AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded higher Thursday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses after the Federal Reserve said it was in no rush to raise interest rates after it began tapering its bond-buying program. The Fed announced late Wednesday that it would reduce its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program by $15 billion initially, as widely expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank would be "patient" in deciding when to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero levels. The dollar weakened Wednesday with traders judging Powell’s comments as being dovish, given that inflation currently stands at 30-year highs. However, it has since rebounded. Markets are pricing in a rate rise from the U.K. central bank on the back of surging inflation, which would be the first rate hike from the world’s major central banks since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. That said, the decision is likely to be a close call as economic growth is starting to slow.
  • The dollar halted its slide on Thursday after losing ground the day before when the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would not rush to raise interest rates, while the pound was on edge ahead of a closely watched Bank of England meeting. Sterling, which had initially led the gains on the dollar after the Fed was last at $1.3660, down from its week high of $1.3698 hit in early Asian hours Thursday. The euro, which had also climbed on Wednesday, gave up some of its gains and stood at $1.15932. The two accounted for many of the moves of the dollar index which rose 0.15% on Thursday after Wednesday's 0.25% fall. Moves in the British currency were also capped by caution ahead of a Bank of England meeting at which could it could become the first of the world's big central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic. Markets are pricing in a rate rise from the BoE, and a steady pace of rises in 2022, but economists polled by Reuters said it was too close to call, as Britain, like much of the world grapples with balancing rate rises to combat inflation with worries about the growth outlook. Minutes of BoE's Monetary Policy Committee meeting are due at 12.00 GMT. Overnight the Fed announced a $15 billion monthly cut to its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, but chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank would be "patient" in deciding when to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero levels.
  • Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, bouncing back from a three-week low. Investors digested the latest policy decision from a “patient” U.S. Federal Reserve that will begin asset tapering beginning this month. The Fed handed down its decision on Wednesday, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that interest rate hikes will not come anytime soon. However, he added that “we think we can be patient. If a response is called for, we will not hesitate.” Although the Fed maintained its view that inflation is temporary, the smooth start to the central bank’s asset tapering program gave global shares a boost. Investors now await the Bank of England (BOE)’s policy decision, due later in the day. BOE is expected to either hike interest rates from an all-time low or to wait for the post-lockdown economy to be ready for such a move. Also, on investors’ radars in the latest U.S. jobs report, including non-farm payrolls, due on Friday.
  • Oil prices flipped to gains on Thursday as investors expect top producers to stand pat on output policy, shrugging off earlier concerns about the resumption of Iran nuclear talks that could result in more oil exports from Tehran. The group is expected to reconfirm plans to keep monthly supply increases steady, despite calls for an acceleration. Prices were down earlier, after Iran and six powers agreed to resume talks on Nov. 29 to revive the 2015 nuclear deal in Vienna. Iran has demanded that the United States drop sanctions that have limited its oil exports. News of the resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks has probably wiped out any last hope for OPEC+ to boost production targets, supporting prices, said OANDA's senior analyst, Jeffrey Halley. Citi analysts said OPEC+ was likely to stick to current policy, despite pressure from oil importers. Top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are also more confident that higher oil prices will not elicit a fast response from the U.S. shale industry, OPEC+ sources said, reflecting a desire to rebuild revenue and supporting the case against raising OPEC+ output more quickl However, several major oil companies plan to increase output or shale spending next year, which could undercut OPEC+'s efforts to control supplies and support prices. On Wednesday, both benchmarks posted their biggest daily percentage declines since early August, with Brent closing at its lowest since Oct. 7 and WTI since Oct. 13, after weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger than expected rise in crude stocks last week.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,779¬-1,790 1,804 1,810-1,816
Silver-XAG 23.50-23.75 24.55 25.50-25.80
Crude Oil 80.50-81.40 81.90 82.50-83.10
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1650 1.1700 1.1750-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3780 1.3780 1.3810-1.3860
USD/JPY 114.30-114.90 115.50 116.00-116.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,760 1,745 1,730-1,720
Silver-XAG 23.20-22.60 22.20 21.80-21.40
Crude Oil 79.90-79.40 79.00 78.40-77.20
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1510 1.1460 1.1420-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.3610-1.3560 1.3510 1.3450-1.3390
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.50 111.70-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (4th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1788.13/oz and low of US$1769.59/oz. Gold down % at US$1769.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1770-1736 with risk below 1736, targeting 1779-1790-1804 and 1810-1816-1832. Sell in between 1779-1840 keeping stop loss closing above 1840, targeting 1790-1780-1774 and 1760-1745-1737.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,770-1,760
S2     1,745
S3     1,730-1,720
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,779¬-1,790
R2     1,804
R3     1,810-1,816

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.769

Buy
20-DMA   1781.40 Buy
50-DMA  

1780.67

Buy
100-DMA   1788.09 Buy
200-DMA   1794.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   56.96 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.266 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$23.61/oz and low of US$23.37/oz settled down by 0.0595% at US$23.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.20-21.90, targeting 23.50-23.75-24.45 and 25.05-25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below21.90. Sell in between 23.50-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.20-22.60-22.00 and 21.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.20-22.60
S2     22.20
S3     21.80-21.40

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.50-23.75
R2     24.55
R3     25.50-25.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.284 Buy
20-DMA   23.40 Sell
50-DMA   23.54 Sell
100-DMA   24.18 Sell
200-DMA   24.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.950 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$82.20/bbl, intraday low of US$79.98/bbl and settled down by % to close at US$79.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.50-83.10 with stop loss at 83.10; targeting 79.90-79.40-79.00 and 78.40-77.20. Buy above 79.90-77.20 with risk daily closing below 77.20 and targeting 80.50-81.40-81.90 and 82.50-83.10-84.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     79.90-79.40
S2     79.00
S3     78.40-77.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     80.50-81.40
R2     81.90
R3     82.50-83.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.764 Sell
20-DMA   80.32 Buy
50-DMA   76.27 Buy
100-DMA   72.62 Buy
200-DMA   66.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.445 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1561/EUR, high of US$1.16155/EUR and settled the day up by 0.294% to close at US$1.1611/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1590-1.1640-1.1750 and 1.1800-1.1985-1.2050. Sell below 1.1590-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1510-1.1460 and 1.1420-1.1390 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1510
S2     1.1460
S3     1.1420-1.1390

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1590-1.1650
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1750-1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.647 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Buy
50-DMA   1.1672 Sell
100-DMA   1.1752 Sell
200-DMA   1.1806 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3606/GBP, high of US$1.3691/GBP and settled the day down by 0.516% to close at US$1.3684/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3610-1.3390 with targets 1.3680-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3860-1.3910-1.3950 with stop loss closing below 1.3390. Sell in between 1.3680-1.3860 with targets at 1.3610-1.3560-1.3510 and 1.3450-1.3390 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3610-1.3560
S2     1.3510
S3     1.3450-1.3390

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3780
R2     1.3780
R3     1.3810-1.3860

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.207

Buy
20-DMA   1.3710 Buy
50-DMA   1.3721 Buy
100-DMA   1.3758 Buy
200-DMA   1.3758 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.71/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.20/USD and settled the day up 0.211% at JPY113.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.50-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90-115.60 and 116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.20-116.90 with risk above 116.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.50
S3     111.70-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.30-114.90
R2     115.50
R3     116.00-116.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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