AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar drifted lower in early European trade Monday, retreating from Friday’s peaks ahead of the release this week of key U.S. inflation data, potentially another test of the Federal Reserve’s thinking over the timing of interest rate hikes. Additionally, EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1564, staying just above the 15-month low of 1.1513 made on Friday, while USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 113.56, clawing back some of the ground lost last week. GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3487, after falling as far as 1.3425 on Friday, a five-week low, in the wake of the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates unchanged. The drift lower in the dollar in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s insistence that it would be "patient" in deciding when to raise rates even as it began tapering was abruptly reversed Friday following the strong payrolls release. The Fed had called for a further recovery in the labor market before it considered lifting its benchmark interest rates, and that’s what they received. October nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 jobs, and data for September was revised higher to show 312,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 194,000. There are no fewer than six Fed officials due to speak Monday, which may give an idea as to how solid the consensus on future rates is at the central bank. This comes ahead of Wednesday’s release of the latest U.S. inflation data, which are expected to show consumer growth running hot, further testing the resolve of these central bankers. The Communist Party begins a meeting on Monday which is expected to lay the groundwork for a third term in charge for President Xi Jinping.
  • The dollar made a steady start to the week in Asia on Monday but stayed below Friday peaks, as currency traders seek a path between markets' volatile rate projections and central bankers vowing a wait-and-see approach despite surging inflation. The next big test of faith in the Federal Reserve's insistence on patience looms on Wednesday, when U.S. inflation data is expected to show consumer growth running hot Sterling, which was walloped when the Bank of England (BoE) surprised traders by holding rates steady last week, hovered at $1.3478 after falling as far as $1.3425 on Friday, a five-week low. The BoE's surprise triggered a sharp pullback in aggressive bets on imminent rate hikes in Britain and globally. Later on Monday no fewer than six Fed officials are speaking, with the most attention likely to be on Vice Chair Richard Clarida who is talking on Fed and ECB policy. Elsewhere, data showed Chinese exports were unexpectedly strong and imports unexpectedly soft in another indicator of underwhelming demand, especially as China tightens movement restrictions to keep a lid on COVID-19. The Communist Party begins a meeting on Monday which is expected to pass a resolution in praise of President Xi Jinping and lay the groundwork for a third term of his leadership. Traders are also looking ahead to Chinese producer and consumer price data due on Wednesday, with annual producer price growth seen surging to 12% in perhaps a harbinger of further price pressure to come through global supply chains.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as positive signs for global economic growth supported the outlook for energy demand, while Saudi Arabia's state-owned producer Aramco raised the official selling price for its crude. U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday welcomed congressional passage of a long-delayed $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which may boost growth and demand for fuel. China's export growth slowed in October but beat forecasts, buoyed by rising global demand ahead of the winter holiday seasons and improvements in coronavirus-hit supply chains. Saudi Arabia late on Friday raised the price of its benchmark crude for customers in Asia in December, exceeding market expectations. The move by Aramco suggests "demand remains strong" as the OPEC producer and other major oil exporters keep the reins on supply, ANZ Research said in a note. Demand for jet fuel looks set to take off as more governments make air travel easier with reduced restrictions for coronavirus. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, together known as OPEC+, agreed last week to stick to their plan to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day from December. Biden had called on OPEC+ to produce more crude to dampen rising prices and on Saturday said his administration has "other tools" to deal with the higher price of oil. Elsewhere, China's oil imports slumped in October to the lowest in three years, as state-owned refiners withheld purchases due to higher prices, while independent refiners were restrained by limited quotas for bringing in crude. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration will look at U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration during the week, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Sunday. Oil’s recent rallies to seven-year highs alarmed Biden, who called for OPEC+ to increase supply. However, OPEC+ is unlikely to change its stance, and Aramco’s move is also a signal that Saudi Arabia will continue to resist U.S. pressure to pump faster, said Mike Muller, the head of Asia for Vitol. In Asia Pacific, China's oil imports fell in October to the lowest level in three years. State-owned refiners were restricted from purchases due to higher prices, while independent refiners faced limited quotas for importing crude.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,818-1,829 1,834 1,840-1,849
Silver-XAG 24.55-25.50 25.80 26.20-26.50
Crude Oil 81.40-81.90 82.50 83.00-83.60
EURO/USD 1.1590-1.1650 1.1700 1.1750-1.1800
GBP/USD 1.3490-1.3520 1.3560 1.3610--1.3680
USD/JPY 114.30-114.90 115.50 116.00-116.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,810-1,804 1,790 1,779¬-1,770
Silver-XAG 23.75-23.20 22.60 22.20-21.80
Crude Oil 80.50-79.90 79.40 79.00-78.40
EURO/USD 1.1540-1.1510 1.1460 1.1420-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.3455-1.3350 1.3310 1.3250-1.3200
USD/JPY 113.50-113.00 112.50 111.70-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (8th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1818.18/oz and low of US$1784.92/oz. Gold up 1.469% at US$1817.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1810-1770 with risk below 1770, targeting 1818-1829-1834 and 1840-1849. Sell in between 1818-1849 keeping stop loss closing above 1849, targeting 1810-1804-1790 and 1780-1774-1760.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,810-1,804
S2     1,790
S3     1,779¬-1,770
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,818-1,829
R2     1,834
R3     1,840-1,849

