AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was little changed against other major currencies on Tuesday as investors looked to U.S. inflation data later in the session for clues on the timing of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy review on Sept 21-22, investors are closely looking at U.S. consumer price data due at 1230 GMT. Economists expect core CPI, an index which strips out volatile energy and food prices, to have risen 0.3% in August from July. Its annual inflation is seen easing slightly to 4.2% from 4.3% in July. Overall consumer price inflation is expected to dip slightly to 5.3% from 5.4% in July. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Fed officials will seek an agreement to begin paring bond purchases in November. Under such market conditions, the dollar is deemed to benefit from funds escaping risk assets. But Chiba said its reaction may be more nuanced. Limited moves in the currency pair saw traders reducing expectations for market swings. Implied volatilities on dollar/yen options have fallen, with six-month volatility falling to as low as 5.405%, its lowest since February last year just before the pandemic Sterling was flat at $1.3842 while the Australian dollar dipped 0.2% to $0.7353 after the country's central bank chief, Philip Lowe, reiterated that interest rates were not expected to rise from record lows until 2024. While the world's stock markets rebounded on Monday after a fall last week, supporting risk sentiment, some analysts also warn of growing headwinds to risk sentiment. Many investors were also keeping an eye on developments in China, where cash-strapped property developer Evergrande struggled to fend off solvency concerns while a relentless wave of regulatory moves by Beijing hit big tech firms. New local COVID-19 infections in China more than doubled after a relative calm in the last few weeks.
  • The dollar edged lower Tuesday, with traders waiting for the release of the latest U.S. inflation numbers for guidance on the timing of the start of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus withdrawal. The main focus Tuesday will be on the release of the U.S. consumer price data, at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), especially with the Federal Reserve's next policy review being so close, on Sept 21-22. Annual consumer price inflation is expected to dip slightly to 5.3% from 5.4% in July, while core CPI, an index which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is seen easing slightly annually to 4.2% from 4.3% in July. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Fed officials will seek an agreement to begin paring bond purchases in November. Elsewhere, the risk sensitive AUD/USD dropped 0.4% to 0.7335, after Australian central bank chief Philip Lowe pushed back against market pricing for early interest-rate increases. The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, as investors await U.S. inflation data that could provide a clue to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s timetable for asset tapering. The U.S. will release consumer price index data later in the day, which will be closely watched by investors. Investors also await the Fed’s policy decision, due to be handed down next week, where the central bank is expected to agree to begin asset tapering in November. Although global shares remain near record highs, increasing investors’ risk appetites, some investors warned of risks up ahead. Another development in China on investors’ radars is China Evergrande Group's debt situation. The cash-strapped property developer is struggling to calm solvency concerns while the country’s tech firms deal with the latest round of regulatory tightening. The dollar climbed to a two-week peak against a basket of currencies on Monday, bolstered by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could reduce its asset purchases by the end of the year despite a surge in COVID-19 cases. A round of U.S. economic data is due out this week, starting with consumer prices on Tuesday, which will give the latest update on how hot inflation has been ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker became the latest official to say he wants the central bank to start tapering this year, saying in a Nikkei interview that he was keen to scale back asset purchases. Tapering talk has boosted the dollar, said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Securities in New York. Tapering typically lifts the dollar as it means a step toward tighter monetary policy. It also means the Fed will be buying fewer debt assets, which suggests there will be fewer dollars in circulation. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Fed officials will seek an agreement to begin paring bond purchases in November. Aside from inflation, U.S. retail sales and production figures are also scheduled for release this week.
  • Oil prices hit a six-week high on Tuesday on concerns that another storm could affect output in Texas this week even as the U.S. industry struggles to return to normal production levels after Hurricane Ida wreaked havoc on the Gulf Coast. Evacuations were underway on Monday from offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil platforms as onshore oil refiners began preparing for Tropical Storm Nicholas, which was heading towards the Texas coast with 70 miles per hour(113 kph) winds, threatening coastal Texas and Louisiana still recovering from Hurricane Ida More than 40% of the U.S. Gulf's oil and gas output remained offline on Monday, two weeks after Ida slammed into the Louisiana coast, according to offshore regulator Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). The price gains also come amid worries over oil disruption in Libya National Oil Corp (NOC) said loading operations at the Libyan oil terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf resumed on Friday after a one-day stoppage, but an engineer at a Hariga port said that port was still closed by protesters The U.S. government agreed to sell crude oil from the nation's emergency reserve to eight companies including Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), under a scheduled auction to raise money for the federal budget. Traders noted China's planned release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) could boost supplies available in the world's the second biggest oil consumer. Hopes for talks on a wider nuclear deal between Iranand the West were raised after the United Nations atomicwatchdog reached an agreement with Tehran on Sunday about theoverdue servicing of monitoring equipment. Adding to price pressures, U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by about 66,000 bpd in October to 8.1 million bpd, the highest since April 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration's monthly drilling productivity report. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), meanwhile, trimmed its world oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021 due to the Delta coronavirus variant while raising the forecast for 2022 to 4.15 million bpd, compared to 3.28 million bpd in last month's report.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,810 1,819 1,830-1,839
Silver-XAG 23.75-24.05 24.20 24.45-24.75
Crude Oil 70.10-70.95 71.50 71.90-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1910 1.1945 1.2010-1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3900-1.3950 1.3990 1.4025-1.4100
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-¬1,784 1,767 1,760-1,751
Silver-XAG 23.50-22.90 22.50 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 69.55-69.10 68.30 67.15-66.80
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1705 1.1640-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3850-1.3810 1.3720 1.3670-1.3610
USD/JPY 109.60-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (14th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1798.35/oz and low of US$1783.64/oz. Gold up 0.305% at US$1793.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1784-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1805-1819-1830 and 1840-1850-1861. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 18, targeting 1784-1767 and 1760-1751.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,790-¬1,784
S2     1,767
S3     1,760-1,751
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,805-1,810
R2     1,819
R3     1,830-1,839

