AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar sank to its lowest in almost a month against major rivals on Friday, ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report that could spur the Federal Reserve to an earlier tapering of stimulus. The euro was also mostly flat at $1.1876, after hitting the highest since Aug. 4 at $1.1884, supported by regional inflation at a decade high and hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bank officials ahead of a policy meeting on Sept. 9. Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank has made a labour market recovery a condition for paring pandemic-era asset purchases. The dollar had been strengthening for most of last month on the view that a taper could be imminent, even as COVID-19 cases spiked in the United States, which paradoxically gave the currency an additional boost because of its role as a safe haven. But the dollar index retreated after hitting a 9-1/2-month high of 93.734 on Aug. 20 as Fed officials began suggesting the virus' spread could delay policy tightening. Chair Jerome Powell said at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium a week ago that a taper was still possible this year, but there was no hurry to subsequently raise interest rates, sending the dollar down further. Monthly non-farm payrolls, due later on Friday, are expected to rise by 750,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.2% from 5.4%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. However, estimates range widely, from as little as 375,000 to over a million. Signals from the economy ahead of the report have been mixed. Overnight, data showed layoffs dropped to their lowest in more than 24 years. However, the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday was much weaker than economists expected. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) forecasts the United States added 800,000 jobs last month, which it says would be enough to spur the Fed to taper, although the bar for an announcement at this month's meeting has been raised by the current outbreak.
  • The Federal Reserve, and Chairman Jerome Powell in particular, has made a recovery in the country’s labor market a key condition for starting to withdraw its extraordinary monetary stimulus, a move that would benefit the dollar. This puts the official monthly employment report, due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), firmly in investors’ crosshairs, amid worries that spiking Covid-19 cases will weigh on the labor market recovery. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 750,000 in August, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.2% from 5.4%, but this would still represent a fall from the 943,000 jobs created in July, and the omens aren’t positive. ADP private payrolls grew by just 374,000 in August, much lower than the around 600,000 jobs that had been widely expected, while Thursday’s weekly jobless claims only showed a small improvement. The Fed is likely to wait until November to announce the tapering of its asset purchases, former Federal Reserve official Dennis Lockhart said on Thursday, providing policymakers with more data on the labor market's recovery and economic growth. The euro has been bid of late, helped by sIgns of economic growth in the eurozone as well as rising inflationary pressure, with annual PPI climbing to 12.1% in July, data showed Thursday. The European Central Bank is due to meet next week, and the policymakers are sure to have a vigorous discussion about the gradual scaling back of the central bank’s monetary stimulus. USD/CNY edged higher to 6.4582 after China’s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index for August fell into contraction territory at 46.7, the lowest level since April 2020.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Friday after a strong rise in the previous session on a weaker dollar and a fall in U.S. crude stocks and were set for modest weekly gains ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. monthly jobs report. The move down in WTI was likely due to traders squaring positions ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August, on worries the report may be weaker than consensus forecasts, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. However, some analysts see room for further oil price gains amid tightening crude supplies and signs of recovering fuel demand. The increase this week has also come amid a falling U.S. dollar, which makes oil cheaper in other currencies, and the fallout from Hurricane Ida. About 1.7 million barrels per day of oil production remains shut in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, with damage to heliports and fuel depots slowing the return of crews to offshore platforms, sources told Reuters. Offsetting the supply impact, oil demand has been curbed as extended power outages are slowing the reopening of refineries that were shut in Louisiana. Demand is likely to be in focus after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, this week stuck to their plan to add 400,00 barrels per day (bpd) back to the market over the next few months amid surging COVID-19 cases, analysts said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,819-1,830 1,840 1,851-1,860
Silver-XAG 24.20-24.45 24.75 25.50-26.00
Crude Oil 70.10-70.95 71.50 71.90-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1910 1.1950-1.1985 1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3850-1.3900 1.3950 1.3990-1.4040
USD/JPY 110.54-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,790 1,784 1,767-1,760
Silver-XAG 23.75-23.30 22.90 22.50-22.05
Crude Oil 69.55-69.00 68.30 67.25-66.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1800 1.1750 1.1705-1.1640
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3720 1.3670 1.3610-1.3571
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1817.03/oz and low of US$1804.74/oz. Gold down 0.232% at US$1809.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1805-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1817-1825-1830 and 1840-1850. Sell in between 1817-1850 keeping stop loss closing above 1830, targeting 1805-1784-1767 and 1760-1751-1742.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,805-1,790
S2     1,784
S3     1,767-1,760
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,819-1,830
R2     1,840
R3     1,851-1,860

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.728

Buy
20-DMA   1795.09 Sell
50-DMA  

1798.58

Sell
100-DMA   1803.77 Sell
200-DMA   1803.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.20/oz and low of US$23.77/oz settled down by 0.978% at US$23.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.75-21.90, targeting 24.05-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.45-26.00 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.75-23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.75-23.30
S2     22.90
S3     22.50-22.05

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.20-24.45
R2     24.75
R3     25.50-26.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.870 Buy
20-DMA   24.20 Sell
50-DMA   24.00 Sell
100-DMA   24.78 Sell
200-DMA   25.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.580 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$70.41/bbl, intraday low of US$67.67/bbl and settled up by 2.20% to close at US$69.58/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.55-69.00
S2     68.30
S3     67.25-66.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.10-70.95
R2     71.50
R3     71.90-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.950 Sell
20-DMA   68.10 Buy
50-DMA   68.61 Buy
100-DMA   67.12 Buy
200-DMA   62.23 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1833/EUR, high of US$1.1874/EUR and settled the day up by 0.304% to close at US$1.1874/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1910-1.2050 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1640-1.1601-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1850-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1800
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1705-1.1640

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1910
R2     1.1950-1.1985
R3     1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3764/GBP, high of US$1.3839/GBP and settled the day up by 0.464% to close at US$1.3831/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3850-1.3990 with targets at 1.3720-1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3810-1.3550 with targets 1.3715-1.3750-1.3810 and 1.3860-1.3890-1.3955 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3810-1.3720
S2     1.3670
S3     1.3610-1.3571

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3850-1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.3990-1.4040

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.637

Buy
20-DMA   1.3767 Buy
50-DMA   1.3825 Buy
100-DMA   1.3840 Buy
200-DMA   1.3713 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.90/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.11/USD and settled the day up 0.006% at JPY109.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.55-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.54-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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