AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged back toward a one-year high versus major peers on Tuesday ahead of a key payrolls report at the end of the week that could boost the case for the Federal Reserve to start tapering stimulus as soon as next month. The safe-haven greenback was also supported by an equity sell-off that spread from Wall Street to Asia. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was among the biggest decliners, with the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterating it doesn't expect to raise interest rates until 2024 after keeping policy steady, as expected. The dollar has also benefited from haven demand amid worries spanning the risk of global stagflation to the U.S. debt ceiling standoff. Friday's non-farm payrolls data is expected to show continued improvement in the labour market, with a forecast for 488,000 jobs to have been added in September, according to a Reuters poll. While the consensus view is for further gains for the greenback - with speculators pushing net long bets to the highest since March 2020 - TD Securities warns that headroom may be limited.
  • The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Tuesday, helped by rising U.S. Treasury yields, but traded below last week’s peak with investors waiting for Friday’s key U.S. employment release for clues on the Federal Reserve’s thinking over bond-buying tapering. The dollar has benefited from climbing bond yields as investors fretted about the lack of agreement in U.S. Congress over the country’s debt ceiling with American politics seemingly as partisan as ever. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note now yields close to 1.50% after President Joe Biden said late Monday that he cannot guarantee the government will not breach its $28.4 trillion debt limit, as the United States faces the risk of a historic default in just two weeks. Also helping the dollar has been a spate of recent data which have painted a picture of a fading pandemic and a recovering economy, fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve could start tightening its monetary policy sooner than expected. With this in mind, the focus for most of this week will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release, with the Fed undoubtedly looking for a stronger recovery in the labor market following August’s disappointing release. This labor release is expected to show continued improvement in the job market, with a forecast for 488,000 jobs to have been added in September, up from 235,000 jobs added the previous month.
  • Gold was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, even as continuing inflation concerns saw the yellow metal trade close to a more than one-week peak hit during the previous session. U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai on Monday excluded some Chinese imports from tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. She also called for “frank” talks with China over its failure to keep promises made in the Trump-era trade deal and its industrial policies. Separately, current U.S. President Joe Biden warned that the government could breach its $28.4 trillion debt limit to enter a historic default unless Republicans add their vote to raise it within the two next weeks. Meanwhile, data released on Monday in the U.S. showed that factory orders rose a better-than-expected 1.2% month-on-month in August. In Asia Pacific, Indian gold imports soared 658% in September from 2020’s lower base, with a correction in local prices encouraging jewelers to increase purchases ahead of the upcoming festive season, a government source told Reuters. The Reserve Bank of Australia also handed down its policy decision earlier in the day, keeping its interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hand down its decision on Wednesday, with the Reserve Bank of India following two days later.
  • Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, hitting their highest levels in at least three years, extending gains triggered during the previous session after the world's major oil producers announced they had decided to keep a cap on crude supplies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, said on Monday it would maintain an agreement to increase oil production only gradually, ignoring calls from the United States and India to boost output as the world economy recovers, if patchily, from the coronavirus pandemic. Oil prices have already surged more than 50% this year, a rise that has added to inflationary pressures that crude-consuming nations are concerned will derail recovery from the pandemic. Despite the pressure to ramp up output, OPEC+ was concerned that a fourth global wave of COVID-19 infections could hit the demand recovery, a source told Reuters a little before the vote. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said after the talks he believed the market is now balanced Meanwhile U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories are likely to have fallen last week, according to a preliminary Reuters poll. Five analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories declined by about 300,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 1.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th October 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,770 1,779 1,790-1,804
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.90 23.50 23.75-24.05
Crude Oil 78.00-78.90 80.50 80.90-81.50
EURO/USD 1.1640-1.1750 1.1800 1.1850-1.1910
GBP/USD 1.3610-1.3670 1.3710 1.3750-1.3790
USD/JPY 111.70-112.50 113.00 113.50-114.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th October 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,745-1,736 1,724 1,717-1,710
Silver-XAG 22.20-21.50 21.00 20.50-19.90
Crude Oil 77.50-76.30 75.70 74.90-74.20
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1560 1.1510 1.1460-1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3560-1.3510 1.3450 1.3400-1.3340
USD/JPY 111.10-110.50 109.50 109.10-108.40

Intra-Day Strategy (5th October 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1770.49/oz and low of US$1747.64/oz. Gold down 0.431% at US$1769.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1745-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1760-1767 and 1774-1784-1790. Sell in between 1760-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1745-1737-1728 and 1718-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,745-1,736
S2     1,724
S3     1,717-1,710
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,760-1,770
R2     1,779
R3     1,790-1,804

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$22.76/oz and low of US$22.27/oz settled up by 0.434% at US$22.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.20-19.55, targeting 22.60-22.90-23.50 and 24.45-25.05-25.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.60-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 21.50-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.55.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.20-21.50
S2     21.00
S3     20.50-19.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.60-22.90
R2     23.50
R3     23.75-24.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.481 Buy
20-DMA   22.82 Sell
50-DMA   23.72 Sell
100-DMA   24.54 Sell
200-DMA   24.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$78.18/bbl, intraday low of US$75.13/bbl and settled up by 2.148% to close at US$77.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.00-81.50 with stop loss at 81.50; targeting 77.50-76.30-75.70 and 74.90-74.20-73.50. Buy above 77.50-74.90 with risk daily closing below 74.90 and targeting 77.50-78.00-78.90 and 80.50-80.90-81.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     77.50-76.30
S2     75.70
S3     74.90-74.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     78.00-78.90
R2     80.50
R3     80.90-81.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.554 Sell
20-DMA   71.91 Buy
50-DMA   70.38 Buy
100-DMA   68.57 Buy
200-DMA   63.85 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   58.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.560 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1585/EUR, high of US$1.1639/EUR and settled the day up by 0.205% to close at US$1.1619/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3610-1.3790 with targets at 1.3560-1.3510-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3340-1.3290 with stop loss should be 1.3790. Buy above 1.3560-1.3340 with targets 1.3610-1.3670-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1590-1.1560
S2     1.1510
S3     1.1460-1.1420

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1640-1.1750
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850-1.1910

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3639/GBP, high of US$1.3639/GBP and settled the day up by 0.566% to close at US$1.3604/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3610-1.3790 with targets at 1.3560-1.3510-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3340-1.3290 with stop loss should be 1.3790. Buy above 1.3560-1.3340 with targets 1.3610-1.3670-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3560-1.3510
S2     1.3450
S3     1.3400-1.3340

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3610-1.3670
R2     1.3710
R3     1.3750-1.3790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.305

Buy
20-DMA   1.3748 Buy
50-DMA   1.3791 Buy
100-DMA   1.3816 Buy
200-DMA   1.3723 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.91/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.29/USD and settled the day up 0.619% at JPY110.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 111.60-108.50 with targets of 111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 112.0-114.00 with risk above 114.00 targeting 111.10-110.50-109.60 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.10-110.50
S2     109.50
S3     109.10-108.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.70-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.50-114.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.610 Buy
20-DMA   109.97 Sell
50-DMA   109.90 Sell
100-DMA   109.59 Sell
200-DMA   108.77 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   96.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING