AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The safe-haven dollar hovered below a one-year high to major peers on Friday amid improved risk sentiment, while traders awaited clues on the pace of Federal Reserve policy normalization from a closely watched monthly payrolls reports. Global equities rallied and bond yields climbed after U.S. Senate leaders moved to avert a U.S. debt default, while a global easing in energy prices tempered simmering stagflation fears. The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, was little changed at 94.202 after trading in a tight range on Thursday, staying within sight of last week's high of 94.504, a level not seen since late September 2020. The Federal Reserve has said it is likely to begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and follow up with interest rate increases potentially next year, as the U.S. central bank's turn from pandemic crisis policies gains momentum. Friday's non-farm payrolls data is expected to show continued improvement in the labour market, with a forecast for 500,000 jobs added in September, a Reuters poll showed. Comments from new Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill that inflation pressures were proving stickier than initially thought reinforced expectations for a rate hike by February, and perhaps even this year.
  • The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies on Thursday, the day before U.S. labor market data that could provide clues to timing of the Federal Reserve's next move. Most major currency pairs clung to familiar ranges, with traders disinclined to place large wagers before the data's release. The Federal Reserve has said it is likely to begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and then follow up with interest rate increases, as the U.S. central bank's turn from pandemic crisis policies gains momentum. Friday's non-farm payrolls data is expected to show continued improvement in the labor market, with a forecast for 455,000 jobs added in September, a Reuters poll showed. In the week following the data the dollar tends to reverse most of the gain or loss that has occurred from the day of the NFP release, FX strategists said in a BofA Global Research report on Thursday. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, but layoffs increased from a 24-year low in September in part as hospitals fired unvaccinated staff and lack of workers forced closures of facilities. In the digital currency space, bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency by market value, eased from the almost five-month high of $55,800 touched on Wednesday, last trading at around $54,040.48.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, but held steady as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the latest U.S. jobs report. The U.S. jobs report, which includes non-farm payrolls, is due later in the day and could impact the U.S. Federal Reserve’s timetable to begin asset tapering. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in September that there was broad agreement among policymakers to begin asset tapering as soon as November 2021, as long as the jobs report for September was “decent.” The number of initial jobless claims filed during the past week also dropped to 326,000, the most in three months, and indicated further recovery in the country’s job market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate on Thursday approved legislation to temporarily raise the federal government’s $28.4 trillion debt limit and avoid the risk of default within the month. It will put off a longer-term solution until early December 2021. China’s Caixin services purchasing managers index for September released earlier in the day, was a better-than-expected 53.4. The country also held 62.64 million fine troy ounces of gold at the end of September 2021, unchanged from August, according to official data released on Thursday.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday, tracking towards a 4.5% gain for the week on signs some industries have begun switching fuel from high-priced gas to oil and on doubts the U.S. government would release oil from its strategic reserves for now. Expectations are high "that nothing in the immediate future will change the significant supply/demand deficit that is in place", said Moya. However, a U.S. Department of Energy source told Reuters that a social media post by a Bloomberg reporter that said the department was not considering tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) "at this time" was not accurate, while adding that all "tools are always on the table" to tackle tight energy supply. Overall, the week's run-up has been spurred by soaring gas prices encouraging a switch to oil for power generation and by some industries, along with a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together called OPEC+, to stick to plans to add only 400,000 barrels per day of supply in November. Analysts said the surge in gas prices and the extent of fuel switching from gas to oil would be the key factor to watch now. JP Morgan analysts noted that they have yet to hear of significant gas-to-oil switching in the European power sector.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th October 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,770 1,779 1,790-1,804
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.90 23.50 23.75-24.05
Crude Oil 79.50-80.50 81.00 81.50-81.90
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1640 1.1750 1.1800-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3610-1.3670 1.3710 1.3750-1.3790
USD/JPY 112.50-113.00 113.50 114.00-114.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th October 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,745-1,736 1,724 1,717-1,710
Silver-XAG 22.20-21.50 21.00 20.50-19.90
Crude Oil 78.90-78.00 77.50 76.30-75.70
EURO/USD 1.1560-1.1510 1.1460 1.1420-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.3560-1.3510 1.3450 1.3400-1.3340
USD/JPY 111.70-110.50 109.50 109.10-108.40

Intra-Day Strategy (8th October 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1766.87/oz and low of US$1751.87/oz. Gold up 0.407% at US$1755.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1745-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1760-1767 and 1774-1784-1790. Sell in between 1760-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1745-1737-1728 and 1718-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,745-1,736
S2     1,724
S3     1,717-1,710
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,760-1,770
R2     1,779
R3     1,790-1,804

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$22.79/oz and low of US$22.19/oz settled down by 0.0088% at US$22.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.20-19.55, targeting 22.60-22.90-23.50 and 24.45-25.05-25.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.60-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 21.50-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.55.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.20-21.50
S2     21.00
S3     20.50-19.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.60-22.90
R2     23.50
R3     23.75-24.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.481 Buy
20-DMA   22.82 Sell
50-DMA   23.72 Sell
100-DMA   24.54 Sell
200-DMA   24.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.60/bbl, intraday low of US$74.72/bbl and settled up by 2.327% to close at US$78.25/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.50-81.50 with stop loss at 81.50; targeting 78.90-78.00-77.50 and 76.30-75.70. Buy above 78.90-75.70 with risk daily closing below 75.70 and targeting 77.50-78.00-78.90 and 80.50-80.90-81.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.90-78.00
S2     77.50
S3     76.30-75.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.50-80.50
R2     81.00
R3     81.50-81.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.411 Sell
20-DMA   74.60 Buy
50-DMA   71.96 Buy
100-DMA   69.61 Buy
200-DMA   64.66 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.560 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1546/EUR, high of US$1.1571/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0424% to close at US$1.1550/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1640-1.1910 targeting 1.1590-1.1550 and 1.1510-1.1460-1.1420 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1590-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1640-1.1750-1.1800-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1560-1.1510
S2     1.1460
S3     1.1420-1.1350

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1590-1.1640
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800-1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3569/GBP, high of US$1.3637/GBP and settled the day up by 0.2717% to close at US$1.3613/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3610-1.3790 with targets at 1.3560-1.3510-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3340-1.3290 with stop loss should be 1.3790. Buy above 1.3560-1.3340 with targets 1.3610-1.3670-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3560-1.3510
S2     1.3450
S3     1.3400-1.3340

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3610-1.3670
R2     1.3710
R3     1.3750-1.3790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.305

Buy
20-DMA   1.3748 Buy
50-DMA   1.3791 Buy
100-DMA   1.3816 Buy
200-DMA   1.3723 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.146 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.00032 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.64/USD and settled the day up 0.208% at JPY111.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 111.70-108.50 with targets of 111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 112.50-114.90 with risk above 114.90 targeting 111.10-110.50-109.60 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.70-110.50
S2     109.50
S3     109.10-108.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.50-113.00
R2     113.50
R3     114.00-114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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