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.737

Buy
20-DMA   1797.79 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.36

Sell
100-DMA   1803.36 Sell
200-DMA   1803.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.84/oz and low of US$23.37/oz settled down by 0.0631% at US$23.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.50, targeting 23.75-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.75-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.50-22.90
S2     22.50
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.75-24.05
R2     24.20
R3     24.45-24.75

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$70.70/bbl, intraday low of US$69.27/bbl and settled up by 1.436% to close at US$70.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.10-71.90 with stop loss at 71.90; targeting 69.55-69.10-68.3 and 67.90-67.25-66.50. Buy above 69.55-66.40 with risk daily closing below 66.40 and targeting 70.10- 70.95 and 71.50-71.90-72.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     69.55-69.10
S2     68.30
S3     67.15-66.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.10-70.95
R2     71.50
R3     71.90-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.125 Sell
20-DMA   68.14 Buy
50-DMA   68.57 Buy
100-DMA   67.19 Buy
200-DMA   62.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.9685 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1769/EUR, high of US$1.1816/EUR and settled the day down by 0.006% to close at US$1.1810/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1850-1.2050 targeting 1.1750-1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1800-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1640-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1910
R2     1.1945
R3     1.2010-1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3796/GBP, high of US$1.3850/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0802% to close at US$1.3837/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3900-1.4100 with targets at 1.3850-1.3720-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3850-1.3550 with targets 1.3890-1.3955-1.3990 and 1.4025-1.4100 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3850-1.3810
S2     1.3720
S3     1.3670-1.3610

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900-1.3950
R2     1.3990
R3     1.4025-1.4100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.943

Buy
20-DMA   1.3749 Buy
50-DMA   1.3806 Buy
100-DMA   1.3823 Buy
200-DMA   1.3725 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0010 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.79/USD and settled the day up 0.0937% at JPY109.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.60-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.89 Sell
50-DMA   109.87 Sell
100-DMA   109.48 Sell
200-DMA   108.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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