AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar held near three-week highs on Friday after better-than-expected retail sales numbers in the United States boosted bets on the strength of the U.S. economy and earlier monetary policy tightening. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, rising 0.7% from the previous month despite expectations of a 0.8% fall, while a business sentiment survey by the Philadelphia Fed also showed a big improvement. The figures helped to curb cautious views on the U.S. economy after a tame consumer inflation reading and soft job growth data earlier this month, and revived expectations for an early tapering of its asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. The more bullish mood faces another test later on Friday with the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which surprised many investors last month by tumbling to a decade-low due to smaller income gains and higher inflation. Currency markets were generally quiet on Friday and traders were reluctant to put on new big positions ahead of a clutch of important central bank meetings next week including from the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. The yen has so far shown only a limited reaction to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership race, which will formally kick off on Friday ahead of a Sept. 29 vote. The LDP's parliamentary dominance means the party's new leader will become prime minister. Still, on a trade-weighted basis, the yuan stood near its highest level in five years, both in the onshore and offshore market.
  • The dollar edged lower in early European trade Friday, but remained near a three-week high after strong U.S. economic data shifted tapering expectations ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar received a boost on Thursday after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, rising 0.7% from the previous month despite expectations of a 0.8% fall. This came as a surprise as markets had expected the Covid-19 delta variant to have severely hit consumption. U.S. economic data Friday centers around the release of University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which surprised many investors last month by tumbling to a decade-low. Traders are now fully focussed on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting amid uncertainty over whether this data will be enough to prompt the central bank to announce a timeline for asset tapering after a tame consumer inflation reading and soft job growth data earlier this month. Elsewhere, GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3794 despite U.K. retail sales falling unexpectedly for a fourth month, dropping 0.9% on the month in August and suggesting that a resurgence of coronavirus cases is taking a toll on confidence. he dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia but remained near three-week highs. Strong economic data from the U.S. rekindled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin asset tapering earlier than expected and helped capped the U.S. currency’s losses. The U.S. data, released on Thursday, showed that core retail sales grew 1.8% month-on-month and retail sales grew 0.7% month-on-month in August. September's Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index was 30.7, while the Philly Fed Employment was at 26.3. Investors will now wait and see whether the data will impact the Fed’s timeline for asset tapering when the central bank hands down its policy decision next week. They also await the Michigan Consumer Expectations and Michigan Consumer Sentiment indexes for September, due later in the day In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership race that determines who becomes the country’s next prime minister, had a limited impact on the yen so far. The race formally kicks off on Friday ahead of a Sep. 29 vote. COVID-19 vaccine minister Taro Kono is the forerunner in the race, followed by former foreign minister Fumio Kishida and former internal affairs minister Sanae Takaichi. However, uncertainty about the result increased after former internal affairs minister Seiko Noda threw his hat into the ring on Thursday.
  • Oil was down Friday morning in Asia. Moves were small, however, even as more U.S. Gulf of Mexico supply returned online after two hurricanes. The black liquid was on track to post weekly gains of around 4%, with the output recovery viewed to be lagging behind demand. Both Brent and WTI futures are to climb about 4% for the week, with Brent near a seven-week high and WTI near a six-week high. Output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico has recovery much slower than expected after Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas hit in late August and during the past week respectively Around 28% of the region’s crude production remained offline as of Thursday, more than two weeks after Ida made landfall. U.S. crude exports in September slipped to between 2.34 million barrels per day (bpd) and 2.62 million bpd from 3 million bpd in late August, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Data from the International Energy Agency this week showed OECD oil inventories falling to a low in November, with the recovery in fuel demand expected to outpace supply, according to Dhar. The risk of weaker demand in Southeast Asia has abated as COVID-19 cases appear to have peaked in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, he added.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,767-1,774 1,784 1,790-1,805
Silver-XAG 23.50-23.75 24.05 24.45-24.90
Crude Oil 71.50-71.90 72.50 73.50-74.90
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1850 1.1910 1.1945-1.2010
GBP/USD 1.3810-1.3850 1.3900 1.3950-1.3990
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,751 1,745 1,734-1,727
Silver-XAG 22.90-22.50 22.00 21.50-21.00
Crude Oil 70.95-70.10 69.55 69.10-68.30
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1705 1.1640 1.1600-1.1560
GBP/USD 1.3720-1.3670 1.3610 1.3560-1.3500
USD/JPY 109.50-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (17th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1796.10/oz and low of US$1745.22/oz. Gold up 2.247% at US$1753.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1760-1727 with risk below 1727, targeting 1805-1819-1830 and 1840-1850-1861. Sell in between 1790-1830 keeping stop loss closing above 18, targeting 1784-1767 and 1760-1751.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,760-1,751
S2     1,745
S3     1,734-1,727
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,767-1,774
R2     1,784
R3     1,790-1,805

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.737

Buy
20-DMA   1797.79 Sell
50-DMA  

1799.36

Sell
100-DMA   1803.36 Sell
200-DMA   1803.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$23.95/oz and low of US$22.59/oz settled up by 3.965% at US$22.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-21.00, targeting 23.50-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.75-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.90-22.50
S2     22.00
S3     21.50-21.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.50-23.75
R2     24.05
R3     24.45-24.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$72.69/bbl, intraday low of US$71.28/bbl and settled down by 0.110% to close at US$72.29/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 71.50-74.90 with stop loss at 74.90; targeting 70.95-70.10-69.55-69.10 and 68.3-67.90-67.25. Buy above 70.10-66.40 with risk daily closing below 66.40 and targeting 70.95-71.50n and 71.90-72.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.95-70.10
S2     69.55
S3     69.10-68.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.50-71.90
R2     72.50
R3     73.50-74.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.973 Sell
20-DMA   68.85 Buy
50-DMA   68.81 Buy
100-DMA   67.44 Buy
200-DMA   62.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.439 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1749/EUR, high of US$1.1819/EUR and settled the day down by 0.447% to close at US$1.1763/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1800-1.2050 targeting 1.1750-1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1750-1.1640 with risk below 1.1640, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1750-1.1705
S2     1.1640
S3     1.1600-1.1560

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1800-1.1850
R2     1.1910
R3     1.1945-1.2010

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.530 Buy
20-DMA   1.1801 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thurday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3763/GBP, high of US$1.3852/GBP and settled the day down by 0.367% to close at US$1.3789/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3900-1.4100 with targets at 1.3850-1.3720-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3850-1.3550 with targets 1.3890-1.3955-1.3990 and 1.4025-1.4100 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3720-1.3670
S2     1.3610
S3     1.3560-1.3500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3810-1.3850
R2     1.3900
R3     1.3950-1.3990

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.977

Buy
20-DMA   1.3801 Buy
50-DMA   1.3819 Buy
100-DMA   1.3833 Buy
200-DMA   1.3726 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.20/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.82/USD and settled the day down 0.301% at JPY109.69/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.50-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.89 Sell
50-DMA   109.87 Sell
100-DMA   109.48 Sell
200-DMA   108.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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