AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia after its sharpest one-day fall since May 2021. However, investors kept moves small ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve symposium that could herald the beginning of asset tapering and interest rate hikes. Other investors are doubtful whether the Fed will provide any hints on when it will begin asset tapering during the symposium, which will put pressure on the greenback as it has gained alongside tapering expectations. The dollar stabilized in early European trade Tuesday, following its sharpest one-day fall since May, with traders repositioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting. Helping risk sentiment was the news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted full approval to the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (DE:22UAy), potentially accelerating inoculations as companies mandate jabs in order to return to the office. The dollar was also hard hit Monday as traders reconsidered their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s important Jackson Hole Symposium. Comments made on Friday by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan suggested that the latest wave of Covid-19 could lead the Fed to push back any plans to start reducing its bond purchases. Data on Monday that showed new infections at their highest level since January, while the seven-day average for daily deaths topped 1,000 for the first time since April. The annual Jackson Hole meeting begins on Thursday, held online this year due to the Covid-19 outbreak, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech on Friday had been widely expected to detail the start of the central bank’s tapering of its massive bond-buying program.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, but remained above the $1,800 level. Hopes are also growing that the U.S. Federal Reserve could delay its planned asset tapering thanks to the continuing spread of COVID-19. The latest U.S. economic data released on Monday was mixed, with existing home sales at a higher-than-expected 5.99 million in July. However, August’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), Markit composite PMI and services PMI were 61.2, 55.4, and 55.2 respectively. Further economic data to be released include the GDP for the second quarter on Thursday and the core personal consumption expenditures price index, alongside personal income and spending data, following on Friday. Meanwhile, investors now look to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, due to take place from Aug. 26 to Aug. 28. The central bank is widely expected to provide clues for its next steps regarding asset tapering and interest rate hikes.
  • Oil was up Tuesday morning in Asia, with the U.S. granting the first global full approval for a COVID-19 vaccine, and the expected boost in vaccination rates to follow, increasing hopes for higher fuel demand. The FDA followed up the emergency use authorization it gave the Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Inc/BioNTech SE two-dose vaccine in December 2020 with a full approval for use in those 16 and up. Hopes are rising that the regulator’s approval will boost the U.S. vaccination drive by convincing unvaccinated Americans of the shot’s safety and efficacy. With more state and local governments, as well as private employers, likely to mandate vaccination, the aim is to boost economic recovery and re-openings, which will also boost fuel demand. Investors now await U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day. In India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, refiners' crude throughput in July hit its highest level in three months as rebounding fuel demand supported prices. However, the black liquid’s gains were capped after the U.S. Department of Energy said on Monday that it would sell up to 20 million barrels of crude from the emergency oil reserve. The sales took place in order to comply with legislation passed in recent years, and deliveries are expected to take place between Oct. 1 and Dec. 15. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending sharp gains on a bullish demand outlook as Mexico suffered a big production outage and U.S. regulators issued their first full approval for a COVID-19 vaccine. Both benchmarks jumped more than 5% on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar, after marking their biggest week of losses in more than nine months last week The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Monday issued full approval for the Pfizer/BioNTech two-dose vaccine, having last December authorised it for emergency use. Health officials hope the action will convince unvaccinated Americans that the shot is safe and effective. Analysts said that China's apparent success in combating the spread of the Delta variant also boosted demand sentiment, with no cases of locally transmitted infections reported in latest data. Also supporting oil prices was a fire on an oil platform off Mexico on Sunday that killed five workers and took 421,000 barrels per day of production - about a quarter of the country's overall output - off line. The U.S. Department of Energy said Monday it would sell up to 20 million barrels of crude from the emergency oil reserve to comply with legislation, with deliveries to take place between Oct. 1 and Dec. 15. Meanwhile, Indian refiners' crude throughput in July bounced to its highest in three months as fuel demand rebounded, which supported prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th August 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,805 1,817 1,830-1,840
Silver-XAG 23.75-24.00 24.45 24.75-25.50
Crude Oil 66.50-67.25 68.30 68.60-69.00
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3670-1.3715 1.3750 1.3810-1.3850
USD/JPY 110.00¬-110.50 111.70 112.50-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th August 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,784-1,767 1,760 1,751-1,743
Silver-XAG 23.30-22.90 22.50 22.15-21.85
Crude Oil 65.45-64.90 64.05 63.05-62.60
EURO/USD 1.1705-1.1640 1.1601 1.1550-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.3650-1.3610 1.3571 1.3550-1.3500
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 108.40

Intra-Day Strategy (24th August 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$17/oz and low of US$1778.26/oz. Gold down 0.060% at US$1780.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1784-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1790-1805 and 1817-1825-1830. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1784-1767-1760 and 1751-1742-1734.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,784-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,751-1,743
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,805
R2     1,817
R3     1,830-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.170

Buy
20-DMA   1784.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.86

Sell
100-DMA   1806.12 Sell
200-DMA   1804.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.68/oz and low of US$22.96/oz settled up by 2.542% at US$23.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.00-21.90, targeting 24.00-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.50-26.00 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.25-22.90-22.50 and 22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.30-22.90
S2     22.50
S3     22.15-21.85

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.75-24.00
R2     24.45
R3     24.75-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.923 Buy
20-DMA   24.04 Sell
50-DMA   24.96 Sell
100-DMA   25.50 Sell
200-DMA   25.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.580 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$65.91/bbl, intraday low of US$61.70/bbl and settled up by 5.945% to close at US$65.43/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.50-69.00 with stop loss at 69.00; targeting 65.45-64.90-63.20 and 62.60-61.60. Buy above 64.45-62.60 with risk daily closing below 62.60 and targeting 66.50-67.25-68.30 and 68.60-69.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.45-64.90
S2     64.05
S3     63.05-62.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.50-67.25
R2     68.30
R3     68.60-69.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.412 Sell
20-DMA   71.84 Buy
50-DMA   69.87 Buy
100-DMA   67.12 Buy
200-DMA   61.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1684/EUR, high of US$1.1749/EUR and settled the day up by 0.129% to close at US$1.1744/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1910 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1705-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1750-1.1800 and 1.1840-1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1705-1.1640
S2     1.1601
S3     1.1550-1.1500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3607/GBP, high of US$1.3731/GBP and settled the day up by 0.679% to close at US$1.3715/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3650-1.3810 with targets at 1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3690-1.3550 with targets 1.3715-1.3750-1.3810 and 1.3860-1.3890-1.3955 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3650-1.3610
S2     1.3571
S3     1.3550-1.3500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3670-1.3715
R2     1.3750
R3     1.3810-1.3850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.544

Buy
20-DMA   1.3931 Buy
50-DMA   1.3820 Buy
100-DMA   1.3861 Buy
200-DMA   1.3714 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.14/USD and settled the day up 0.055% at JPY109.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 109.60-110.00-110.90 and 111.70-112.20 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.00-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     108.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00¬-110.50
R2     111.70
R3     112.50-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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