AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, while the yen, a fellow safe-haven asset, sank to its lowest level in nearly three months. Riskier assets, such as the Australian dollar, continued to recover from an almost one-month low as fears of the economic contagion from China Evergrande Group's debt situation receded slightly. Concerns that China Evergrande could default on its $305 billion of debt have cast a shadow over markets recently, although some of those fears seem to be receding. The People's Bank of China injected a net CNY100 billion ($15.46 billion) into the financial system on Monday, on top of the net CNY320 billion added last week. However, investors continue to keep a wary eye on the situation. In Europe, the euro was little changed at $1.1724 even as Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly won over incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union of Germany party in Sunday’s election.
  • The dollar rose on Friday and was poised for its third straight week of gains against a basket of major currencies, as uncertainty over beleaguered Chinese property developer Evergrande helped the greenback bounce back from a sharp decline in the prior session. The safe-haven dollar had its biggest one-day percentage drop in about a month on Thursday after Beijing injected new cash into the financial system and Evergrande announced it would make interest payments on an onshore bond, boosting risk sentiment. The offshore Chinese yuan weakened versus the greenback at 6.4641 per dollar. The decline came a day after the greenback was lifted by Wednesday's announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it will likely begin to trim its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and flagged interest rate increases may follow suit sooner than expected as the central bank moves away from its pandemic crisis policies. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said the U.S. labor market has already met the central bank's test to pare its monthly bond purchases, and the discussion should now turn to how its massive bondholding could complicate the decision on when to hike rates. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed the sentiment for a tapering this year, and said the central bank could start raising rates by the end of next year should the job market continue to improve as expected. In prepared remarks in a listening session with a wide swath of economic players, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not elaborate on his own economic or monetary policy outlook, which he had outlined at the close of the two-day Fed meeting on Wednesday. Sterling weakened a day after hawkish comments from the Bank of England on Thursday pushed the pound to its biggest one-day percentage gain since Aug. 23. Cryptocurrencies slumped after China's most powerful regulators increased the country's crackdown on the digital assets, with a blanket ban on all crypto transactions and crypto mining.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, with risk appetite decreasing as concerns over China Evergrande Group's (HK:3333) debt situation, and its potential economic impact, continue. China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development tightened scrutiny of China Evergrande’s bank accounts to ensure funds are used to complete housing projects and not diverted to pay creditors. The developer missed a payment on offshore bonds during the previous week, with a second payment due later in the week. Its electric-car unit, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group, will also not proceed with a proposed issue of CNY-denominated shares. Demand for physical gold in China, a top consumer, rose during the previous week as investors sought safety in the safe-haven yellow metal as they monitor the ongoing situation at China Evergrande. On the central bank front, European Central Bank (EBC) President Christine Lagarde will speak on Tuesday. Lagarde will be joined by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at an ECB forum panel a day later. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will join Powell to testify at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday. The House Financial Services Committee hearing will follow on Thursday.
  • Oil prices rose for a fifth straight day on Monday with Brent heading for $80 amid supply concerns as parts of the world sees demand pick up with the easing of pandemic conditions. Rising gas prices as also helping drive oil higher as the liquid becomes relatively cheaper for power generation, ANZ analysts said in the note. Caught short by the demand rebound, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, have had difficulty raising output as under-investment or maintenance delays persist from the pandemic. China's first public sale of state oil reserves has barely acted to cap gains as PetroChina and Hengli Petrochemical bought four cargoes totalling about 4.43 million barrels. India's oil imports hit a three-month peak in August, rebounding from nearly one-year lows reached in July, as refiners in the second-biggest importer of crude stocked up in anticipation of higher demand.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,767 1,774 1,784-1,790
Silver-XAG 22.90-23.50 23.75 24.05-24.45
Crude Oil 74.90-75.50 76.30 77.00-77.50
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1945
GBP/USD 1.3730-1.3810 1.3850 1.3910-1.3960
USD/JPY 111.10-111.70 112.50 113.00-113.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,751-1,745 1,736 1,730-1,721
Silver-XAG 22.30-22.00 21.50 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 73.50-72.50 71.90 71.50-70.70
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1640 1.1600 1.1560-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3670-1.3610 1.3560 1.3500-1.3450
USD/JPY 110.50-109.50 109.10 108.40-107.45

Intra-Day Strategy (27th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1757.55/oz and low of US$1740.39/oz. Gold down 0.418% at US$1750.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1751-1717 with risk below 1717, targeting 1767-1774 and 1784-1790-1805. Sell in between 1760-1805 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1751-1745-1734 and 1728-1718.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,751-1,745
S2     1,736
S3     1,730-1,721
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,760-1,767
R2     1,774
R3     1,784-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$22.78/oz and low of US$22.09/oz settled down by 0.430% at US$22.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.40-21.00, targeting 23.50-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.90-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.30-22.00
S2     21.50
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.90-23.50
R2     23.75
R3     24.05-24.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$74.12/bbl, intraday low of US$72.68/bbl and settled up by 0.935% to close at US$73.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 74.90-77.50 with stop loss at 77.50; targeting 73.50-72.50-71.90 and 70.95-70.10-69.55. Buy above 73.50-70.10 with risk daily closing below 70.10 and targeting 74.90-75.50-76.30 and 77.00-77.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     73.50-72.50
S2     71.90
S3     71.50-70.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     74.90-75.50
R2     76.30
R3     77.00-77.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.748 Sell
20-DMA   70.95 Buy
50-DMA   69.84 Buy
100-DMA   68.19 Buy
200-DMA   63.52 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.309 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1699/EUR, high of US$1.1746/EUR and settled the day down by 0.155% to close at US$1.1719/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1700-1.2050 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1690-1.1510 with risk below 1.1510, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1690-1.1640
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1560-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1945

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3657/GBP, high of US$1.3735/GBP and settled the day down by 0.236% to close at US$1.3686/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3730-1.4100 with targets at 1.3670-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3670-1.3450 with targets 1.3720-1.3810-1.3890 and 1.3955 and 1.3990-1.4025-1.4100 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3670-1.3610
S2     1.3560
S3     1.3500-1.3450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3730-1.3810
R2     1.3850
R3     1.3910-1.3960

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.305

Buy
20-DMA   1.3748 Buy
50-DMA   1.3791 Buy
100-DMA   1.3816 Buy
200-DMA   1.3723 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.21/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.78/USD and settled the day up 0.335% at JPY110.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 110.60-107.50 with targets of 111.10-111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 111.50-113.50 with risk above 113.50 targeting 110.50-109.60-109.00 and 108.50-108.00-107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.50-109.50
S2     109.10
S3     108.40-107.45

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.10-111.70
R2     112.50
R3     113.00-113.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.610 Buy
20-DMA   109.97 Sell
50-DMA   109.90 Sell
100-DMA   109.59 Sell
200-DMA   108.77 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   96.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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