AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The yen hit a one-month high and the dollar was held below recent peaks on Tuesday as traders awaited inflation figures due in the U.S. and China to guide the interest rate outlook, while momentum carried bitcoin to a fresh record high. The data due on Wednesday is expected to show U.S. consumer prices galloped and Chinese factory gate prices soared in October. But it also comes as commodity prices have eased from peaks and central bankers have dampened speculation that they will raise interest rates imminently Fed funds futures have pushed back the likely date for rates lift-off from around July next year to September or October. Analysts at Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF) expect the Fed to raise rates slowly after making its first hike in the third quarter of next year. Last week, the Bank of England surprised investors by holding rates, while the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve dampened market expectations that they would hike rates aggressively. By contrast, the kiwi, having jumped on Monday, was steadied around $0.7164, drawing support from traders wary of the possibility that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could raise rates by as much as 50 basis points (bps) later this month. Bitcoin, which is sometimes seen as an inflation hedge and has been surging on a wave of positive news, rose to a record $68,564 in Asia trade, pulling ether with it to a record $4,800. Ahead of the inflation data, a slew of central bankers are due to speak later on Tuesday, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at 1300 GMT and Fed chair Jerome Powell at 1400 GMT.
  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining a little below 2021's peaks hit on Tuesday. Cryptocurrencies scaled records, while inflation numbers loom as the next test of traders' thinking on the outlook for interest rates. Inflation data, including consumer and producer price data indexes from both China and the U.S., is due on Wednesday. The data could also test central bankers’ view that inflation is temporary. Ahead of the data, a group of central bankers, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will speak on Tuesday. The Bank of England gave markets a surprise last week when it kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.10%. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Fed also did not hike interest rates despite aggressive market predictions. The dollar dipped on Monday after hitting 15-month highs on Friday following strong U.S. jobs data while investors digested the report, looked ahead to inflation data and monitored commentary from Federal Reserve officials for rate policy clues. On Wednesday the Fed had stuck to its view that current high inflation is expected to be transitory and said it would start trimming its massive bond-buying program this month, but wait for more job growth before raising interest rates. Then on Friday, U.S. data showed employment increased more than expected in October as the headwind from the surge in COVID-19 infections over the summer subsided, showing economic activity regaining momentum early in the fourth quarter. U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Monday turned their focus toward interest rate policy with Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida saying conditions for a rate hike could be met next year with job growth expected to continue and inflation already pushing beyond comfortable levels. In separate remarks St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard repeated his view the Fed needs to raise rates twice next year. The next test of the Fed's wait-and-see approach to inflation will be U.S. CPI data due on Wednesday. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculators scaled back their net long position on the dollar for the fourth week running in the week to Nov. 2. Euro zone inflation will ease next year and remains too weak in the medium term, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane told a Spanish newspaper, repeating the bank's long-standing message that high price growth is temporary.
  • Oil was down Tuesday morning in Asia. However, stronger fuel demand as the U.S. passed a massive infrastructure bill capped losses for the black liquid. The U.S. Congress passed President Joe Biden’s long-delayed $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed through Congress over the weekend. Sunday's better-than-expected export data from China also bolstered fuel demand. Global demand for oil in November was already nearly back to pre-COVID levels of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) analysts said in a note. "More consumption growth lies in wait once travel begins in earnest and jet fuel demand picks up." However, "the big unknown is whether economies can achieve growth amid the current high price environment, or potentially in an even higher price scenario," Rystad Energy senior oil markets analyst Louise Dickson told Reuters. Oil hit a seven-year high as major producers maintained strict supply discipline in October, and fuel values also rose. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is sticking to its plan to increase supply at a rate of 400,000 barrels a day for now. The U.S. and other consumers such as Japan and India have called on the cartel to accelerate their output. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Monday that Biden may take measures as early as this week to address soaring gasoline prices. “He’s certainly looking at what options he has in the limited range of tools a president might have to address the cost of gasoline at the pump because it is a global market,” Granholm told MSNBC. Investors now await U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due later in the week. "If the U.S. doesn't get OPEC+ to respond to its pledge for more output, it has its own arsenal of tools to deploy to battle high prices of refined oil products," Dickson said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,829-1,834 1,840 1,851-1,863
Silver-XAG 24.55-25.50 25.80 26.20-26.50
Crude Oil 81.40-81.90 82.50 83.00-83.60
EURO/USD 1.1655-1.1700 1.1735 1.1795-1.1830
GBP/USD 1.3605--1.3690 1.3740 1.3800-1.3830
USD/JPY 113.00-113.50 114.30 114.90-115.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,818-1,810 1,804 1,790-1,779
Silver-XAG 23.75-23.20 22.60 22.20-21.80
Crude Oil 80.50-79.90 79.40 79.00-78.40
EURO/USD .1590-1.1540 1.1510 1.1460-1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3560-1.3490 1.3455 1.3350-1.3310
USD/JPY 112.35-111.70 111.30 110.80-110.50

