GBP/USD 1.3955 1.4020 1.4050-1.4120
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th July 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,786¬-1,780 1,774 1,769-1,760
Silver-XAG 25.05-24.75 24.50 24.00-23.50
Crude Oil 71.90-71.65 71.00 70.10-69.40
EURO/USD 1.1840-1.1770 1.1690 1.1610-1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3890-1.3810 1.3750 1.3720-1.3685
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.50 107.50-106.80

Intra-Day Strategy (29th July 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1809.76/oz and low of US$1792.50/oz. Gold up 0.455% at US$1806.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1843) and breakage below will call for 1800. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1790-1769 with risk below 1760, targeting 1800-1812-1820 and 1833-1840-1854. Sell in between 1812-1860 keeping stop loss closing above 1860, targeting 1800-1790 and 1771-1767-1755.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,786¬-1,780
S2     1,774
S3     1,769-1,760
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,800-1,812
R2     1,820
R3     1,833-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.215

Buy
20-DMA   1820.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1832.84

Sell
100-DMA   1790.71 Sell
200-DMA   1830.21 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -23.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.00/oz and low of US$24.59/oz settled up by 1.041% at US$24.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.05-23.50, targeting 25.50-26.00-26.65 and 26.90-27.55-27.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 23.50. Sell in between 25.50-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.05-24.75
S2     24.50
S3     24.00-23.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.50
R2     26.00
R3     26.50-26.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.4015 Buy
20-DMA   25.66 Sell
50-DMA   26.10 Sell
100-DMA   26.18 Sell
200-DMA   25.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.413 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.4390 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$72.34/bbl, intraday low of US$71.47/bbl and settled up by 0.614% to close at US$72.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 72.00-69.00 with risk daily closing below 66.90 and targeting 72.50-73.40 and 74.00-74.50. Sell in between 72.60-74.05 with stop loss at 74.05; targeting 71.65-71.00-70.10 and 69.40-68.50-67.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     71.90-71.65
S2     71.00
S3     70.10-69.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     72.60-73.00
R2     73.40
R3     74.00-74.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.266 Sell
20-DMA   74.51 Buy
50-DMA   72.21 Buy
100-DMA   70.01 Buy
200-DMA   59.74 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.767 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1771/EUR, high of US$1.1848/EUR and settled the day up by 0.230% to close at US$1.1843/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1840-1.1770
S2     1.1690
S3     1.1610-1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1910
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2040-1.2080

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.525 Buy
20-DMA   1.1820 Sell
50-DMA   1.1830 Sell
100-DMA   1.1961 Sell
200-DMA   1.1915 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   0.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3841/GBP, high of US$1.3910/GBP and settled the day up by 0.151% to close at US$1.3898/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.4079) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3955-1.4120 with targets at 1.3890-1.3810-1.3750 and 1.3685-1.3600-1.3520 stop-loss should be 1.4120. Buy above 1.3890-1.3600 with targets 1.3955-1.4020 and 1.4050-1.4120 with stop loss closing below 1.3600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3890-1.3810
S2     1.3750
S3     1.3720-1.3685

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3955
R2     1.4020
R3     1.4050-1.4120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.207

Buy
20-DMA   1.3812 Sell
50-DMA   1.3882 Sell
100-DMA   1.3864 Sell
200-DMA   1.3689 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.73/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.28/USD and settled the day up 0.142% at JPY109.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 109.70-109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.50
S3     107.50-106.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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