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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged down against major peers on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in 10 days in a pullback from its recent rally, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy more quickly than previously expected have helped the dollar rise since early September. But its ascent has recently eased and on Thursday it was on track for its second biggest two-day drop so far this year, even after minutes of the Fed's September meeting confirmed tapering of stimulus is likely to start this year. A Labor Department report showed U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in September, and they are likely to rise further amid a surge in energy prices, potentially pressuring the Fed to act sooner to normalise policy. The Fed's September meeting minutes also showed that a growing number of policymakers were worried that high inflation could persist. U.S. initial jobless claims and PPI data are due later in the day. Swedish inflation picked up to its highest level since 2008 in September, prompting the Swedish crown to extend gains and reach its highest in eight months versus the euro. The Australian dollar, which is seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite, was up 0.5% versus the dollar at $0.74175. The currency brushed off data showing a drop in jobs numbers, with investors betting on a quick recovery since lockdown measures have eased. Turkey's lira pared losses, pulling back from the record low it touched overnight after President Tayyip Erdogan dismissed three members of the central bank's monetary policy committee.
  • The dollar eased against high-yielding currencies but advanced against the yen in early European trading on Thursday, as the market absorbed the implications of Wednesday higher-than-expected inflation data out of the U.S. The dollar’s only notable gains were against the yen, where it rose another 0.3% to 113.53, supported by ever stronger expectations of a widening interest rate differential with Japan. The U.S. inflation rate hit a fresh 13-year high of 5.3% in September while core inflation stayed at 4.0% thanks only to a sharp drop in air fares. Three senior Federal Reserve officials – Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly and Thomas Barkin – will have the opportunity to give their two cents’ worth on the developments in the course of the day. Minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, released on Wednesday, cemented expectations that the Fed will announce the start of the withdrawal of stimulus at next month. U.S. weekly jobless claims, due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT) head the day's economic calendar. In emerging markets, the dollar surged to a new record high of 9.1872 against the Turkish lira, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired three deputy central bank governors, further undermining its independence and anti-inflation credibility. The dismissals included the only member of the CBRT’s decision-making council to vote against its shock interest rate cut in September, which happened against a backdrop of near-20% inflation. The Chinese yuan edged lower after producer price inflation rose to a 26-year high at 10.7% in September, above expectations. China is one of few countries for whom an easing of monetary policy is on the table as it grapples with an ongoing credit crunch in real estate. The official yuan fixing of 6.4414 was the highest in nearly a month. Further inflationary pressure is in the pipeline for China’s factories after the government allowed industrial electricity prices to rise to ease the pressure on the country’s utilities earlier this week.
  • The oil market continues to face uncertainties stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told reporters on the sidelines of an energy forum in Moscow on Thursday. "The market is taking its course in accordance with supply and demand fundamentals. But we must admit there are external factors that are influencing the evolution of the market," he said. Regarding how COVID-19 is creating uncertainty Barkindo pointed to "responses by the governments as the various variants, mutations emerge and how the world is able to upscale the vaccination rates in particular in developing countries".Oil prices climbed on Thursday, reversing previous losses, as a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks prompted buying. The uptick was also supported by expectations that soaring natural gas prices as winter approaches will drive a switch to oil to meet heating demand. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Wednesday U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 5.2 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 8, but gasoline inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels and distillate stocks declined by 2.7 million barrels, according to market sources who saw the API data. Analysts in a Reuters poll expected crude inventories to rise by 0.7 million barrels, but gasoline stocks to drop by 0.1 million barrels and distillate to decline by 0.9 million barrels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+, earlier this month "reconfirmed the production adjustment plan", referring to a previously agreed deal under which 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) would be added in November. Angola is likely to struggle to meet its OPEC output quota for at least two years, Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa told Reuters last month. Oil prices were also supported by concerns about supply tightness after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that crude oil output in the United States, the world's biggest producer, is going to decline in 2021 more than previously forecast, though it will bounce back in 2022 The OPEC trimmed its world oil demand growth forecast for 2021 in its latest monthly report on Wednesday, while maintaining its 2022 view. However, the producer group said rising natural gas prices could boost demand for oil products as end users switch fuels. The EIA will release its inventory report later on Thursday at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT)

