AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia but remained near its highest level in more than nine months. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar remained near multi-month lows over persistent concerns about how the continuing spread of COVID-19 globally could impact economic recovery. The continuous surge in COVID-19 will see the U.S. Federal Reserve conduct its annual Jackson Hole symposium online beginning Aug. 26. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained his dovish stance to date. However, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan provided a potential clue before the symposium’s start, saying that his view of beginning asset tapering soon could be adjusted should the COVID-19 Delta variant continue to spread and impact the economic recovery. A delay in the Fed’s asset tapering timeline might not necessarily hurt the dollar, even as bets on it happening earlier than expected had boosted the greenback so far, according to some investors. The region has been struggling to curb the spread of the Delta variant, with vaccination levels remaining below those in the U.S. and U.K. U.S. dollar net longs slid in the latest week, according to Reuters calculations and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position declined to $1.06 billion in the week ended Aug. 17, from $3.08 billion in the previous week. U.S. dollar positioning has been net long for five straight weeks after staying net short for 16 months. U.S. dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the Japanese yen, euro, British pound and Swiss franc, as well as the Canadian and Australian dollars. In a broader measure of dollar positioning that includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Russian ruble, the greenback posted a net long position of $796 million, down from $2.993 billion the previous week. Despite the dip in U.S. dollar net long positioning, the greenback remained supported overall by Delta coronavirus variant concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve could taper asset purchases under its quantitative easing program by the end of the year. The dollar this week posted a 1% gain, the most in two months. The largest positioning change was in the euro, with net longs rising to 57,640 contracts this week, from 33,857 previously.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, with the dollar remaining near multi-month highs. However, continuing concerns about the spread of COVID-19 globally and its impact on the economic recovery turned investors towards the yellow metal. Investors are now looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, due to take place between Aug. 26 and Aug. 28, for clues on the central bank’s timeline for asset tapering and interest Ahead of the symposium, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who is among the Fed officials most supportive of beginning asset tapering soon, said that he might need to adjust that support should the spread of COVID-19's Delta variant impact the economic recovery. The Bank of Korea will also hand down its latest policy decision on Thursday. Top Asian hubs saw physical gold demand slow down during the past week thanks to rebounding domestic prices and the seasonal pause.
  • Oil was up Monday morning in Asia, in a reversal of the previous week’s seven-day losing streak. Investors were busy hunting bargains, but questions remain on how the ever-surging number of COVID-19 cases globally will impact fuel demand. The spread of COVID-19's Delta variant continues, with South Korea and Vietnam among the nations tightening restrictive measures. Japan tripled COVID-19 tests, changing its strategy after daily new infections reached record levels on Friday. Meanwhile, there were no new locally transmitted daily COVID-19 infections in China, the world’s top oil importer. However, the country’s 'zero tolerance' COVID-19 policy, meaning tight restrictive measures to curb the country’s latest outbreak, meant disruptions in shipping and global supply chains as ports were ordered closed. Investors are now looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for further clues on when asset tapering and interest rate hikes will begin. The symposium will take place online from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28. Oil prices rose on Monday, recovering from a seven-day losing streak with support from a weaker dollar, although concern about surging cases of the Delta coronavirus variant led to cautious trading. Many nations are responding to the rising coronavirus infection rate, triggered by the highly transmissible Delta variant, by introducing new travel restrictions. China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has imposed new restrictions with its 'zero tolerance' coronavirus policy, which is affecting shipping and global supply chains. The United States and China have also imposed flight-capacity restrictions. While the pandemic drags on fuel demand, supply is steadily increasing. U.S. production rose to 11.4 million barrels per day in the most recent week, and drilling firms added rigs for the third week in a row, services Company Baker Hughes said. But a slide in the U.S. dollar provided some support, making crude less expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors were also adjusting their positions before the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday, Chen said. The pandemic surge prompted the Fed to move the symposium to an online format, raising questions about the central bank's broader assessment of the Delta variant's economic impact as it inches toward tapering stimulus.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd August 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-¬1,805 1,817 1,830-1,840
Silver-XAG 23.30-23.75 24.00 24.45-24.75
Crude Oil 64.05-64.90 65.45 66.50-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3670-1.3715 1.3750 1.3810-1.3850
USD/JPY 110.00¬-110.50 111.70 112.50-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd August 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,784-1,767 1,760 1,751-1,743
Silver-XAG 22.90-22.50 22.15 21.85-21.50
Crude Oil 63.05-62.60 61.60 64.05-64.90
EURO/USD 1.1705-1.1640 1.1601 1.1550-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3650-1.3610 1.3571 1.3550-1.3500
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd August 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1788.33/oz and low of US$1778.26/oz. Gold down 0.060% at US$1780.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1784-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1790-1805 and 1817-1825-1830. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1784-1767-1760 and 1751-1742-1734.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,784-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,751-1,743
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-¬1,805
R2     1,817
R3     1,830-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.170

Buy
20-DMA   1784.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.86

Sell
100-DMA   1806.12 Sell
200-DMA   1804.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.31/oz and low of US$22.86/oz settled down by 0.848% at US$23.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.00-21.90, targeting 24.00-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.50-26.00 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.25-22.90-22.50 and 22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.90-22.50
S2     22.15
S3     21.85-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.30-23.75
R2     24.00
R3     24.45-24.75

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.388 Buy
20-DMA   25.80 Sell
50-DMA   25.03 Sell
100-DMA   25.96 Sell
200-DMA   25.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.380 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$63.95/bbl, intraday low of US$61.73/bbl and settled down by 1.154% to close at US$61.77/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 64.05-67.00 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting 63.20-62.60-61.60 and 61.20-60.50. Buy above 63.05-60.50 with risk daily closing below 60.50 and targeting 64.05*64.90-65.45 and 66.50-67.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.05-62.60
S2     61.60
S3     64.05-64.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.05-64.90
R2     65.45
R3     66.50-67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.412 Sell
20-DMA   71.84 Buy
50-DMA   69.87 Buy
100-DMA   67.12 Buy
200-DMA   61.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1663/EUR, high of US$1.1703/EUR and settled the day down by 0.1910% to close at US$1.1696/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1910 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1705-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1750-1.1800 and 1.1840-1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1705-1.1640
S2     1.1601
S3     1.1550-1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3601/GBP, high of US$1.3643/GBP and settled the day down by 0.129% to close at US$1.3621/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3650-1.3810 with targets at 1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3690-1.3550 with targets 1.3715-1.3750-1.3810 and 1.3860-1.3890-1.3955 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3650-1.3610
S2     1.3571
S3     1.3550-1.3500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3670-1.3715
R2     1.3750
R3     1.3810-1.3850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.544

Buy
20-DMA   1.3931 Buy
50-DMA   1.3820 Buy
100-DMA   1.3861 Buy
200-DMA   1.3714 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.56/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.87/USD and settled the day up 0.103% at JPY109.79/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 109.60-110.00-110.90 and 111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00¬-110.50
R2     111.70
R3     112.50-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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