Intra-Day Strategy (9th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1826.32/oz and low of US$1812.33/oz. Gold up 0.320% at US$1812.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1818-1770 with risk below 1770, targeting 1829-1834 and 1840-1849. Sell in between 1829-1863 keeping stop loss closing above 1849, targeting 1818-1810-1804 and 1790-1782-1774.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,818-1,810
S2     1,804
S3     1,790-1,779
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,829-1,834
R2     1,840
R3     1,851-1,863

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.514

Buy
20-DMA   1792.97 Buy
50-DMA  

1786.00

Buy
100-DMA   1789.76 Buy
200-DMA   1794.72 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   97.96 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   10.266 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.50/oz and low of US$24.04/oz settled up by 1.021% at US$24.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.20-21.90, targeting 24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.55-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.90-23.20-22.60 and 22.00-21.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.75-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.20-21.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.55-25.50
R2     25.80
R3     26.20-26.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.284 Buy
20-DMA   23.40 Sell
50-DMA   23.54 Sell
100-DMA   24.18 Sell
200-DMA   24.51 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   73.950 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$81.74/bbl, intraday low of US$80.27/bbl and settled up by 1.194% to close at US$81.24/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.40-83.10 with stop loss at 83.10; targeting 80.50-79.90-79.40 and 78.40-77.20-76.40. Buy above 80.50-78.40 with risk daily closing below 78.40 and targeting 79.90-80.50-81.40 and 81.90-82.50-83.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     80.50-79.90
S2     79.40
S3     79.00-78.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     81.40-81.90
R2     82.50
R3     83.00-83.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.943 Sell
20-DMA   80.66 Buy
50-DMA   77.58 Buy
100-DMA   73.87 Buy
200-DMA   68.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.026 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1549/EUR, high of US$1.1594/EUR and settled the day up by 0.237% to close at US$1.1586/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1540-1.1410 with risk below 1.1410, targeting 1.1590-1.1640-1.1750 and 1.1800-1.1985-1.2050. Sell below 1.1590-1.1800 targeting 1.1540-1.1510-1.1460 and 1.1420-1.1390 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1910.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     .1590-1.1540
S2     1.1510
S3     1.1460-1.1420

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1655-1.1700
R2     1.1735
R3     1.1795-1.1830

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.647 Buy
20-DMA   1.1617 Buy
50-DMA   1.1672 Sell
100-DMA   1.1752 Sell
200-DMA   1.1806 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.891 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3423/GBP, high of US$1.3579/GBP and settled the day up by 0.005% to close at US$1.3561/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3455-1.3200 with targets 1.3510-1.3560 and 1.3680-1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3520-1.3680 with targets at 1.3390-1.3350-1.3310 and 1.3520-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3560-1.3490
S2     1.3455
S3     1.3350-1.3310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3605--1.3690
R2     1.3740
R3     1.3800-1.3830

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.901

Buy
20-DMA   1.3645 Buy
50-DMA   1.3689 Buy
100-DMA   1.3737 Buy
200-DMA   1.3702 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.07/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.66/USD and settled the day down 0.1120% at JPY113.21/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 112.50-110.50 with targets of 113.50-114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 113.00-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     112.35-111.70
S2     111.30
S3     110.80-110.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.00-113.50
R2     114.30
R3     114.90-115.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.00 Buy
20-DMA   110.86 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   109.89 Sell
200-DMA   109.00 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   73.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING