AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, while the Euro fell to a 16-month low, as investors await U.S. retail sales data. A strong reading could pressurize the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said to a parliamentary committee that he was “very uneasy” about inflation, which caused the euro’s fall to its steepest slide against the pound in six months. Overnight the EUR/USD tumbled below $1.14 for the first time since July 2021 as the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe rise. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagard pushed back on the need to tame inflation, telling European Union lawmakers, “if we were to take any tightening measures now, it could cause far more harm than it would do any good.” Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales figures will be released later in the day, and Monday's NY Empire State Manufacturing Index was a stronger-than-expected 30.90 in November. The Eurozone consumer price index is due on Wednesday.
  • The safe-haven dollar hit a 16-month high against its major peers on Monday, fueled by global growth and inflation concerns, as well as monetary policy expectations, as investors awaited data this week on the strength of U.S. consumers. The dollar surged on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve's view that price pressures will be transitory and fueling speculation that interest rates will be lifted sooner than previously thought. Demand for the greenback had softened on Friday, when a report showed consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest in a decade, due in part to the surge in inflation. But it firmed again on Monday after policy makers in Europe and the United Kingdom voiced growth and pricing concerns. Investors will look to U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday for clues as to where the dollar may be headed next. The data is expected to show retail sales rose 1.1% last month, according to a Reuters poll. Gains in the heavily euro-weighted dollar index have also been helped by a decline in the single currency, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde continuing to push back on market bets for tighter policy. Supply-chain bottlenecks and soaring energy costs are slowing euro zone growth and will keep inflation elevated for longer than had been thought, Lagarde said.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, after hitting a five-month peak during the previous session. Persistent concerns about inflation continued to give the yellow metal a boost even as the dollar strengthened. Investors now await U.S. retail sales data, due later in the day, to gauge the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rate hikes. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Monday the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates if high inflation continues to persist, but added that the Fed should wait to see if inflation and labor shortages will be more long-lasting. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was “very uneasy” about high inflation and that he voted to keep interest rates unchanged earlier in November when the central bank handed down its policy decision European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that tightening monetary policy now to tame inflation could choke off the euro zone’s recovery, pushing back on the need for tighter policy.
  • Oil rebounded from a weak start on Tuesday as worries over tight inventories underpinned prices, although optimism was limited by fears over demand following a pickup in COVID-19 cases in Europe. Global oil markets remain very tight and heavily backwardated as demand returns to pre-pandemic levels, Trafigura's Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Weir said. Russian crude grades sold in Asia fetched the highest spot premiums in 22 months for cargoes loading in January, extending gains for a fourth straight month as robust demand and firm refining margins support prices, trade sources said on Tuesday. Still, worries about demand destruction due to the COVID-19 pandemic weighed. Europe has again become the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting some governments to consider re-imposing lockdowns, while China is battling the spread of its biggest outbreak caused by the Delta variant. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week cut its world oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter by 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) from last month's forecast, as high energy prices hampered economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Fears of declining demand come as supplies are expected to rise. Last week, U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row, encouraged by a 65% increase in U.S. crude prices so far this year. U.S. shale production in December is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels of 8.68 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Nov. 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Monday. The speculator group raised its futures and options position in New York and London by 11,328 contracts to 353,807 during the period.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,868-1,874 1,880 1,890-1,900
Silver-XAG 25.10-25.50 25.80 26.20-26.50
Crude Oil 80.50-81.40 81.90 82.50-83.10
EURO/USD 1.1385-1.1420 1.1485 1.1510-1.1540
GBP/USD 1.3460-1.3490 1.3530 1.3605-1.3550
USD/JPY 114.30-114.70 115.00 115.50-115.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,863-1,852 1,840 1,834-1,818
Silver-XAG 24.55-23.75 23.20 22.60-22.20
Crude Oil 79.90-79.00 78.05 77.60-76.90
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1310 1.1250 1.1200-1.1170
GBP/USD 1.3390-1.3350 1.3310 1.3265-1.3190
USD/JPY 113.90-113.45 112.80 112.30-111.70

Intra-Day Strategy (16th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1870.40/oz and low of US$1856.29/oz. Gold down 0.414% at US$1862.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1862-1819 with risk below 1819, targeting 1874-1880-1890 and 1904. Sell in between 1874-1889 keeping stop loss closing above 1889, targeting 1818-1810-1804 and 1790-1782-1774.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,863-1,852
S2     1,840
S3     1,834-1,818
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,868-1,874
R2     1,880
R3     1,890-1,900

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.842

Buy
20-DMA   1796.72 Buy
50-DMA  

1787.84

Buy
100-DMA   1790.61 Buy
200-DMA   1795.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.413 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.203 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$25.36/oz and low of US$24.89/oz settled down by 1.015% at US$25.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.55-21.90, targeting 24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 25.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-23.75
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.10-25.50
R2     25.80
R3     26.20-26.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$80.06/bbl, intraday low of US$78.30/bbl and settled up by 0.667% to close at US$79.81/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.50-83.10 with stop loss at 83.10; targeting 79.90-79.00-78.40-77.60 and 76.90-76.00. Buy above 79.90-76.00 with risk daily closing below 76.00 and targeting 80.50-81.40 and 81.90-83.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     79.90-79.00
S2     78.05
S3     77.60-76.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     80.50-81.40
R2     81.90
R3     82.50-83.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.374 Sell
20-DMA   80.54 Sell
50-DMA   78.09 Buy
100-DMA   74.50 Buy
200-DMA   68.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1355/EUR, high of US$1.1463/EUR and settled the day down by 0.694% to close at US$1.1366/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1335-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1385-1.1420-1.1485 and 1.1510-1.1590-1.1640. Sell below 1.1385-1.1540 targeting 1.1355 and 1.1310-1.1250 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1355-1.1310
S2     1.1250
S3     1.1200-1.1170

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1385-1.1420
R2     1.1485
R3     1.1510-1.1540

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.908 Buy
20-DMA   1.1528 Buy
50-DMA   1.1612 Sell
100-DMA   1.1705 Sell
200-DMA   1.1777 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   5.6850 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3402/GBP, high of US$1.3448/GBP and settled the day down by 0.080% to close at US$1.3409/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3150 with targets 1.3390-1.3455-1.3510 and 1.3560-1.3680 with stop loss closing below 1.3100. Sell in between 1.3390-1.3680 with targets at 1.3350-1.3310 and 1.3265-1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3390-1.3350
S2     1.3310
S3     1.3265-1.3190

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3460-1.3490
R2     1.3530
R3     1.3605-1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.233

Buy
20-DMA   1.3598 Buy
50-DMA   1.3665 Buy
100-DMA   1.3723 Buy
200-DMA   1.3696 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.74/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.21/USD and settled the day up 0.184% at JPY114.11/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.90-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.30-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.90-113.45
S2     112.80
S3     112.30-111.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.30-114.70
R2     115.00
R3     115.50-115.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.207 Buy
20-DMA   113.47 Sell
50-DMA   112.46 Sell
100-DMA   111.37 Sell
200-DMA   110.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   0.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING