AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar eased back from a one-year high versus major peers on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could provide additional clues on when the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus and raise interest rates. The dollar gained on Tuesday amid rising expectations the Fed will announce a tapering of stimulus next month, with interest rate hikes following next year. Money markets priced about a 50-50 chance of a rate increase by July, after three Fed policymakers said overnight that the U.S. economy has healed enough to begin to scale back the central bank's asset-purchase programme, including Vice Chair Richard Clarida. Meanwhile, a surge in energy prices has fuelled inflation concerns and stoked bets that the Fed may need to move faster to normalise policy than officials had projected Most Fed policymakers continue to say inflationary pressures will prove transitory. Governors Lael Brainard and Michelle Bowman are among the Fed officials due to speak later Wednesday, when the minutes of the central bank's September meeting are also due to be released.
  • The dollar weakened in early trade in Europe on Wednesday as markets regained their appetite for risk a little ahead of key inflation data later in the session. The rate of consumer price inflation in the U.S. is expected to have stayed at 5.3% in September, with core price inflation staying at 4.0%. Any number in excess of that is likely to feed expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates well before the end of next year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic had signaled on Tuesday that belief in the narrative of only ‘transitory’ inflation pressures – something that has guided Fed policy for the last 12 months - may be fading at the central bank. Bostic said there were increasing signs that the disruptions to supply chains that have been responsible for a large part of this year’s inflation will be around for longer than previously expected. Inflation data out of Europe earlier failed to generate any sort of surprise however, neither positive nor negative. Industrial production data for the euro zone are also likely to be weak when they are released at 5 AM ET, given the poor numbers out of Germany last week. Sterling, by contrast, edged up 0.1% against the dollar to $1.3605 and was flat near its recent high against the euro despite data showing that GDP disappointed in the three months through August. The data still keep the pound on course for an interest rate hike before year-end, but it faces headwinds from a dispute with the European Union over the implementation of the Brexit agreement in Northern Ireland. The EU is due to present fresh proposals to lower the tension there later on Wednesday, while the Bank of England’s John Cunliffe speaks at 10:30 AM ET. Concerns about the global growth outlook had been alleviated a little on Tuesday as the International Monetary Fund left its forecast for 2022 global GDP growth unchanged at 4.9%, although it cut its forecast for the current year marginally.
  • Oil prices edged down on Wednesday on concerns that oil demand growth will fall as major economies suffer through inflation and supply chain issues though surging prices for power generation fuel such as coal and natural gas limited losses. Both contracts pared losses after falling as much as 70 cents earlier when China, the world's biggest crude importer, released data showing September imports fell 15% from a year earlier. However, China, along with Europe and India, remains mired in coal and natural gas shortages that have pushed up prices for electricity generation fuels. China's thermal coal prices surged to record highs on Wednesday as recent floods in key coal-producing province Shanxi worsened a supply crunch, just as new efforts by Beijing to liberalise power prices boosted demand from power generators. Still, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth outlook for the United States and other major economies on worries supply chain disruptions and cost pressures are holding back a global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. A strong U.S. dollar, trading near a one-year high, also weighed on oil prices, as it makes oil more expensive for those holding other currencies. However, oil watchers are still focused on whether soaring gas and coal prices will lead to more demand for oil products for power generation. The market is also awaiting U.S. oil inventory data, delayed by a day following the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters estimate U.S. crude inventories rose by 100,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 8, which would mark a third straight week of increases. They also estimated that gasoline stockpiles rose about 100,000 barrels, while distillate inventories, which include diesel, heating oil and jet fuel, dropped by about 1 million barrels. Data from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday and from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th October 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,779 1,790 1,804-1,810
Silver-XAG 22.90-23.50 23.75 24.05-24.50
Crude Oil 80.50-81.00 81.50 81.90-82.50
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1640 1.1750 1.1800-1.1850
GBP/USD 1.3610-1.3670 1.3710 1.3770-1.3840
USD/JPY 114.00-114.90 115.50 116.00-116.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th October 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,745 1,736 1,724-1,717
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.20 21.50 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 79.50-78.90 78.00 77.50-76.30
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1510 1.1460 1.1420-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.3560-1.3510 1.3450 1.3400-1.3350
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00112.50112.50112.50 112.50 111.70-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (13th October 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1769.23/oz and low of US$1750.72/oz. Gold up 0.351% at US$1760.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1745-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1760-1767 and 1774-1784-1790. Sell in between 1760-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1745-1737-1728 and 1718-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,760-1,745
S2     1,736
S3     1,724-1,717
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,770-1,779
R2     1,790
R3     1,804-1,810

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$22.75/oz and low of US$22.33/oz settled down by 0.106% at US$22.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.60-19.55, targeting 22.60-22.90-23.50 and 24.45-25.05-25.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 22.90-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 21.50-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.55.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.60-22.20
S2     21.50
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.90-23.50
R2     23.75
R3     24.05-24.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.481 Buy
20-DMA   22.82 Sell
50-DMA   23.72 Sell
100-DMA   24.54 Sell
200-DMA   24.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$80.88/bbl, intraday low of US$78.94/bbl and settled down by 0.115% to close at US$79.85/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.50-81.50 with stop loss at 81.50; targeting 78.90-78.00-77.50 and 76.30-75.70. Buy above 78.90-75.70 with risk daily closing below 75.70 and targeting 77.50-78.00-78.90 and 80.50-80.90-81.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     79.50-78.90
S2     78.00
S3     77.50-76.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     80.50-81.00
R2     81.50
R3     81.90-82.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.502 Sell
20-DMA   75.13 Buy
50-DMA   72.28 Buy
100-DMA   69.82 Buy
200-DMA   64.81 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.492 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1569/EUR, high of US$1.1569/EUR and settled the day down by 0.1869% to close at US$1.1529/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1590-1.1910 targeting 1.1590-1.1550 and 1.1510-1.1460-1.1420 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1550-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1640-1.1750-1.1800-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1510
S2     1.1460
S3     1.1420-1.1350

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1590-1.1640
R2     1.1750
R3     1.1800-1.1850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3567/GBP, high of US$1.3636/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0573% to close at US$1.3586/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3560-1.3790 with targets at 1.3560-1.3510-1.3450 and 1.3400-1.3340-1.3290 with stop loss should be 1.3790. Buy above 1.3560-1.3340 with targets 1.3610-1.3670-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3560-1.3510
S2     1.3450
S3     1.3400-1.3350

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3610-1.3670
R2     1.3710
R3     1.3770-1.3840

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.526

Buy
20-DMA   1.3642 Buy
50-DMA   1.3716 Buy
100-DMA   1.3769 Buy
200-DMA   1.3708 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY112.99/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.78/USD and settled the day up 0.225% at JPY113.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.00-109.50 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.90-115.60-116.00 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 113.50-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 1101.10-110.50-109.60 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00112.50112.50112.50
S2     112.50
S3     111.70-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00-114.90
R2     115.50
R3     116.00-116.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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