AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining near recent lows. Investors now await a central bank policy decision from Australia, and other central bank decisions due throughout the week, for any clues that they will begin asset tapering. With the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to delay beginning asset tapering after the latest U.S. jobs report, the focus is now on policy decisions outside the U.S. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will go first, handing down its decision later in the day. If RBA pauses its asset tapering plans, investors are likely to sell the Australian dollar and possibly push it towards its support level of around $0.7420. A hawkish central bank would send the currency higher, according to IG Markets analyst Kyle Rodda. The European Central Bank’s policy decision will round up the week on Thursday The U.S. report, released during the previous week, showed that non-farm payrolls were lower than expected and put paid to expectations that the Fed would announce it is beginning asset tapering in September. But how long this delay could be will not be clear for another month, NatWest's head strategist John Briggs said in a note. In Asia Pacific, Chinese trade data, including imports, exports and the trade balance, will be released later in the day. Further data, including the consumer and producer price indexes, will be released on Thursday.
  • The dollar erased all losses sustained after last week's poor U.S. jobs report and extended broad gains on Monday as concerns about slowing global growth boosted its safe-haven appeal in holiday-calmed trade. While the weak jobs report doused expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve might strike a hawkish note at a meeting later this month, analysts said the data is yet another reminder of global growth losing steam after a bounce earlier this year, a significant headwind for cyclical currencies such as the euro and the Aussie dollar. Though currencies stuck to recent well-worn trading ranges, the underlying sentiment turned in favour of the dollar in London trading as fears rose the global economy is set for a rough patch. U.S. markets are shut for a holiday. Economic surprise indexes from the United States to China have slipped sharply in recent weeks while latest manufacturing surveys from Britain to Japan show the rise in coronavirus delta cases is sapping sentiment. The weak jobs report did not spark a new wave of dollar selling on Monday as the greenback spent the Asian and European session pushing higher against its rivals, prompting some major currencies including the euro and the Australian dollar to move back to pre-Friday jobs report levels. While analysts remain bearish on the outlook for the greenback with Citibank strategists expecting it to weaken in the coming months as the Fed postpones tapering plans to November, hedge funds have quietly ramped up bullish bets. Latest data showed they have increased bets on the greenback versus the euro for a second consecutive week, boosting net bets to their highest since March 2020. Most of the dollar's gains was focused on the Australian dollar, which weakened 0.2% to $0.7436 ahead of a central bank decision on Tuesday where analysts remain divided on whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will call time on its stimulus plans. National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) predicts the central bank will reduce asset purchases again, "although the optics of tapering amid protracted lockdowns means it is likely to be a close decision," NAB analyst Tapas Strickland wrote in a report. Economists reckon it is still too early for the ECB to call time on emergency stimulus, but it could agree to slow the pace of its bond buys after euro area inflation surged to a 10-year high at 3% last week.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday in quiet trade as some investors scooped up bargains following the recent losses while growing fears over slower demand after Saudi Arabia's sharp cuts to crude contract prices for Asia weighed on sentiment. Demand woes grew after state oil group Saudi Aramco (SE:2222) notified customers that it will cut October official selling prices (OSPs) for all crude grades sold to Asia by at least $1 a barrel. The deep price cuts, a sign that consumption in the world's top-importing region remains tepid, come as lockdowns across Asia to combat the delta variant of the coronavirus have clouded the economic outlook. Markets are also contending with a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, to raise output by 400,000 barrels per day a month between August and December. The U.S. economy created the fewest jobs in seven months in August as hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector stalled amid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections, which weighed on demand at restaurants and hotels. Oil prices were underpinned, however, by concerns that U.S. supply would remain limited in the wake of Hurricane Ida. More than 80% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut after Ida, a U.S. regulator said on Monday, more than a week after the storm made landfall and hit critical infrastructure in the region. Hedge funds purchased petroleum last week at the second-fastest rate this year after Ida disrupted offshore oil wells and onshore refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. Also providing a support, China's daily crude oil imports rose 8% in August from a month earlier, customs data showed on Tuesday, as refiners resumed purchases following the issue of new import quotas.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,819-1,830 1,840 1,851-1,860
Silver-XAG 24.45-24.75 25.50 26.00-26.70
Crude Oil 69.10-69.55 70.10 71.50 -71.90
EURO/USD 1.1910 1.1950-1.1985 1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3850-1.3900 1.3950 1.3990-1.4040
USD/JPY 110.54-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,810-1,805 1,790 1,784-1,767
Silver-XAG 24.20-23.75 23.30 22.90-22.50
Crude Oil 68.30-67.15 66.80 66.00-65.40
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1800 1.1750 1.1705-1.1640
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3720 1.3670 1.3610-1.3571
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (7th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1830.14/oz and low of US$1821.35/oz. Gold down 0.275% at US$1823.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1811-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1819-1830-1840 and 1850-1861-1870. Sell in between 1819-1861 keeping stop loss closing above 1861, targeting 1811-1805-1784 and 1767-1760-1751.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,810-1,805
S2     1,790
S3     1,784-1,767
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,819-1,830
R2     1,840
R3     1,851-1,860

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.728

Buy
20-DMA   1795.09 Sell
50-DMA  

1798.58

Sell
100-DMA   1803.77 Sell
200-DMA   1803.77 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -15.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.80/oz and low of US$23.62/oz settled down by 0.186% at US$24.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-21.90, targeting 24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.45-26.70 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.75-23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.20-23.75
S2     23.30
S3     22.90-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.45-24.75
R2     25.50
R3     26.00-26.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.250 Buy
20-DMA   24.12 Sell
50-DMA   24.71 Sell
100-DMA   25.28 Sell
200-DMA   25.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$69.30/bbl, intraday low of US$68.10/bbl and settled down by 0.581% to close at US$68.59/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 69.00-71.90 with stop loss at 71.90; targeting 68.3-67.90 and 67.25-66.50. Buy above 68.30-65.40 with risk daily closing below 65.05 and targeting 69.00-69.55-70.10 and 70.95-71.50-71.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.30-67.15
S2     66.80
S3     66.00-65.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.10-69.55
R2     70.10
R3     71.50 -71.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.786 Sell
20-DMA   68.07 Buy
50-DMA   68.58 Buy
100-DMA   67.14 Buy
200-DMA   62.29 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1885/EUR, high of US$1.1885/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0782% to close at US$1.1869/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1910-1.2050 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1640-1.1601-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1850-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1850-1.1800
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1705-1.1640

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1910
R2     1.1950-1.1985
R3     1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3817/GBP, high of US$1.3867/GBP and settled the day down by 0.142% to close at US$1.3830/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3850-1.3990 with targets at 1.3720-1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3810-1.3550 with targets 1.3715-1.3750-1.3810 and 1.3860-1.3890-1.3955 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3810-1.3720
S2     1.3670
S3     1.3610-1.3571

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3850-1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.3990-1.4040

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.637

Buy
20-DMA   1.3767 Buy
50-DMA   1.3825 Buy
100-DMA   1.3840 Buy
200-DMA   1.3713 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.61/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.94/USD and settled the day up 0.128% at JPY109.82/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.55-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.54-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.86 Sell
50-DMA   109.86 Sell
100-DMA   109.34 Sell
200-DMA   108.39 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.110 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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