AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar strengthened to a two-week high versus a basket of major currencies on Monday as market expectation builds that the Federal Reserve could taper its stimulus sooner rather than later despite a surge in COVID-19 cases. A flurry of U.S. economic data is due out this week, starting with U.S. consumer price data on Tuesday, which will frame the economy's progress ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. The Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker became the latest offical to say he wants the central bank to start tapering this year, saying in a Nikkei interview that he was keen to scale back asset purchases. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Fed officials will seek to make an agreement to begin paring bond purchases in November. Further U.S. data this week should help set the tone ahead of the meeting, with retail sales and productions figures also slated for later this week. The euro was among the currencies to lose ground to the dollar, dipping 0.3% to $1.17750, its lowest level in a little over two weeks, after the European Central Bank said last week it would start to trim its own emergency bond purchases. The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, continuing its gains from the previous week. Investors remain wary of the U.S. Federal Reserve beginning asset tapering even as the number of COVID-19 cases surges globally. The U.S. will release consumer price index data on Tuesday, while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker joined the calls to begin asset tapering sooner rather than later.
  • The dollar traded higher Monday, with traders starting to focus on the upcoming U.S. inflation numbers as the debate surrounding the timing of the start of the Federal Reserve’s tapering continues. The dollar has posted its first winning week in three on Friday, and this positive tone has continued at the start of this week, as a number of members of the Federal Reserve continued to point to a reasonably prompt tapering of its bond-buying program despite the rising numbers of Covid-19 cases and the disappointing recent nonfarm payrolls release. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker continued the theme Monday, in a Nikkei interview, indicating that he was keen to begin scaling back asset purchases. This puts the Fed’s get together later in September firmly in focus. Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price data, along with retail sales and production figures later in the week, will be studied carefully in the lead-up to the central bank meeting. A key batch of economic data is due for release on Wednesday, including retail sales and industrial production, and these numbers could add to concerns about the world's second biggest economy.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia as the dollar continued to strengthen. Investors now look to U.S. data for further clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s timetable to begin asset tapering. Investors await U.S. consumer price index data due on Tuesday, after Friday’s data showed that the producer price index (PPI) for August grew 0.7% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year. The core PPI grew 0.6% and 6.7% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she would still like the central bank to begin tapering asset purchases in 2021. Mester is one of a growing number of Fed officials who support beginning asset tapering sooner rather than later despite a weaker-than-expected August U.S. jobs report. In Asia Pacific, China will release industrial production and fixed asset investment data on Wednesday. On the demand side, physical gold demand in India was subdued during the previous week despite a correction in bullion prices. Consumers in most other Asian hubs also remained quiet as they await a clearer trend in global prices. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed investors cut their net long positions in COMEX gold by 15,324 contracts to 83,540 in the week ended Sep. 7.
  • Oil prices rose for a second session on Monday as concerns over shut output in the United States, the world's biggest producer, following damage from Hurricane Ida supported the market, along with expectations for higher demand. About three-quarters of the offshore oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, or about 1.4 million barrels per day, has remained halted since late August, roughly equal to what OPEC member Nigeria produces. U.S. refiners are coming back faster than oil production from the impact of Hurricane Ida, a reverse of past storm recoveries. Most of the nine Louisiana refineries impacted by the storm have restarted or were restarting on Friday The bank estimated that the storm caused U.S. oil inventories to decline by about 30 million barrels and could push up U.S. refining margins and further widen the price spread between WTI and Brent. Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSa) Plc, the largest oil producer in the U.S. Gulf, on Thursday cancelled some export cargoes because of damage to offshore facilities from Hurricane Ida, signalling energy losses would continue for weeks. However, the number of rigs in operation in the United States grew in the latest week, energy service provider Baker Hughes said, indicating production may rise in coming weeks. Beyond the impact of Ida, market attention will focus this week on potential revisions to the oil demand outlook from the Organization of the Petroleum Operating Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as coronavirus cases continued to rise. OPEC will likely revise its 2022 forecast lower on Monday, two people familiar with the matter said. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 7, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Supply risks remain from China's planned release of oil from strategic reserves while the hope of fresh talks on a wider nuclear deal between Iran and the West was raised after the U.N. atomic watchdog reached an agreement with Iran on Sunday about the overdue servicing of monitoring equipment to keep it running. China said on Monday it will announce details of planned crude oil sales from strategic reserves in due course.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,805 1,810 1,819-1,830
Silver-XAG 23.75-24.05 24.20 24.45-24.75
Crude Oil 70.10-70.95 71.50 71.90-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1800 1.1850-1.1910 1.1950
GBP/USD 1.3850 1.3900 1.3950-1.3990
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,784 1,767 1,760-1,751
Silver-XAG 23.30-22.90 22.50 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 69.55-69.10 68.30 67.15-66.80
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1705 1.1640 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3720 1.3670 1.3610-1.3571
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (13th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1803.80/oz and low of US$1787.12/oz. Gold down 0.377% at US$1787.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1784-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1805-1819-1830 and 1840-1850-1861. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 18, targeting 1784-1767 and 1760-1751.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,784
S2     1,767
S3     1,760-1,751
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,790-1,805
R2     1,810
R3     1,819-1,830

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.744

Buy
20-DMA   1801.67 Sell
50-DMA  

1801.06

Sell
100-DMA   1804.52 Sell
200-DMA   1804.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   26.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.28/oz and low of US$23.71/oz settled down by 1.181% at US$23.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.50, targeting 23.75-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.75-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.30-22.90
S2     22.50
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.75-24.05
R2     24.20
R3     24.45-24.75

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$69.73/bbl, intraday low of US$67.48/bbl and settled up by 2.44% to close at US$69.39/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.10-71.90 with stop loss at 71.90; targeting 69.55-69.10-68.3 and 67.90-67.25-66.50. Buy above 69.55-66.40 with risk daily closing below 66.40 and targeting 70.10- 70.95 and 71.50-71.90-72.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.55-69.10
S2     68.30
S3     67.15-66.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.10-70.95
R2     71.50
R3     71.90-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.125 Sell
20-DMA   68.14 Buy
50-DMA   68.57 Buy
100-DMA   67.19 Buy
200-DMA   62.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1808/EUR, high of US$1.1850/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0845% to close at US$1.1814/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1800-1.2050 targeting 1.1750-1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1750-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1705
S2     1.1640
S3     1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800
R2     1.1850-1.1910
R3     1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3825/GBP, high of US$1.3887/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0187% to close at US$1.3835/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3810-1.3990 with targets at 1.3720-1.3615-1.3571 and 1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3720-1.3550 with targets 1.3810-1.3860-1.3890 and 1.3955-1.3990 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3810-1.3720
S2     1.3670
S3     1.3610-1.3571

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3850
R2     1.3900
R3     1.3950-1.3990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.646

Buy
20-DMA   1.3723 Buy
50-DMA   1.3821 Buy
100-DMA   1.3835 Buy
200-DMA   1.3722 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0003 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.98/USD and settled the day up 0.240% at JPY109.93/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.89 Sell
50-DMA   109.87 Sell
100-DMA   109.48 Sell
200-DMA   108.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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