AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia in the run-up to the latest U.S. jobs report. The data could see the U.S. tighten its monetary policy earlier than Europe and Japan, where the prospect still remains distant. The Bank of England (BOE) kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.10%, with other policy settings also remaining unchanged, as it handed down its policy decision on Thursday. The BOE did, however, outline a plan towards asset tapering and interest rate hikes in the years to come. The Reserve Bank of India also handed down its policy decision earlier in the day. U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida's comments earlier in the week, where he said conditions for an interest rate hike could be met in late 2022, led to a sharper focus on the labor market’s recovery from COVID-19 and the U.S. jobs report, due later in the day. Should the number exceed a million, it could send the dollar and U.S. yields sharply higher, while a number under 650,000 could rattle nerves, though perhaps not the dollar if it benefits from investors' risk-aversion, he added. Investors also digested a mixed back of U.S. economic data released earlier in the week. The data, released on Wednesday, said the ADP non-farm employment change was at 330,000 in July, the services purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 59.9, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing employment was at 53.8 and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was at 64.1. However, investors cheered a drop in U.S. initial jobless claims, with 385,000 claims submitted during the past week. The pound jumped against the dollar Thursday, after the Bank of England left interest rates steady, but signaled its warming up to the idea of tightening monetary policy as the central bank reined in its threshold to begin the tapering of bonds purchases. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 0.1%, and its monthly bond purchases steady at £895 billion. In a sign of the appetite to tightened policy earlier than expected, however, the members of the central bank’s monetary policy committee voted 7 to 1 voted to keep asset purchases steady until its benchmark rate reaches 0.5%. The central previously said it wouldn’t reverse quantitative easing until the rate reached 1.5%. But despite the change in strategy, the bank isn’t likely to aggressively hike rates. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 880,000 jobs in July, up from 850,000 in June. Economists have warned that the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and mixed readings from labor market indicators make estimates for July troublesome. The British pound was up 0.3% to $1.3931 by 3:06 p.m. ET after the Bank of England kept the size of its bond-buying programme unchanged and held its benchmark interest rate at a historic low of 0.1%. The central bank said it would start reducing its stock of bonds when its policy rate reaches 0.5% by not reinvesting proceeds and that it would consider actively selling down holdings when the rate reaches at least 1%.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, but remained near the key $1,800 mark as investors await the latest U.S. jobs report. The U.S. report, including non-farm payrolls data, is due later in the day and could dictate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next policy move. However, a complete meltdown in gold is highly unlikely and support level of $1,790 should hold, he added. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s remarks earlier in the week that conditions for a rate hike could be met in late 2022 sparked concerns that asset tapering could begin as early as this year. His views were echoed by Fed Governor Christopher Waller as the economic recovery from COVID-19 continues and the labor market improves.
  • Oil prices extended gains on Friday, but remained on track for their biggest weekly decline since March as travel restrictions to curb the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant are raising concerns about fuel demand. Japan is poised to expand emergency restrictions to more prefectures while China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, has imposed curbs in some cities and cancelled flights, threatening fuel demand. Daily new COVID-19 cases in the United States have climbed to a six-month high. However, worries over rising tensions between Israel and Iran limited the decline in prices. He said that oil's upside has also been capped by improving crude supplies in the United States while non-farm payroll data due later on Friday has lent a cautious air to trading. Oil was up Friday morning in Asia but headed towards its biggest decline since late October 2020. Concerns as countries implement restrictive measures to curb their latest COVID-19 outbreaks continue to cloud the fuel demand outlook. However, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel helped cap the black liquid's losses. Japan extended its state of emergency earlier in the week to more prefectures outside Tokyo, while China, the world’s top oil importer, imposed restrictive measures as it deals with its latest outbreak. CMC Markets analyst Kelvin Wong also said that oil's upside has been capped by improving crude supplies in the U.S., while the lead-up to the latest U.S. jobs report, including non-farm payrolls data, due later in the day, caused investors to be cautious.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th August 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,820 1,833 1,840-1,845
Silver-XAG 26.00-26.50 26.90 27.50-28.20
Crude Oil 69.50-70.40 70.80 71.20-71.80
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1910 1.1990 1.2080-1.2120
GBP/USD 1.3955-1.4020 1.4050 1.4120-1.4150
USD/JPY 110.00-110.50 111.70 112.50-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th August 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,791 1,780 1,767-1,760
Silver-XAG 25.05 24.75 24.50-24.00
Crude Oil 68.80-68.00 67.02 66.50-65.40
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1770 1.1690 1.1610-1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3890-1.3810 1.3750 1.3696-1.3615
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.50 107.50-106.80

