AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar headed for its first winning week in three on Friday after rebounding from a payrolls-induced sell-off, as investors continued to ponder the timing of a tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus. Last Friday, it sank to the lowest since Aug. 3 at 91.941 after data showed the U.S. economy created the fewest jobs for seven months, reducing the odds of an imminent reduction of the Fed's asset-purchase programme. Since then, a number of officials have come out to suggest a taper is still likely this year , including Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who said overnight the weak August labour report won't throw the central bank off course. Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester is scheduled to speak about monetary policy later on Friday at a Bank of Finland event. Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 18 months, offering more evidence that job growth was being hindered by labor shortages rather than cooling demand for workers. However, even with the trend toward monetary policy becoming less accomodative globally, financial conditions remain ultra-loose, which "binds how much room the USD has to run and favors selling rallies," McCormick said. HSBC, though, is more positive on the dollar's outlook. The single currency got some small measure of support overnight, after the European Central Bank said it would trim emergency bond purchases over the coming quarter, as widely expected. In the past two quarters, the bank has bought around 80 billion euros worth of debt each month. It provided no numerical guidance for the three months ahead, but analysts had predicted before the meeting that purchases would fall to between 60 billion and 70 billion euros in those months.
  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, rebounding from a selloff triggered by the latest U.S. jobs report. However, investors continue to bet on when the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin asset tapering. The dollar sank to its lowest level since Aug. 3 during the previous week after the release of the jobs report for August. The report, which was much weaker than expected, reduced expectations of the Fed beginning asset tapering. However, the Fed could still be on course to begin the process later in 2021, with Governor Michelle Bowman suggesting overnight that the report would not necessarily deter the central bank. Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that Americans filed 310,000 initial jobless claims throughout the week, the lowest number in almost 18 months However, even with the trend toward monetary policy becoming less accommodative globally, financial conditions remain ultra-loose, which "binds how much room the dollar has to run and favors selling rallies," the note added. Across the Atlantic, the euro was flat at $1.18235 and set for a 0.47% decline to end the week. However, ECB’s policy decision, handed down on Thursday, did give the single currency a small boost Although the central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0%, it indicated it would slow the pace of purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program in the fourth quarter of 2021 But with ECB President Christine Lagarde assuring markets that “the lady isn’t tapering” and the decision well within expectations, some investors were not surprised. The dollar dipped on Thursday as Treasury yields fell after the U.S. government saw strong demand for a sale of 30-year bonds, while the euro was supported after the European Central Bank said it would trim emergency bond purchases over the coming quarter. Investors are focused on when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin paring bond purchases as it balances rising price pressures against a still relatively soft employment picture. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Thursday said the U.S. economy is "not out of the woods yet," and that despite strong economic growth and the promise of vaccines, challenges remain, including supply chain and labor market bottlenecks. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, meanwhile, added her voice to the growing number of policymakers who say the weak August jobs report likely won't throw off the central bank's plan to trim its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases later this year. Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 18 months, offering more evidence that job growth was being hindered by labor shortages rather than cooling demand for workers. The euro was also supported after the ECB maintained a dovish tone and offered no major surprises as it took a first small step toward unwinding the emergency aid that has propped up the euro zone economy during the pandemic. In the past two quarters, the bank has purchased around 80 billion euros worth of debt each month. It provided no numerical guidance for the three months ahead, but analysts had predicted before the meeting that purchases would fall to between 60 billion and 70 billion euros in those months.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday on growing signs of tightness in U.S. markets after Hurricane Ida hit offshore output, although benchmarks were heading for weekly losses of nearly 1% after China announced plans to sell crude from its strategic reserves. Some analysts said the announcement had likely been made to confirm the sale of reserves in July and August. Energy Aspects analyst Liu Yuntao said the release from the reserve came as Chinese majors had to replace supplies they had bought for September and October loadings from Shell (LON:RDSa) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Almost 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of offshore oil production remains shut. To cushion the impact, the U.S. Energy Department said on Thursday it has approved a second loan of 1.5 million barrels of oil. On the demand side, some U.S. airlines, key to a recovery in jet fuel markets, warned of a slowdown in ticket sales.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,810 1,819 1,830-1,840
Silver-XAG 24.20-24.45 24.75 25.50-26.00
Crude Oil 69.10-69.55 70.10 71.50 -71.90
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1910 1.1950 1.1985-1.2050
GBP/USD 1.3850 1.3900 1.3950-1.3990
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,784 1,767 1,760-1,751
Silver-XAG 24.05-23.75 23.30 22.90-22.50
Crude Oil 68.30-67.15 66.80 66.00-65.40
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1750 1.1705-1.1640
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3720 1.3670 1.3610-1.3571
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (10th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1800.90/oz and low of US$1792.43/oz. Gold down 0.288% at US$1794.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     ¬1,790-1,784
S2     1,767
S3     1,760-1,751
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,805-1,810
R2     1,819
R3     1,830-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.744

Buy
20-DMA   1801.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1801.06

Sell
100-DMA   1804.52 Sell
200-DMA   1804.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   26.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$24.27/oz and low of US$23.83/oz settled up by 0.284% at US$24.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-21.90, targeting 24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.45-26.70 with stop loss above 26.00; targeting 23.75-23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.05-23.75
S2     23.30
S3     22.90-22.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.20-24.45
R2     24.75
R3     25.50-26.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.250 Buy
20-DMA   24.12 Sell
50-DMA   24.71 Sell
100-DMA   25.28 Sell
200-DMA   25.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.556 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$69.65/bbl, intraday low of US$67.36/bbl and settled down by 2.095% to close at US$67.69/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 69.00-71.90 with stop loss at 71.90; targeting 68.3-67.90 and 67.25-66.50. Buy above 68.30-65.40 with risk daily closing below 65.05 and targeting 69.00-69.55-70.10 and 70.95-71.50-71.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     68.30-67.15
S2     66.80
S3     66.00-65.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     69.10-69.55
R2     70.10
R3     71.50 -71.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.125 Sell
20-DMA   68.14 Buy
50-DMA   68.57 Buy
100-DMA   67.19 Buy
200-DMA   62.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1804/EUR, high of US$1.1840/EUR and settled the day up by 0.071% to close at US$1.1824/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1850-1.2050 targeting 1.1850-1.1800-1.1750 and 1.1640-1.1601-1.1550 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1800-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800
S2     1.1750
S3     1.1705-1.1640

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1910
R2     1.1950
R3     1.1985-1.2050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   8.891 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3752/GBP, high of US$1.3861/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0957% to close at US$1.3832/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3810-1.3990 with targets at 1.3720-1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3720-1.3550 with targets 1.3810-1.3860-1.3890 and 1.3955-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3810-1.3720
S2     1.3670
S3     1.3610-1.3571

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3850
R2     1.3900
R3     1.3950-1.3990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.646

Buy
20-DMA   1.3723 Buy
50-DMA   1.3821 Buy
100-DMA   1.3835 Buy
200-DMA   1.3722 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0003 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.56/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.27/USD and settled the day down 0.49% at JPY109.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.89 Sell
50-DMA   109.87 Sell
100-DMA   109.48 Sell
200-DMA   108.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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