AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar drifted in tight trading ranges Wednesday, with the recent release of soft U.S. inflation data raising uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will start its stimulus withdrawal this year. Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data for August came in below expectations, with the core consumer price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, edging up just 0.1% last month. This suggested that the upward pressure on inflation was starting to wane. Several Fed officials have suggested the U.S. central bank could reduce its buying of debt securities by the end of the year, but a weaker-than-expected payrolls report at the start of the month and lessening inflationary pressure has created some doubt ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. U.K. inflation surged more than expected in August, adding to pressure on the Bank of England to rein in its monetary stimulus. Money markets are now pricing in two interest rate hikes from the BoE by the end of next year. Consumer prices jumped 3.2% on the year in August, the most since March 2012, after dipping back to the central bank’s 2% target month before. Ominously, the figures don't even capture the huge spike in energy prices that has happened in the last months. The country’s retail sales grew 2.5% year-on-year, a sharp drop from July’s 8.5% growth and at the slowest pace since August 2020, while industrial output grew 5.3% year-on-year, its weakest pace since July 2020.
  • The dollar held recent ranges against peers on Wednesday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation figures tempered immediate expectations about Federal Reserve tapering while disappointing Chinese data weighed on the yuan and Aussie. The dollar index stood at 92.632, little changed from Tuesday, when it dropped following the inflation data only to recover on haven demand as stocks slid on Wall Street. The index has meandered between 92.3 and 92.9 over the past week as several Fed officials have suggested the U.S. central bank could reduce its buying of debt securities by the end of the year, even after a much-weaker-than-expected payrolls report at the start of the month While elevated inflation has kept pressure on policymakers, data overnight showed the U.S. consumer price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, edged up just 0.1% last month The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its monetary policy meeting next week, with investors keen to find out whether a tapering announcement will be made. Tapering tends to benefit the dollar as it suggests the Fed is one step closer toward tighter monetary policy. It also means the central bank will be buying fewer debt assets, effectively reducing the number of dollars in circulation. One euro bought $1.1808 on Wednesday, mostly flat from the previous session. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks at the IMFS webinar later in the global day. Adding to the broader China worries in financial markets was a media report that embattled property developer China Evergrande Group won't be able to make interest payments on its debt next week.
  • Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, but remained above the $1,800-mark. Investors digested a weaker-than-expected rise in U.S. inflation that added to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s timeline to begin asset tapering. U.S. data released on Tuesday showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) grew 4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in August. The monthly increase was the smallest gain in six months, suggesting that inflation could have reached its peak. However, it could remain high for a while amid persistent supply constraints. The data also showed that the CPI grew 5.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month respectively. With the weaker-than-expected data casting doubt on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s timeline to begin asset tapering, investors now await the central bank’s policy decision, due to be handed down next week. In Asia Pacific, Chinese economic data released earlier in the day showed industrial production grew a lower-than-expected 5.3% year-on-year, while fixed-asset investment grew 8.9% year-on-year, in August. Retail sales grew 2.5% year on year.
  • Oil prices climbed on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, and on expectations that demand will recover as vaccine roll-outs widen. But a fall in China's crude oil throughput in August with daily refinery runs hitting the lowest since last May, and overall factory output faltering, capped oil price gains. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks all fell last week, according to two market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday, after Hurricane Ida shut numerous refineries and offshore drilling production. Crude stocks fell by 5.4 million barrels for the week ended on Sept. 10. Analysts on average had been expecting a drop of 3.5 million barrels. Tropical Storm Nicholas moved slowly through the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, leaving hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses without power, though Texas refineries continued to run normally. The damage from Nicholas comes just two weeks after Hurricane Ida knocked a significant amount of refining capacity offline in the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, after a three-month slide in global oil demand due to the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and renewed pandemic restrictions, vaccine roll-outs are set to power a rebound, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, also helping to lift prices. Details on China's plans to sell crude from strategic reserves pressured prices, however, with China's state reserves administration saying it would auction off 7.4 million barrels of crude on Sept. 24.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,805-1,810 1,819 1,830-1,839
Silver-XAG 23.75-24.05 24.20 24.45-24.75
Crude Oil 70.95 71.50 71.90-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1850-1.1910 1.1945 1.2010-1.2090
GBP/USD 1.3900 1.3950 1.3990-1.4025
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,784 1,767 1,760-1,751
Silver-XAG 23.50-22.90 22.50 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 70.10-69.55 69.10 68.30-67.15
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1750 1.1705 1.1640-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.3720 1.3720 1.3670-1.3610
USD/JPY 109.40-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (15th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1798.08/oz and low of US$1779.95/oz. Gold up 0.0607% at US$1792.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1790-1743 with risk below 1743, targeting 1805-1819-1830 and 1840-1850-1861. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 18, targeting 1784-1767 and 1760-1751.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,790-1,784
S2     1,767
S3     1,760-1,751
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,805-1,810
R2     1,819
R3     1,830-1,839

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.737

Buy
20-DMA   1797.79 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.36

Sell
100-DMA   1803.36 Sell
200-DMA   1803.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$23.94/oz and low of US$23.42/oz settled up by 0.463% at US$23.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.50, targeting 23.75-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.75-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.50-22.90
S2     22.50
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.75-24.05
R2     24.20
R3     24.45-24.75

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$70.96/bbl, intraday low of US$69.74/bbl and settled up by 1.436% to close at US$70.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 70.90-72.50 with stop loss at 72.50; targeting 70.10-69.55-69.10 and 68.3-67.90-67.25. Buy above 70.10-66.40 with risk daily closing below 66.40 and targeting 70.95-71.50n and 71.90-72.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.10-69.55
S2     69.10
S3     68.30-67.15

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     70.95
R2     71.50
R3     71.90-72.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.973 Sell
20-DMA   68.85 Buy
50-DMA   68.81 Buy
100-DMA   67.44 Buy
200-DMA   62.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.439 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1799/EUR, high of US$1.1845/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0668% to close at US$1.1802/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1850-1.2050 targeting 1.1750-1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1800-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1750
S2     1.1705
S3     1.1640-1.1600

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1850-1.1910
R2     1.1945
R3     1.2010-1.2090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.682 Buy
20-DMA   1.1809 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3802/GBP, high of US$1.3912/GBP and settled the day down by 0.231% to close at US$1.3805/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3900-1.4100 with targets at 1.3850-1.3720-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3850-1.3550 with targets 1.3890-1.3955-1.3990 and 1.4025-1.4100 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3720
S2     1.3720
S3     1.3670-1.3610

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3900
R2     1.3950
R3     1.3990-1.4025

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.943

Buy
20-DMA   1.3749 Buy
50-DMA   1.3806 Buy
100-DMA   1.3823 Buy
200-DMA   1.3725 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.146 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0010 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.52/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.15/USD and settled the day down 0.229% at JPY109.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.54-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.40-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.89 Sell
50-DMA   109.87 Sell
100-DMA   109.48 Sell
200-DMA   108.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING