AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded higher Wednesday, benefiting from the release of strong retail sales during the previous session, while sterling climbed after a hot inflation release pointed to a December Bank of England interest rate hike. The latest catalyst for these dollar gains was the release of surprisingly strong U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday, which climbed 1.7% on the month in October. This added to the momentum generated last week by consumer prices surging at the highest rate since 1990, and could encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to accelerate the tapering of its asset purchase program, likely bringing forward the timetable of interest rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added oil to the fire, stating on Tuesday that the central bank should "tack in a more hawkish direction" over its next couple of meetings. At the same time, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has this week pushed back on the idea of her central bank lifting interest rates in the near future, warning that tightening monetary policy now to rein in inflation could choke off the Eurozone's recovery. Elsewhere, GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3463 after British inflation surged to a 10-year high last month, cementing expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next month, which would make it the first G7 central bank to do so since the pandemic. Consumer prices rose by 4.2% in annual terms in October, a larger rise than had been expected, and a significant jump from the 3.1% increase in September. This comes the day after the release of stronger-than-expected U.K. employment data even with the end of the government's job-protecting furlough scheme.
  • The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, remaining near a 16-month peak. Investors also digested the latest U.S. economic data and raised bets for an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve U.S. data released on Tuesday showed that core retail sales grew by a better-than-expected 1.7% month-on-month in October. Retail sales also grew a better-than-expected 1.7%. However, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said on Tuesday that the Fed should "tack in a more hawkish direction" in preparation for longer-term high inflation. Across the Atlantic, rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in Europe triggered worries about the continent’s economic recovery from COVID-19. Germany will vote on Thursday on stricter measures to curb its outbreak after Austria imposed a lockdown on unvaccinated people earlier in the week. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will speak later in the day, with ECB board member Isabel Schnabel also speaking at a separate event. Elsewhere in Europe, the U.K. releases its consumer price index later in the day, which could provide further support to the Bank of England tightening its monetary policy.
  • Gold was up on Wednesday morning in Asia but remained near a recent low as strong U.S. retail sales reading drove the dollar close to a 16-month high. Data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. retail sales grew 1.7%, which is better than expected. Core retail sales grew a better-than-expected 1.7%. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Tuesday that the Fed should "tack in a more hawkish direction" in preparation for longer-term high inflation. Inflation at persistently high levels is raising bets that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rate hikes earlier than expected. In the U.K., better-than-expected employment data from the Office for National Statistics eased concerns that the Bank of England will hike interest rates. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in September. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe also said that recent data does not justify an interest rate Down Under. Australia's wage price index growing 2.2% and 0.6% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively in the third quarter.
  • Oil fell on Wednesday after an industry report showed U.S. gasoline stocks dropped more than expected last week, potentially heightening pressure on the Biden administration to release oil from emergency reserves to cap soaring fuel prices. U.S. President Joe Biden has been considering releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to cool gasoline prices, which hit a record high at California pumps this week. Lawmakers, however, have mixed views on whether it is needed. The United States is the world's biggest oil user. U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said late on Tuesday he did not agree with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's call on Sunday for tapping the SPR to lower gas prices, saying the reserve was there to fill a crude oil supply gap in times of emergency. Analysts say SPR oil would only offer temporary relief and what is needed is increased supply from U.S. shale producers or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed gasoline stocks fell by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 12, according to market sources. [API/S] The drawdown was much bigger than the 600,000-barrel decrease that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Crude inventories rose by 655,000 barrels, the market sources said. That was less than analysts' expectations for a build of 1.4 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,863-1,868 1,874 1,880-1,890
Silver-XAG 25.10-25.50 25.80 26.20-26.50
Crude Oil 79.90-80.50 81.40 81.90-83.10
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1385 1.1485-1.1510 1.1485-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3460-1.3490 1.3530 1.3605-1.3550
USD/JPY 115.00-¬115.50 115.90 116.50-117.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,852-1,840 1,834 1,818-1,804
Silver-XAG 24.55-23.75 23.20 22.60-22.20
Crude Oil 79.00-78.05 77.60 76.90-76.00
EURO/USD 1.1290-1.1250 1.1200 1.1170-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.3390-1.3350 1.3265-1.3190 1.3265-1.3190
USD/JPY 114.70-114.30 113.90 113.45-112.80

Intra-Day Strategy (17th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1877.02/oz and low of US$1849.60/oz. Gold down 0.655% at US$1850.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1852-1819 with risk below 1819, targeting 1863-1874-1880 and 1890-1904. Sell in between 1863-1889 keeping stop loss closing above 1889, targeting 1852-1840-1834 and 1818-1810-1804.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,852-1,840
S2     1,834
S3     1,818-1,804
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,863-1,868
R2     1,874
R3     1,880-1,890

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.842

Buy
20-DMA   1796.72 Buy
50-DMA  

1787.84

Buy
100-DMA   1790.61 Buy
200-DMA   1795.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.413 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.203 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$25.39/oz and low of US$24.75/oz settled up by 0.926% at US$24.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.55-21.90, targeting 24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 25.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-23.75
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.10-25.50
R2     25.80
R3     26.20-26.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$80.64/bbl, intraday low of US$78.94/bbl and settled down by 0.270% to close at US$79.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.90-83.10 with stop loss at 83.10; targeting 79.90-79.00-78.40-77.60 and 76.90-76.00. Buy above 79.00-76.00 with risk daily closing below 76.00 and targeting 80.50-81.40 and 81.90-83.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     79.00-78.05
S2     77.60
S3     76.90-76.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.90-80.50
R2     81.40
R3     81.90-83.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.374 Sell
20-DMA   80.54 Sell
50-DMA   78.09 Buy
100-DMA   74.50 Buy
200-DMA   68.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1308/EUR, high of US$1.1384/EUR and settled the day down by 0.416% to close at US$1.1319/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1290-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1355-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1355-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1290-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1290-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1170-1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1355-1.1385
R2     1.1485-1.1510
R3     1.1485-1.1510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   25.697 Buy
20-DMA   1.1502 Sell
50-DMA   1.1597 Sell
100-DMA   1.1696 Sell
200-DMA   1.1771 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.6850 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3404/GBP, high of US$1.3470/GBP and settled the day down by 0.136% to close at US$1.3427/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3390-1.3150 with targets 1.3455-1.3510 and 1.3560-1.3680 with stop loss closing below 1.3100. Sell in between 1.3450-1.3680 with targets at 1.3350-1.3310 and 1.3265-1.3200-1.3150 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3390-1.3350
S2     1.3265-1.3190
S3     1.3265-1.3190

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3460-1.3490
R2     1.3530
R3     1.3605-1.3550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.233

Buy
20-DMA   1.3598 Buy
50-DMA   1.3665 Buy
100-DMA   1.3723 Buy
200-DMA   1.3696 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   18.766 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.06/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.84/USD and settled the day up 0.611% at JPY114.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.90-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.30-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.70-114.30
S2     113.90
S3     113.45-112.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.00-¬115.50
R2     115.90
R3     116.50-117.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.207 Buy
20-DMA   113.47 Sell
50-DMA   112.46 Sell
100-DMA   111.37 Sell
200-DMA   110.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   0.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

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