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th October 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,804-1,810 1,820 1,824-1,834
Silver-XAG 23.50 23.75 24.05-24.50
Crude Oil 81.00 81.50 81.90-82.50
EURO/USD 1.1640-1.1750 1.1800 1.1850-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.3770-1.3800 1.3860 1.3900-1.3970
USD/JPY 114.00-114.90 115.50 116.00-116.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th October 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,790-1,779 1,770 1,760-1,745
Silver-XAG 22.90-22.60 22.20 21.50-21.00
Crude Oil 80.50-79.50 78.90 78.00-77.50
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1540 1.1510 1.1460-1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3710-1.3670 1.3610 1.3560-1.3510
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.50 111.70-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (14th October 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Sell
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1814.80/oz and low of US$1797.72/oz. Gold up 1.857% at US$1804.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1745-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1760-1767 and 1774-1784-1790. Sell in between 1760-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1805, targeting 1745-1737-1728 and 1718-1710.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,790-1,779
S2     1,770
S3     1,760-1,745
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,804-1,810
R2     1,820
R3     1,824-1,834

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.689

Buy
20-DMA   1785.25 Sell
50-DMA  

1793.48

Sell
100-DMA   1799.92 Sell
200-DMA   1801.83 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   25.254 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.653 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$23.23/oz and low of US$22.45/oz settled up by 2.32% at US$23.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.90-19.55, targeting 22.60-22.90-23.50 and 24.45-25.05-25.50 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 23.50-24.70 with stop loss above 25.00; targeting 21.50-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.55.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.90-22.60
S2     22.20
S3     21.50-21.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.50
R2     23.75
R3     24.05-24.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.481 Buy
20-DMA   22.82 Sell
50-DMA   23.72 Sell
100-DMA   24.54 Sell
200-DMA   24.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.556 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$80.40/bbl, intraday low of US$78.82/bbl and settled down by 0.1477% to close at US$79.98/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.00-82.50 with stop loss at 81.50; targeting 78.90-78.00-77.50 and 76.30-75.70. Buy above 78.90-75.70 with risk daily closing below 75.70 and targeting 77.50-78.00-78.90 and 80.50-80.90-81.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     80.50-79.50
S2     78.90
S3     78.00-77.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     81.00
R2     81.50
R3     81.90-82.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.502 Sell
20-DMA   75.13 Buy
50-DMA   72.28 Buy
100-DMA   69.82 Buy
200-DMA   64.81 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.492 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1526/EUR, high of US$1.1596/EUR and settled the day down by 0.540% to close at US$1.1591/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.2143), which become immediate Support level, break above will target 1.2090. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and still giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in overbought region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1640-1.1910 targeting 1.1590-1.1550 and 1.1510-1.1460-1.1420 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910. Buy above 1.1550-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1640-1.1750-1.1800-1.1985 and 1.2050-1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1590-1.1540
S2     1.1510
S3     1.1460-1.1420

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1640-1.1750
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1850-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.720 Buy
20-DMA   1.1759 Sell
50-DMA   1.1798 Sell
100-DMA   1.1854 Sell
200-DMA   1.1867 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3575/GBP, high of US$1.3664/GBP and settled the day up by 0.512% to close at US$1.3655/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3867) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell in between 1.3770-1.3970 with targets at 1.3710-1.3670-1.3610 and 1.3560-1.3510-1.3450 with stop loss should be 1.3790. Buy above 1.3560-1.3340 with targets 1.3610-1.3670-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3550.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3710-1.3670
S2     1.3610
S3     1.3560-1.3510

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3770-1.3800
R2     1.3860
R3     1.3900-1.3970

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.526

Buy
20-DMA   1.3642 Buy
50-DMA   1.3716 Buy
100-DMA   1.3769 Buy
200-DMA   1.3708 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.54/USD and settled the day up 0.225% at JPY110.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.00-109.50 with targets of 113.50-114.00 and 114.90-115.60-116.00 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 113.50-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 1101.10-110.50-109.60 and 109.00-108.50-108.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.50
S3     111.70-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.00-114.90
R2     115.50
R3     116.00-116.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

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