AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar rose to its highest in nearly three years versus the yen on Monday as investors remained confident the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a tapering of its massive bond-buying next month despite softer U.S. payrolls figures. That jobs data released on Friday pushed U.S. bond yields higher, and so the yen, which is known to be most sensitive to yield differentials, slipped to as low as 112.725 yen per dollar in Asian hours on Monday - a level last seen in December 2018. The Japanese currency was also hurt by a slight tilt towards riskier currencies as sterling and the Australian dollar both gained slightly on the greenback, leaving the dollar's index little changed at 94.154, not far from its one-year high of 94.504 touched earlier this month. U.S. currency and fixed income markets are closed on Monday for a holiday but benchmark 10-year Treasuries yield hit a four-month high of 1.617% on Friday, even after data showed the U.S. economy created the fewest jobs in nine months in September, significantly underperforming economists' forecasts. However, data for August was revised up sharply and the jobless rate dropped to an 18-month low, suggesting fears of labour shortage remain justified, keeping worries about inflation alive and giving the Federal Reserve justification to reduce its emergency stimulus begun last year. The Chinese yuan was little moved by the ongoing travails of Chinese developer China Evergrande Group, even as offshore bondholders brace for news on more than $148 million in looming bond coupon payments after the company missed two coupon deadlines last month. The offshore yuan was last at 6.4370 per dollar towards the top end of its recent range, but still short of its high of 6.422 hit in September. Concern about inflation is not limited to the United States, with supply disruptions and rising commodity prices affecting many other countries. The British pound held firmer at $1.3634, extending its recovery from a nine-month low set late last month, on growing expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates to curb soaring inflation. The U.S. jobs report was disappointing, with non-farm payrolls at 194,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.8% in September. With labor shortages still a possibility and fanning inflation concerns, the Fed is likely to begin asset tapering within 2021, as is widely expected. The U.S. releases further data, including the consumer price index, on Wednesday. Should the data be higher than expected, expectations of an earlier interest rate hike after asset tapering could bring further gains for the U.S. currency, according to analysts. Meanwhile, the Bank of England also signaled that it could also hike its interest rates. The pound extended its recovery from August’s nine-month low over the news.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin asset tapering as per its timeline despite the disappointing data in the latest U.S. jobs report. The U.S. Labor Department’s jobs report, released last Friday, showed that non-farm payrolls were at 194,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.8%, in September. Although the nonfarm payrolls figure was much lower than the 500,000 in forecast prepared by Investing.com, the Fed is widely expected to begin asset tapering in November 2021 as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country crested and began to decrease. Physical gold rates in India flipped to a discount for the first time in over two months during the past week, with rising local prices curbing demand. Meanwhile, buying in China was expected to pick up, with markets re-opened after the Golden Week holiday.
  • Oil prices surged again on Monday, extending multiweek gains as an energy crisis gripping major economies shows no sign of easing amid a pick up in economic activity and restrained supplies from major producers. Prices have risen as more vaccinated populations are brought out of coronavirus lockdowns, supporting a revival of economic activity, with Brent advancing for five weeks and U.S. crude for seven.
  • Coal and gas prices have also been surging as economies recover, making oil more attractive as a fuel for power generation, pushing crude markets higher. The energy crisis sweeping the world is raising the prospect of a difficult northern winter as heating demand rises. Fund managers increased their net long positions in U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Oct. 5, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. The speculator group increased combined futures and options position in New York and London by 8,902 contracts to 325,578 during the period, the commissions said. Drillers in the United States are taking advantage of the increase in prices and added five new oil wells last week, the fifth straight weekly increase in oil and gas rigs. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, last week decided to maintain a steady and gradual increase in production. OPEC releases its monthly oil report later this week.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th October 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,770 1,779 1,790-1,804
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.90 23.50 23.75-24.05
Crude Oil 80.50-81.00 81.50 81.90-82.50
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1640 1.1750 1.1800-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3770 1.3770 1.3840-1.3910
USD/JPY 113.00 113.50 114.00-114.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th October 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,745-1,736 1,724 1,717-1,710
Silver-XAG 22.20-21.50 21.00 20.50-19.90
Crude Oil 79.50-78.90 78.00 77.50-76.30
EURO/USD 1.1560-1.1510 1.1460 1.1420-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.3610-1.3560 1.3510 1.3770
USD/JPY 112.50-111.70 110.50 109.50-109.10

Intra-Day Strategy (11th October 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1781.23/oz and low of US$1753.25/oz. Gold up 0.0854% at US$1757.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1745-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1760-1767 and 1774-1784-1790. Sell in between 1760-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1745-1737-1728 and 1718-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,745-1,736
S2     1,724
S3     1,717-1,710
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,760-1,770
R2     1,779
R3     1,790-1,804

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$223.17/oz and low of US$22.42/oz settled up by 0.354% at US$22.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.20-19.55, targeting 22.60-22.90-23.50 and 24.45-25.05-25.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.60-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 21.50-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.55.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.20-21.50
S2     21.00
S3     20.50-19.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.60-22.90
R2     23.50
R3     23.75-24.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.481 Buy
20-DMA   22.82 Sell
50-DMA   23.72 Sell
100-DMA   24.54 Sell
200-DMA   24.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$79.71/bbl, intraday low of US$78.28/bbl and settled up by 0.701% to close at US$79.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.50-81.50 with stop loss at 81.50; targeting 78.90-78.00-77.50 and 76.30-75.70. Buy above 78.90-75.70 with risk daily closing below 75.70 and targeting 77.50-78.00-78.90 and 80.50-80.90-81.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     79.50-78.90
S2     78.00
S3     77.50-76.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     80.50-81.00
R2     81.50
R3     81.90-82.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.502 Sell
20-DMA   75.13 Buy
50-DMA   72.28 Buy
100-DMA   69.82 Buy
200-DMA   64.81 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.492 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1546/EUR, high of US$1.1571/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0424% to close at US$1.1550/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1590-1.1910 targeting 1.1590-1.1550 and 1.1510-1.1460-1.1420 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1560-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1640-1.1750-1.1800-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1560-1.1510
S2     1.1460
S3     1.1420-1.1350

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1590-1.1640
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800-1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3582/GBP, high of US$1.3657/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0734% to close at US$1.3614/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3610-1.3790 with targets at 1.3560-1.3510-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3340-1.3290 with stop loss should be 1.3790. Buy above 1.3560-1.3340 with targets 1.3610-1.3670-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3610-1.3560
S2     1.3510
S3     1.3770

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3770
R2     1.3770
R3     1.3840-1.3910

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.526

Buy
20-DMA   1.3642 Buy
50-DMA   1.3716 Buy
100-DMA   1.3769 Buy
200-DMA   1.3708 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.50/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.24/USD and settled the day up 0.567% at JPY112.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 111.70-108.50 with targets of 111.70-112.50 and 113.00-113.50 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 112.50-114.90 with risk above 114.90 targeting 111.10-110.50-109.60 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.50-111.70
S2     110.50
S3     109.50-109.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00
R2     113.50
R3     114.00-114.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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