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.864

Buy
20-DMA   1788.90 Buy
50-DMA  

1784.12

Buy
100-DMA   1788.90 Buy
200-DMA   1794.34 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.96 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   5.266 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.16/oz and low of US$23.59/oz settled up by 1.606% at US$24.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.75-21.90, targeting 23.90-24.45 and 25.05-25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below21.90. Sell in between 23.90-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.20-22.60-22.00 and 21.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.75-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.20-21.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.55-25.50
R2     25.80
R3     26.20-26.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.284 Buy
20-DMA   23.40 Sell
50-DMA   23.54 Sell
100-DMA   24.18 Sell
200-DMA   24.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.950 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$80.89/bbl, intraday low of US$78.12/bbl and settled up by 2.179% to close at US$80.31/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.40-83.10 with stop loss at 83.10; targeting 78.40-77.20-76.40-75.90. Buy above 80.50-78.40 with risk daily closing below 78.40 and targeting 79.90-80.50-81.40 and 81.90-82.50-83.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     80.50-79.90
S2     79.40
S3     79.00-78.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     81.40-81.90
R2     82.50
R3     83.00-83.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.943 Sell
20-DMA   80.62 Buy
50-DMA   77.43 Buy
100-DMA   73.72 Buy
200-DMA   67.87 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.1083 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1512/EUR, high of US$1.1572/EUR and settled the day up by 0.121% to close at US$1.1566/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1590-1.1640-1.1750 and 1.1800-1.1985-1.2050. Sell below 1.1590-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1510-1.1460 and 1.1420-1.1390 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1540-1.1510
S2     1.1460
S3     1.1420-1.1390

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1590-1.1650
R2     1.1700
R3     1.1750-1.1800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.647 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Buy
50-DMA   1.1672 Sell
100-DMA   1.1752 Sell
200-DMA   1.1806 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3423/GBP, high of US$1.3508/GBP and settled the day up by 0.005% to close at US$1.3497/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3455-1.3200 with targets 1.3510-1.3560 and 1.3680-1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3520-1.3680 with targets at 1.3390-1.3350-1.3310 and 1.3520-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3455-1.3350
S2     1.3310
S3     1.3250-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3490-1.3520
R2     1.3560
R3     1.3610--1.3680

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.646

Buy
20-DMA   1.3644 Buy
50-DMA   1.3690 Buy
100-DMA   1.3738 Buy
200-DMA   1.3703 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY113.29/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.02/USD and settled the day down 0.314% at JPY113.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.50-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90-115.60 and 116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.20-116.90 with risk above 116.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.50-113.00
S2     112.50
S3     111.70-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.30-114.90
R2     115.50
R3     116.00-116.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

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