AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded higher in Europe Tuesday, with the global safe haven receiving a boost from concerns of a Covid-induced global economic slowdown as well as escalating political turmoil in Afghanistan. The disappointing data from China on Monday, when July industrial production and retail sales fell more than expected, is still causing investors to rethink the growth profile of the world’s second-largest economy as it continues to deal with its latest Covid-19 outbreak. The turmoil in Afghanistan has also helped safe havens of all stripes, with concerns that a new Taliban regime could foster instability in neighboring Pakistan and elsewhere in Asia. The release of U.S. retail sales for July later in the session is expected to add to the concerns of a global slowdown, as consumer spending is likely to be hit by the reemergence of the Covid virus. Also of interest, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a town hall for educators later in the day. However, it is widely expected that he will not address monetary policy at this meeting but wait until the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium, due to take place next week. The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia. Disappointing economic data from China, the continuous spread of COVID-19's Delta variant, and political tension in Afghanistan all served to curb the market’s risk appetite, giving the safe-haven U.S. currency a boost. Investors are still digesting Monday’s data from China that said industrial production and retail sales fell more than expected in July as the world’s second-largest economy continues to deal with its latest COVID-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a town hall for educators later in the day. However, it is widely expected that he will not address monetary policy at this meeting but wait until the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium, due to take place next week. The Fed will also release the minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, while U.S. core retail sales and retail sales data will be released later in the day. Developments in Afghanistan, after the Taliban seized the capital city of Kabul, also curbed risk appetite. However, the direct impact for markets has so far been limited, according to some investors.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday, paring earlier gains, as expectations that major producers will not boost supply any time soon were outweighed by worries over slowing demand amid a spike in the Delta variant of coronavirus infections. Japan was set to extend its state of emergency in Tokyo and other regions to Sept. 12 and widen curbs to seven more prefectures, as COVID-19 cases spike while cases are set to "rise substantially" in Sydney in the coming weeks despite a prolonged lockdown, authorities said on Tuesday. The prices recovered from those losses in early Asia trade after four sources told Reuters that OPEC+, which groups members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia, believes oil markets do not need more crude than they plan to release in the coming months. Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden's administration urged the producer group to boost oil output to tackle rising gasoline prices that they see as a threat to the global economic recovery. But the market ran out of steam mid-session amid concerns over the resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic. Worries over weaker demand in China, the world's biggest oil importer, grew on Monday after the nation's daily crude processing in July fell to its lowest level since May 2020 as independent plants slashed production amid tighter quotas, high inventories and weakening profits. China's factory output and retail sales growth also slowed sharply and missed expectations in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted businesses. Hedge funds sold petroleum last week for the sixth time in eight weeks as resurgent coronavirus infections in China, Europe and North America dampened hopes of a rapid resumption in long-distance air travel. U.S. shale oil output is expected to rise to 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the highest since May 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration's monthly drilling productivity report on Monday. Oil was up Tuesday morning in Asia, clawing back some of Monday’s losses as investors went bargain-hunting over expectations that supply will not increase anytime soon. However, gains were capped due to the ever-increasing number of COVID-19 cases that weakened the fuel demand outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) reportedly believes that its planned supply increase is sufficient for the short term, even as the U.S. continues to exert pressure on the cartel to increase supplies and keep prices under control. The market dismissed the rising output in U.S. shale oil, he added. This output is expected to rise to 8.1 mn bpd in September, the highest since May 2020, the Energy Information Administration's monthly drilling productivity report said on Monday. Investors are also worried about weaker fuel demand in China, the top oil importer globally. The country’s daily crude processing in July fell to the lowest since May 2020 as independent plants decreased production due to tighter quotas, high inventories and weakening profits. China’s industrial production and retail sales also grew slower than expected in July, according to data released on Monday. The disappointing data added to fuel demand concerns in the world’s top oil importer. Investors now await U.S. crude oil data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th August 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,817 1,825 1,830-1,844
Silver-XAG 24.00-24.45 24.75 25.05-25.30
Crude Oil 67.00-68.05 68.90 69.45-70.30
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1850 1.1910 1.1950-1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3860-1.3890 1.3955 1.4020-1.4050
USD/JPY 109.60-110.00 110.50 111.70-112.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th August 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,784 1,767 1,760-1,751
Silver-XAG 23.75-23.30 22.90 22.50-22.10
Crude Oil 66.50-65.45 64.90 64.05-63.05
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1705 1.1640 1.1550-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3750 1.3696 1.3615-1.3550
USD/JPY 109.10-108.40 107.45 107.00-106.20

Intra-Day Strategy (17th August 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1789.21/oz and low of US$1770.75/oz. Gold up 0.489% at US$1787.10/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1790-1751 with risk below 1751, targeting 1805-1817-1825 and 1830-1851. Sell in between 1805-1851 keeping stop loss closing above 1851, targeting 1790-1784-1767 and 1760-1751-1742.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,790-1,784
S2     1,767
S3     1,760-1,751
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,805-1,817
R2     1,825
R3     1,830-1,844

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.170

Buy
20-DMA   1784.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.86

Sell
100-DMA   1806.12 Sell
200-DMA   1804.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.88/oz and low of US$23.41/oz settled up by 0.451% at US$23.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.75-21.90, targeting 24.00-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.70-26.00 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.25-22.90-22.50 and 22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.75-23.30
S2     22.90
S3     22.50-22.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.00-24.45
R2     24.75
R3     25.05-25.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.388 Buy
20-DMA   25.80 Sell
50-DMA   25.03 Sell
100-DMA   25.39 Sell
200-DMA   25.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.380 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$68.01/bbl, intraday low of US$65.50/bbl and settled down by 0.638% to close at US$67.17bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.00-70.90 with stop loss at 70.90; targeting 66.50-65.40 and 64.90-64.05-63.20. Buy above 67.00-63.10 with risk daily closing below 64.00 and targeting 68.05-68.80-69.45 and 70.30-70.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     66.50-65.45
S2     64.90
S3     64.05-63.05

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     67.00-68.05
R2     68.90
R3     69.45-70.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.412 Sell
20-DMA   71.84 Buy
50-DMA   69.87 Buy
100-DMA   67.12 Buy
200-DMA   61.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1766/EUR, high of US$1.1800/EUR and settled the day down by 0.133% to close at US$1.1777/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1800-1.1990 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2140. Buy above 1.1750-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1750-1.1840-1.1910 and 1.1990-1.2040-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1705
S2     1.1640
S3     1.1550-1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800-1.1850
R2     1.1910
R3     1.1950-1.1990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3826/GBP, high of US$1.3877/GBP and settled the day down by 0.152% to close at US$1.3839/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3880-1.4120 with targets at 1.3850-1.3810-1.3750 and 1.3685-1.3600-1.3520 stop-loss should be 1.4120. Buy above 1.3810-1.3600 with targets 1.3880-1.3955-1.4020 and 1.4050-1.4120 with stop loss closing below 1.3600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3810-1.3750
S2     1.3696
S3     1.3615-1.3550

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3860-1.3890
R2     1.3955
R3     1.4020-1.4050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.334

Buy
20-DMA   1.3978 Buy
50-DMA   1.3848 Buy
100-DMA   1.3877 Buy
200-DMA   1.3712 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.10/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.74/USD and settled the day down 0.436% at JPY109.17/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.10-106.50 with targets of 109.60-110.00-110.90 and 111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 109.60-114.50 with risk above 114.50 targeting 110.00-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.10-108.40
S2     107.45
S3     107.00-106.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.60-110.00
R2     110.50
R3     111.70-112.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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