Intra-Day Strategy (6th August 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1814.80/oz and low of US$1797.72/oz. Gold down 0.404% at US$1804.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1794-1767 with risk below 1767, targeting 1812-1820-1833 and 1840-1854. Sell in between 1820-1860 keeping stop loss closing above 1860, targeting 1812-1800-1790 and 1780-1767.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,791
S2     1,780
S3     1,767-1,760
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,805-1,820
R2     1,833
R3     1,840-1,845

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.798

Buy
20-DMA   1809.64 Buy
50-DMA  

1812.27

Sell
100-DMA   1812.69 Sell
200-DMA   1808.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -23.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.49/oz and low of US$25.07/oz settled up by 0.883% at US$25.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 25.05-23.50, targeting 25.50-26.00-26.65 and 26.90-27.55-27.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 23.50. Sell in between 25.50-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 26.00-25.70 and 25.05-24.80-24.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     25.05
S2     24.75
S3     24.50-24.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     26.00-26.50
R2     26.90
R3     27.50-28.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.411 Buy
20-DMA   24.58 Sell
50-DMA   25.55 Sell
100-DMA   26.00 Sell
200-DMA   26.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.380 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$69.08/bbl, intraday low of US$67.33/bbl and settled up by 1.507% to close at US$68.81/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 69.50-71.80 with stop loss at 71.80; targeting 68.80-68.00-67.40 and 66.90-66.50-65.40. Buy above 68.80-64.90 with risk daily closing below 64.90 and targeting 69.50 70.40 and 71.00-71.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.80-68.00
S2     67.02
S3     66.50-65.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.50-70.40
R2     70.80
R3     71.20-71.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.198 Sell
20-DMA   71.40 Buy
50-DMA   70.35 Buy
100-DMA   67.02 Buy
200-DMA   60.99 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   22.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.085 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1827/EUR, high of US$1.1856/EUR and settled the day down by 0.020% to close at US$1.1833/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1840-1.2140 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1840-1.1910-1.1990 and 1.2040-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1770
S2     1.1690
S3     1.1610-1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1910
R2     1.1990
R3     1.2080-1.2120

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1805 Sell
50-DMA   1.1903 Sell
100-DMA   1.1948 Sell
200-DMA   1.1911 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0044 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3871/GBP, high of US$1.3948/GBP and settled the day up by 0.293% to close at US$1.3927/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3955-1.4120 with targets at 1.3890-1.3810-1.3750 and 1.3685-1.3600-1.3520 stop-loss should be 1.4120. Buy above 1.3890-1.3600 with targets 1.3955-1.4020 and 1.4050-1.4120 with stop loss closing below 1.3600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3890-1.3810
S2     1.3750
S3     1.3696-1.3615

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3955-1.4020
R2     1.4050
R3     1.4120-1.4150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.930

Buy
20-DMA   1.3839 Buy
50-DMA   1.3886 Buy
100-DMA   1.3867 Buy
200-DMA   1.3696 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.78/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.78/USD and settled the day up 0.268% at JPY109.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.90-111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.00-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 109.00-108.50-108.0 and 107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.50
S3     107.50-106.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.50
R2     111.70
R3     112.50-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.407 Buy
20-DMA   108.83 Sell
50-DMA   109.07 Sell
100-DMA   106.99 Sell
200-DMA   106.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   51.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.103 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING