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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday, but moves have been capped ahead of the conclusion of the crucial Federal Reserve meeting later in the session. The highlight Wednesday is the conclusion of the latest Fed meeting, with traders looking to see if the central bank signals the scaling back of asset purchases later this year. The central bank will release a statement at 2 PM ET (1800 GMT), plus updated quarterly estimates, including its dot plot of rate projections, to be followed 30 minutes later by a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell. The central bank is trying to balance surging inflation with the fallout from the latest wave of the global pandemic. USD/CNY traded 0.1% higher at 6.4686, with the yuan weakening after the northeastern city of Harbin went into semi-shutdown after reporting new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases for the first time since early February. That outweighed any short-term relief at the news from Evergrande. The dollar was flat Tuesday, and experts suggest that the greenback could struggle to advance as the improved pandemic backdrop may sour investor appetite for the safe-heavens including the greenback. The U.S. dollar has been riding a wave of safe-heaven demand as investors contend with economic headwinds including the difficulties in China. But in the near term, “the U.S. dollar is expected to slip slightly lower as pandemic uncertainties gradually recede,” Desjardins said. While the Federal Reserve’s plan to tighten its monetary policy measures could help offset less favorable factors for the greenback, such as a wide trade deficit and a higher inflation, the boost to the dollar from Fed tightening isn’t expected to be as meaningful as many expect. The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged when its delivers its monetary policy statement on Wednesday. But with the Fed’s plan to taper largely priced in, a raft of updates to the central bank’s economic and interest rate projections are likely to be closely watched.
  • The dollar was flat Tuesday, and experts suggest that the greenback could struggle to advance as the improved pandemic backdrop may sour investor appetite for the safe-heavens including the greenback. The U.S. dollar has been riding a wave of safe-heaven demand as investors contend with economic headwinds including the difficulties in China. But in the near term, “the U.S. dollar is expected to slip slightly lower as pandemic uncertainties gradually recede,” Desjardins said. While the Federal Reserve’s plan to tighten its monetary policy measures could help offset less favorable factors for the greenback, such as a wide trade deficit and a higher inflation, the boost to the dollar from Fed tightening isn’t expected to be as meaningful as many expect. The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged when its delivers its monetary policy statement on Wednesday. But with the Fed’s plan to taper largely priced in, a raft of updates to the central bank’s economic and interest rate projections are likely to be closely watched.
  • Oil prices climbed more than $1 on Wednesday, extending overnight gains after industry data showed U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected last week in the wake of two hurricanes, highlighting tight supply as demand improves. The oil market's focus turned to concerns of tight supply, after Monday's pressure from broad market jitters over the possible default of Chinese property developer China Evergrande Group U.S. crude stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 17, market sources said, citing Tuesday's figures from the American Petroleum Institute. That was a much bigger decline than the drop of 2.4 million barrels in crude inventories that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected on average. The market will be watching for data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday to confirm the big drops in crude and fuel stocks. Global gas prices are expected to break records this winter as a hot northern hemisphere summer leaves inventories low in key markets. Supply is expected to stay tight after Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSa), the largest U.S. Gulf of Mexico producer, said damage to its offshore transfer facilities would cut production into early next year. Further supporting the market, some producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together called OPEC+, are struggling to increase output up to targeted levels, sources told Reuters. Most of the shortfall is from Nigeria, Angola and Kazakhstan.
  • Gold rallied for a second day in a row as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields tried to find their way amid continued pressure on risk markets from the debt crisis at China’s biggest property developer, Evergrande. Uncertainty over the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy meeting that ends with Wednesday’s news conference by Fed Chairman Jay Powell also kept risk in check. Stocks rebounded strongly in early trade before turning volatile on speculation whether Evergrande will be able to pay $83 million in interest due on its bond borrowings on Friday. Halley noted that despite the two-day rebound, gold continued to have resistance at above $1770. The Fed’s FOMC meeting could revisit the subject of tapering for the central bank’s stimulus program that has juiced stock prices over the past 18 months. The central bank has been buying $120 billion in bonds and other assets since the COVID-19 outbreak of March 2020 to support the economy. It has also been keeping interest rates at virtually zero. Chairman Powell and his senior most colleagues at the central bank have so far issued mixed messages on a stimulus taper, with the broad market consensus being that any pullback will not occur until November. An absence of any immediate announcement on the taper could weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields and extend gold’s lifeline. Even so, gold needs to recapture the $1,800 level to sustain its uptrend, said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SK Charting in Kolkata, India.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,784-1,790 1,804 1,810-1,819
Silver-XAG 22.90-23.50 23.75 24.05-24.45
Crude Oil 71.50-71.90 72.50 73.50-74.90
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1945
GBP/USD 1.3670-1.3720 1.3810 1.3850-1.3900
USD/JPY 110.50-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,774-1,767 1,760 1,751-1,745
Silver-XAG 22.30-22.00 21.50 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 70.70-70.10 69.55 69.10-68.30
EURO/USD 1.1705-1.1640 1.1600 1.1560-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3610-1.3560 1.3500 1.3450-1.3400
USD/JPY 109.50-109.10 108.40 107.45-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1781.73/oz and low of US$1757.87/oz. Gold up 0.570 at US$1774.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1751-1717 with risk below 1717, targeting 1767-1774 and 1784-1790-1805. Sell in between 1760-1805 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1751-1745-1734 and 1728-1718.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,774-1,767
S2     1,760
S3     1,751-1,745
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,784-1,790
R2     1,804
R3     1,810-1,819

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$22.71/oz and low of US$22.22/oz settled down by 0.942% at US$22.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.40-21.00, targeting 23.50-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.90-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.30-22.00
S2     21.50
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.90-23.50
R2     23.75
R3     24.05-24.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$71.39/bbl, intraday low of US$69.32/bbl and settled up by 0.510% to close at US$70.72/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 71.50-74.90 with stop loss at 74.90; targeting 70.95-70.10-69.55-69.10 and 68.3-67.90-67.25. Buy above 70.10-66.40 with risk daily closing below 66.40 and targeting 70.95-71.50n and 71.90-72.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.70-70.10
S2     69.55
S3     69.10-68.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.50-71.90
R2     72.50
R3     73.50-74.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.973 Sell
20-DMA   68.85 Buy
50-DMA   68.81 Buy
100-DMA   67.44 Buy
200-DMA   62.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.439 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1714/EUR, high of US$1.1747/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0025% to close at US$1.1723/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.2050 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1700-1.1510 with risk below 1.1510, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1705-1.1640
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1560-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1945

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.530 Buy
20-DMA   1.1801 Sell
50-DMA   1.1979 Sell
100-DMA   1.1932 Sell
200-DMA   1.1904 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3640/GBP, high of US$1.3692/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0754% to close at US$1.3657/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3720-1.4100 with targets at 1.3670-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3670-1.3450 with targets 1.3720-1.3810-1.3890 and 1.3955 and 1.3990-1.4025-1.4100 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3610-1.3560
S2     1.3500
S3     1.3450-1.3400

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3670-1.3720
R2     1.3810
R3     1.3850-1.3900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.977

Buy
20-DMA   1.3801 Buy
50-DMA   1.3819 Buy
100-DMA   1.3833 Buy
200-DMA   1.3726 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.19/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.55/USD and settled the day down 0.301% at JPY109.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 109.60-106.50 with targets of 110.50-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 110.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 109.60-109.00-108.50 and 108.00-107.50-106.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-109.10
S2     108.40
S3     107.45-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.50-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.047 Buy
20-DMA   109.89 Sell
50-DMA   109.87 Sell
100-DMA   109.48 Sell
200-DMA   108.60 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   41.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0131 Sell

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