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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia in the wake of U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's dovish speech on bond tapering at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.05% to 6.4678, with Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due on Wednesday. Powell said the Fed is likely to start paring back stimulus measures before the end of 2021 without specifying the timeline. Investors are awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payroll due on Friday to get clues on when the asset tapering will start. The dollar is starting the week little changed, with no real correction after lurching downward on Friday in response to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The greenback had lost around half a percent against its major trading partners on Friday after Powell hinted that the central bank will start to withdraw its monetary stimulus this year, but stressed that that didn’t mean an accelerated timetable for raising interest rates. The closest Powell came to announcing any reduction in the Fed's asset purchases, which have been running at $120 billion since spring 2020, was to say that "if the economy evolves broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year.” That was a much softer line than the one urged by a handful of regional Federal Reserve Presidents during the week, who had argued for tapering to start "sooner rather than later." The apparent reason for Powell's caution was evident in Friday's data for personal spending in July, in which spending on goods fell more than expected and spending on services rose less than expected as a result of the growing impact of the latest Covid-19 wave on consumer activity. Economists across Wall Street - not least those at Goldman Sachs - have been revising down their forecasts for third-quarter growth on the back of similar numbers since the start of the month. The euro was one of the biggest gainers in early trade, hitting a three-week high of $1.1810 before retreating somewhat. The euro was supported by the strong performance of Olaf Scholz in Sunday's televised debate between the major German parties' leaders. The debate was the first to be held ahead of next month's elections, and appears to have cemented the opinion poll lead of Scholz's center-left SPD. As such, Germany is on course to push the center-right Christian Democratic Union out of power for the first time in 16 years. For markets, the most direct consequence of that is likely to be the abandonment of a fiscal policy that has kept government borrowing to a minimum since the Great Financial Crisis. Spain's inflation rate rose to 3.3%, according to figure just released, while German preliminary inflation data are due later in the day. Neither number is likely to shake the European Central Bank out of its taper torpor. Bank of France Governor Phlippe Villeroy de Galhau dominated early headlines with comments that there was no risk of overheating, or a sustained overshoot in inflation in the euro zone. Sterling was becalmed by the closure of London's forex market for the summer bank holiday, something likely to depress trading volumes around the continent. By 3 AM ET, it was up less than 0.1% against the dollar at $1.3769.
  • Oil prices dropped from a four-week high on Monday as Hurricane Ida weakened after forcing precautionary shutdowns of U.S. Gulf oil production, and attention turned to an OPEC meeting on Wednesday to discuss a further output boost. Within 12 hours of coming ashore, the storm had weakened into a Category 1 hurricane. Nearly all offshore Gulf oil production, or 1.74 million barrels per day, was suspended in advance of the storm. While crude fell on anticipation of a quick supply recovery, U.S. gasoline was up almost 3% as power outages added to refinery closures on the Gulf coast and traders weighed the possibility of prolonged disruptions. Brent has rallied almost 40% this year, supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, and some demand recovery from last year's pandemic-induced collapse. OPEC+ meets on Wednesday to discuss a scheduled 400,000 bpd increase in its oil output, in what would be a further easing of the record output cuts made last year. Kuwait's oil minister said on Sunday the increase could be reconsidered, although OPEC delegates have said they expect it to go ahead. OPEC+ is likely to keep its oil output policy unchanged when the group meets on Wednesday and continue with its planned modest production increase, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, will meet on Sept. 1 to discuss the previously agreed increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the next several months. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has urged OPEC and its allies to boost oil output to tackle rising gasoline prices that it views as a threat to the global economic recovery. But the OPEC+ sources said the recent rise in oil prices was temporary, driven mainly by disruption of supply in Mexico and the severe storm hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend. Another OPEC+ said it was "very likely" that the 400,000 bpd increase would go ahead from September. Kuwait oil minister Mohammad al-Fares on Sunday told Reuters that this week OPEC+ would discuss whether it would continue with its planned increase or reconsider it and halt the rise adding that economies of East Asian countries and China were still affected by COVID-19 and caution should be exercised. He later told state news agency KUNA that Kuwait supports any decision taken by OPEC+ ministers based on consensus.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th August 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,817-1,830 1,840 1,851-1,860
Silver-XAG 24.05-24.45 24.75 25.50-26.00
Crude Oil 68.30-68.55 69.00 69.55-70.10
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1850 1.1910 1.1950-1.1990
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3850 1.3900 1.3950-1.3990
USD/JPY 110.54-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th August 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,790 1,784 1,767-1,760
Silver-XAG 23.75-23.30 22.90 22.50-22.15
Crude Oil 67.25-66.50 65.45 64.90-64.05
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1705 1.1640 1.1601-1.1550
GBP/USD 1.3720-1.3670 1.3610 1.3571-1.3550
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th August 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1819.22/oz and low of US$1784.08/oz. Gold up 1.370% at US$1816.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1805-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1817-1825-1830 and 1840-1850. Sell in between 1817-1850 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1805-1784-1767 and 1760-1751-1742.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,805¬-1,790
S2     1,784
S3     1,767-1,760
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,817-1,830
R2     1,840
R3     1,851-1,860

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

37.170

Buy
20-DMA   1784.03 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.86

Sell
100-DMA   1806.12 Sell
200-DMA   1804.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.10/oz and low of US$23.33/oz settled up by 1.927% at US$24.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.80-21.90, targeting 24.00-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.05-26.00 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.75-23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.75-23.30
S2     22.90
S3     22.50-22.15

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.05-24.45
R2     24.75
R3     25.50-26.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.923 Buy
20-DMA   24.04 Sell
50-DMA   24.96 Sell
100-DMA   25.50 Sell
200-DMA   25.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.580 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$68.88/bbl, intraday low of US$67.38/bbl and settled up by 1.280% to close at US$68.51/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 68.30-70.10 with stop loss at 70.10; targeting 67.25-66.50-65.45 and 64.90-63.20-62.60. Buy above 67.25-64.05 with risk daily closing below 64.05 and targeting 68.30-68.60-69.00 and 69.55-70.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     67.25-66.50
S2     65.45
S3     64.90-64.05

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     68.30-68.55
R2     69.00
R3     69.55-70.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.412 Sell
20-DMA   71.84 Buy
50-DMA   69.87 Buy
100-DMA   67.12 Buy
200-DMA   61.39 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1734/EUR, high of US$1.1801/EUR and settled the day up by 0.368% to close at US$1.1794/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1910 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1705-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1750-1.1800 and 1.1840-1.1910-1.1990.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1705
S2     1.1640
S3     1.1601-1.1550

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800-1.1850
R2     1.1910
R3     1.1950-1.1990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3679/GBP, high of US$1.3780/GBP and settled the day up by 0.485% to close at US$1.3764/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3810-1.3990 with targets at 1.3720-1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3720-1.3550 with targets 1.3715-1.3750-1.3810 and 1.3860-1.3890-1.3955 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3720-1.3670
S2     1.3610
S3     1.3571-1.3550

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3810-1.3850
R2     1.3900
R3     1.3950-1.3990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.637

Buy
20-DMA   1.3767 Buy
50-DMA   1.3825 Buy
100-DMA   1.3840 Buy
200-DMA   1.3713 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.26/USD and settled the day down 0.230% at JPY109.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.00-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.55-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.54-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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