AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, with the yen trading near an almost three-month low to the dollar, with rising U.S. bond yields attracting Japanese investors. This attracted investors from Japan, with 10-year Japanese government bond yields remaining near zero due to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy. The climb in U.S. yield was attributable to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance in its latest monetary policy handed down during the previous week. The central bank could begin asset tapering as soon as November 2021 and hike interest rates sooner than expected. Some investors predicted an upward trend for the dollar could continue over time. The dollar edged higher in early European trade Tuesday, boosted by rising U.S. Treasury yields as traders position for the Federal Reserve tapering its bond-buying program this year after last week’s policy-setting meeting. Data released earlier in the day showed that Australian retail sales contracted 1.7% month-on-month in August, hit by Covid-19 restrictions, but better than the 2.5% fall expected. EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1686, with traders having to balance the uncertainty surrounding Germany’s political climate following Sunday’s general election and an unexpected rise in German consumer confidence. The GfK consumer sentiment index rose to 0.3 points in October, its highest level in a year and a half, a survey showed on Tuesday, from a revised -1.1 points a month earlier. However, the major driving force behind the recent moves in the foreign exchange markets has been the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, where the benchmark 10-year briefly topped 1.5% on Monday, a level not seen since June 2021, and the two-year yield rose to its highest since March 2020. This follows the Federal Reserve indicating at its policy-setting meeting last week that it could begin asset tapering as soon as November, concluding around mid-2022, opening the way for interest rate hikes after that. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify later Tuesday in front of the Senate Banking Committee, and is expected to highlight "upside risks" to inflation as bottlenecks, hiring difficulties, and other drivers of price pressures continue, but will continue to suggest these pressures will prove transitory, according to prepared remarks. Powell's appearance comes a day after two regional Fed presidents resigned, less than a week after revelations that they had actively traded stocks and other financial instruments while sitting on the Fed's policy-making committee.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia. However, a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields capped the yellow metal’s gains, and investors await further clues from U.S. Federal Reserve officials on when it will begin asset tapering and hike interest rates. The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield briefly topped 1.5%, a level not seen since June 2021, during the previous session. The two-year yield also rose to its highest since March 2020. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be joined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to testify at a Senate Banking Committee hearing later in the day, with the House Financial Services Committee hearing following two days later. The Fed would move against unchecked inflation if needed, Powell said in prepared remarks. He will also be joined by the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, the Bank of Japan’s Haruhiko Kuroda, and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Christine Lagarde at an ECB Forum on Central Banking panel on Wednesday. Lagarde will speak at the forum later in the day. In Asia Pacific, the People’s Bank of China on Monday vowed to protect consumers exposed to the housing market and injected more cash into the banking system. The Shenzhen government also began investigating China Evergrande Group’s wealth management unit as the developer’s debt woes continue. Meanwhile, Narodowy Bank Polski (National Bank of Poland) has more than 230 tons of gold and plans to expand its reserves, its president Adam Glapiński said on Monday.
  • Oil markets climbed for a sixth day on Tuesday, reversing earlier losses, on fears over tight supply while surging prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal also lent support. Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas, which swept through the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in August and September, damaged platforms, pipelines and processing hubs, shutting most offshore production for weeks. Also weighing on supply, top African oil exporters Nigeria and Angola will struggle to boost output to their quotas set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) until at least next year as underinvestment and nagging maintenance problems continue to hobble output, sources at their respective oil firms warn. Their battle mirrors that of several other members of the OPEC+ group who curbed production in the past year to support prices when COVID-19 hit demand, but are now failing to ramp up output to meet soaring global fuel needs as economies recover. The supply issues are occurring as countries ease their COVID-19 movement restrictions, potentially boosting demand. Japan, the world's fifth-biggest oil user, plans to lift a coronavirus state of emergency in all regions on Thursday as the number of new cases falls and the strain on the medical system eases, Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said. Analysts also say rising prices of spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal may support higher oil prices. He added that energy prices could rally from here if the Northern Hemisphere winter proved colder than expected. China is in the grip of a power crunch as a shortage of coal supplies, tougher emissions standards and strong demand from manufacturers and industry have pushed coal prices to record highs and triggered widespread curbs on usage.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th September 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,745-1,751 1,760 1,767-1,774
Silver-XAG 22.90-23.50 23.75 24.05-24.45
Crude Oil 76.30-77.00 77.50 78.00-78.50
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1910-1.1945
GBP/USD 1.3730-1.3810 1.3850 1.3910-1.3960
USD/JPY 111.70-112.50 113.00 113.50-114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th September 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,736-1,730 1,721 1,715-1,710
Silver-XAG 22.30-22.00 21.50 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 75.50¬-74.90 73.50 72.50-71.90
EURO/USD 1.1670-1.1640 1.1600 1.1560-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3670-1.3610 1.3560 1.3500-1.3450
USD/JPY 111.10-110.50 109.50 109.10-108.40

Intra-Day Strategy (28th September 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1760.76/oz and low of US$1744.79/oz. Gold down 0.0131% at US$1749.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1736-1717 with risk below 1717, targeting 1745-1751-1767 and 1774-1784. Sell in between 1745-1790 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1737-1728 and 1718-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,736-1,730
S2     1,721
S3     1,715-1,710
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,745-1,751
R2     1,760
R3     1,767-1,774

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$22.83/oz and low of US$22.83/oz settled down by 0.964% at US$22.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.40-21.00, targeting 23.50-24.45-25.05 and 25.50-26.00-26.65 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.90-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 23.25-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.30-22.00
S2     21.50
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.90-23.50
R2     23.75
R3     24.05-24.45

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.223 Buy
20-DMA   24.03 Sell
50-DMA   24.56 Sell
100-DMA   25.14 Sell
200-DMA   25.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   8.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.108 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$74.02/bbl, intraday low of US$74.02/bbl and settled up by 1.503% to close at US$75.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 74.90-77.50 with stop loss at 77.50; targeting 73.50-72.50-71.90 and 70.95-70.10-69.55. Buy above 75.50-71.10 with risk daily closing below 71.10 and targeting 76.30-77.00-77.50 and 78.00-78.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     75.50¬-74.90
S2     73.50
S3     72.50-71.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     76.30-77.00
R2     77.50
R3     78.00-78.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.340 Sell
20-DMA   71.01 Buy
50-DMA   69.86 Buy
100-DMA   68.21 Buy
200-DMA   63.53 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   91.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.309 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1684/EUR, high of US$1.1725/EUR and settled the day down by 0.247% to close at US$1.1695/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1700-1.2050 targeting 1.1640-1.1601 and 1.1550-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1690-1.1510 with risk below 1.1510, targeting 1.1910-1.1950-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1670-1.1640
S2     1.1600
S3     1.1560-1.1510

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1910-1.1945

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3657/GBP, high of US$1.3728/GBP and settled the day up by 0.215% to close at US$1.3695/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3730-1.4100 with targets at 1.3670-1.3615 and 1.3571-1.3550-1.3510 stop-loss should be 1.3890. Buy above 1.3670-1.3450 with targets 1.3720-1.3810-1.3890 and 1.3955 and 1.3990-1.4025-1.4100 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3670-1.3610
S2     1.3560
S3     1.3500-1.3450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3730-1.3810
R2     1.3850
R3     1.3910-1.3960

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.305

Buy
20-DMA   1.3748 Buy
50-DMA   1.3791 Buy
100-DMA   1.3816 Buy
200-DMA   1.3723 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.53/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.06/USD and settled the day up 0.851% at JPY110.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 111.10-108.50 with targets of 111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 111.70-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.10-110.50-109.60 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.10-110.50
S2     109.50
S3     109.10-108.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.70-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.50-114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.610 Buy
20-DMA   109.97 Sell
50-DMA   109.90 Sell
100-DMA   109.59 Sell
200-DMA   108.77 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   96.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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