AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rose to a nine-month high against its major peers on Thursday, on expectations that the Federal Reserve will start tapering its huge stimulus this year. In minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's July 27-28 meeting released on Wednesday, Fed officials saw the potential to ease bond-buying stimulus this year if the economy continues to improve as expected, although the condition of "substantial further progress" toward maximum employment had not yet been met. A reduction in debt purchases is typically positive for the dollar as the Fed will not be flooding the financial system with as much cash. The focus for Fed watchers now is the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium, which runs Aug. 26 to 28. The kiwi lost support on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delayed becoming the first G10 central bank to raise interest rates during the pandemic, a day after a new outbreak thrust the nation into lockdown. An unexpected drop in the country's unemployment rate to a 12-year low of 4.6% in July only lifted the Aussie briefly, with the data muddied by coronavirus restrictions spurring some people to drop out of the workforce. The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, rising to a nine-month high against both the euro and the riskier Antipodean currencies. The possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin asset tapering in 2021 also gave the U.S. currency a boost. The Fed released the minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday, in which it said that asset tapering could begin later in the year. The condition for the commencement is that economic recovery continues to improve as expected, although "substantial further progress" toward maximum employment is yet to be met. Investors now await the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium, taking place from Aug. 26 to 28, for further clues on the asset tapering and interest rate hike timeline. Some investors shared the Fed’s confidence.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia, with the dollar strengthening after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted that it could begin asset tapering as soon as 2021 in the minutes from its latest meeting. The minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, released on Wednesday, said that officials saw the potential to begin asset tapering in 2021 providing that the economic recovery remains within expectations. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia will hand down its policy decision later in the day. Investors now await the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, due to take place from Aug. 26 to 28. Investors’ speculation about Fed asset tapering, and about what will be said on that subject at the symposium, will determine gold’s price action over the next couple of days, said Rodda. Other investors remained cautious. Gold is “still short of recapturing the key $1,800 level that would be prerequisite to the yellow metal regaining some bullish shine,” Phillip Futures senior commodities manager Avtar Sandu said in a note.
  • Oil prices fell for a sixth day in their longest losing streak since February 2020, as a spike in COVID-19 cases worldwide fuelled fears of lower fuel demand while a surprise build in U.S. gasoline inventories and a stronger dollar added to the pressure. The declines reflect worries over rising coronavirus infections caused by its Delta variant, with virus-related deaths in the United States, the world's largest oil user, spiking over the past month. Slower growth in China, the world's biggest oil importer, caused by new restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 cases and some weakness in U.S. data over the past week have driven the softness in oil prices, Erlam said. An unexpected rise in U.S. gasoline inventories last week also fanned concerns over slowing demand, given demand for gasoline typically peaks during the northern hemisphere summer. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 696,000 barrels to 228.2 million, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, against analysts' expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop. However, U.S. crude inventories fell 3.2 million barrels last week to 435.5 million, their lowest since January 2020, the EIA said. U.S. shale oil output is expected to rise to 8.1 million barrels per day in September, the highest since May 2020, according to the EIA's monthly drilling productivity report. A stronger dollar also weighed on investor sentiment. The dollar rose to a nine-month high against its major peers on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start tapering its huge stimulus this year, making dollar-priced oil more expensive to holders of other currencies. Oil was down Thursday morning in Asia, but remained near three-month lows. An uptick in global COVID-19 cases, alongside a build in U.S. gasoline inventories, all increased pressure on the black liquid. Oil has been hit hard by decreasing demand in China, the top oil importer globally, as restrictive measures to curb the country’s latest COVID-19 outbreak remain in place. Concerns over slower fuel demand were exacerbated by a surprise build in U.S. gasoline inventories. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed a 696,000-barrel build in gasoline supplies. Investing.com forecasts had predicted a draw of 1.671 million barrels, while a 1.4-million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week. The EIA data also showed a 3.234-million-barrel draw in U.S. crude oil supplies in the week to Aug. 13. Investing.com forecasts predicted a 1.055-million-barrel draw, while a 447,000-barrel draw was reported during the previous week. Crude oil data from the American Petroleum Institute released the day before, showed a draw of 1.163 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th August 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,784-1,790 1,805 1,817-1,830
Silver-XAG 23.30-23.75 24.00 24.45-24.75
Crude Oil 64.05-64.90 64.05-64.90 65.45 66.50-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1705-1.1750 1.1800 1.1850-1.1910
GBP/USD 1.3715-1.3750 1.3810 1.3860-1.3890
USD/JPY 110.00¬-110.50 111.70 112.50-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th August 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,767-1,760 1,751 1,743-1,734
Silver-XAG 22.90-22.50 22.15 21.85-21.50
Crude Oil 63.05-62.60 61.60 61.20-60.50
EURO/USD 1.1640-1.1601 1.1550 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3690-1.3650 1.3615 1.3571-1.3550
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (19th August 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1793.74/oz and low of US$1770.75/oz. Gold up 0.109% at US$1787.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1767-1734 with risk below 1734, targeting 1784-1790-1805 and 1817-1825-1830. Sell in between 1784-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1767 -1760-1751 and 1742-1734.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,767-1,760
S2     1,751
S3     1,743-1,734
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,784-1,790
R2     1,805
R3     1,817-1,830

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.170

Buy
20-DMA   1784.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.86

Sell
100-DMA   1806.12 Sell
200-DMA   1804.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.88/oz and low of US$23.41/oz settled up by 0.451% at US$23.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.00-21.90, targeting 24.00-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.50-26.00 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.25-22.90-22.50 and 22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.90-22.50
S2     22.15
S3     21.85-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.30-23.75
R2     24.00
R3     24.45-24.75

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.388 Buy
20-DMA   25.80 Sell
50-DMA   25.03 Sell
100-DMA   25.96 Sell
200-DMA   25.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.380 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$67.19/bbl, intraday low of US$64.12/bbl and settled down by 3.182% to close at US$64.19/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 64.05-67.00 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting 63.20-62.60-61.60 and 61.20-60.50. Buy above 63.05-60.50 with risk daily closing below 60.50 and targeting 64.05*64.90-65.45 and 66.50-67.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.05-62.60
S2     61.60
S3     61.20-60.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.05-64.90 64.05-64.90
R2     65.45
R3     66.50-67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.412 Sell
20-DMA   71.84 Buy
50-DMA   69.87 Buy
100-DMA   67.12 Buy
200-DMA   61.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1693/EUR, high of US$1.1741/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0017% to close at US$1.1709/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1705-1.1910 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1640-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1705-1.1750-1.1800 and 1.1840-1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1640-1.1601
S2     1.1550
S3     1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1705-1.1750
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850-1.1910

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3725/GBP, high of US$1.3785/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0960% to close at US$1.3750/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3712-1.3890 with targets at 1.3685-1.3650-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3690-1.3550 with targets 1.3715-1.3750-1.3810 and 1.3860-1.3890-1.3955 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3690-1.3650
S2     1.3615
S3     1.3571-1.3550

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3715-1.3750
R2     1.3810
R3     1.3860-1.3890

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.544

Buy
20-DMA   1.3931 Buy
50-DMA   1.3820 Buy
100-DMA   1.3861 Buy
200-DMA   1.3714 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.06/USD and settled the day down 0.1889% at JPY109.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 109.60-110.00-110.90 and 111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00¬-110.50
R2     111.70
R3     112.50-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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