AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, and is poised to post a second week of gains against the euro. The focus is now on when central banks will begin hiking interest rates in response to rising inflation. Several central bankers, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England economist Huw Pill and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Christopher Waller, Richard Clarida, and Mary Daly, will speak later in the day. Bets are also rising on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand handing down a hawkish monetary policy that will hike the interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) when it meets next week. The dollar edged back from a 16-month high on Thursday as traders assessed whether the U.S. currency's recent surge, fueled by diverging central bank tightening expectations amid surging inflation around the globe, had gone too far. Recent U.S. data showed inflation in October running at its hottest since 1990, while retail sales numbers topped forecasts, leading the market to price in earlier rate hikes by the Federal Reserve than had been anticipated, driving strength in the greenback.
  • The dollar edged lower Thursday, consolidating just below its 16-month high, while the Turkish lira slumps ahead of the country’s latest central bank meeting. The dollar has benefited in recent weeks from the market’s assessment that the Federal Reserve will be quicker to move against the rising inflation levels than many of its advanced economy contemporaries, a perception reinforced in the last month by strong labor market and retail sales data. By contrast, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has made it clear this week that early interest rate hikes are not on her agenda, a stance not exactly challenged by figures showing European car sales down 30% on the year in October, and the Bank of Japan is expected to keep adding stimulus to its beleaguered economy, accommodating a major fiscal stimulus package due to be unveiled by Prime Minister Kishida. The possible exception, among G7 central banks, is the Bank of England after a spike in Britain's October inflation piled pressure on it to hike rates at its meeting next month. The main economic data release Thursday will be the weekly initial jobless claims number, which is expected to show 260,000 claimants last week, a drop from 267,000 the previous week, and a fresh post-pandemic low.
  • Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia, but was set for its first weekly decline in three as central banks are expected to hike interest rates quicker than expected to curb rising inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve is now contemplating earlier interest rate hikes as inflation continues to rise and the economic recovery from COVID-19 continues. Data from the previous week also indicated that inflation rose to its highest level in 30 years in October. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, one of the central bank’s dovish policymakers, said on Thursday that he was “open-minded” to tweak monetary policy in 2022 if inflation continues to remain high. An interest rate hike in 2022 could be appropriate if high inflation continues, Evans added, despite his expectations to the contrary. Meanwhile, Thursday’s data showed that 268,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the U.S. throughout the week. Although close to pre-COVID levels, the number was higher than the 260,000 figure in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. A shortage of workers continues to be an obstacle to faster job growth. In Asia Pacific, Japan is preparing to unveil a record $490 billion spending package that aims to reduce the economic impact from COVID-19. China imported more gold from Switzerland in October, the highest level since June 2018, Swiss customs data showed. The data also showed that shipments of gold to India fell slightly from September.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday, after wild swings the day before, on investor concerns that potential coordinated releases by the world's major economies of their official crude reserves to try to lower prices may have less of an impact than expected. The market gyrations on Thursday followed a Reuters report that the United States had asked China, Japan and other big buyers to join a release of crude stocks from Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). The Biden administration's push for a coordinated release of oil stockpiles has been seen as a signal to the OPEC+ production group that it should raise output to address concerns of high fuel prices in the world's biggest economies, starting with the United States, China and Japan. Brent has surged almost 60% this year, recently driven a wider energy crunch as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic at the same time the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and allies, known as OPEC+, has only gradually raised output. The market structure for Brent remains backwardated, which is when prompt prices are higher than later-dated futures. That typically indicates that oil demand is higher than supply and is considered bullish for prices. However, the backwardation has decreased amid the swings over the last two sessions, a sign the tightness in the market is easing. The price difference between the front-month Brent crude contract and the one for six months later was $4.30 a barrel, down from an eight-year high of $6.30 earlier this month. Physical crude markets also showed some easing, traders said. OPEC has maintained what analysts say is unprecedented restraint on production, even as prices have rebounded from the depths of the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic. Data showing Saudi Arabia's oil exports hit an eight-month high in September, rising for a straight fifth month, also helped keep prices in check.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,868 1,874 1,880-1,890
Silver-XAG 25.10-25.50 25.80 26.20-26.50
Crude Oil 79.10-79.90 80.90 81.30-81.90
EURO/USD 1.1360-1.1385 1.1420 1.1485-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3540-1.3605 1.3685 1.3750-1.3790
USD/JPY 114.70-115.00 ¬115.50 115.90-116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,852-1,840 1,834 1,818-1,804
Silver-XAG 24.55-23.75 23.20 22.60-22.20
Crude Oil 78.05--77.60 76.90 76.00-74.90
EURO/USD 1.1310-1.1250 1.1200 1.1170-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.3490-1.3460 1.3390 1.3350-1.3310
USD/JPY 114.30-113.90 113.45 112.80-112.20

Intra-Day Strategy (19th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1870.85/oz and low of US$1855.01/oz. Gold down 0.451% at US$1858.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1852-1819 with risk below 1819, targeting 1863-1874-1880 and 1890-1904. Sell in between 1868-1889 keeping stop loss closing above 1889, targeting 1852-1840-1834 and 1818-1810-1804.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,852-1,840
S2     1,834
S3     1,818-1,804
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,868
R2     1,874
R3     1,880-1,890

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.842

Buy
20-DMA   1796.72 Buy
50-DMA  

1787.84

Buy
100-DMA   1790.61 Buy
200-DMA   1795.11 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.413 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.203 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$25.14/oz and low of US$24.66/oz settled down by 1.066% at US$24.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.55-21.90, targeting 24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 25.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-23.75
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.10-25.50
R2     25.80
R3     26.20-26.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$79.62/bbl, intraday low of US$76.86/bbl and settled down by 0.270% to close at US$77.36/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.10-81.90 with stop loss at 81.90; targeting 78.05-77.60-76.90 and 76.00-74.90-74.60. Buy above 78.05-74.90 with risk daily closing below 74.90 and targeting 76.90-77.60-78.05 and 79.00-79.90-80.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.05--77.60
S2     76.90
S3     76.00-74.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.10-79.90
R2     80.90
R3     81.30-81.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.374 Sell
20-DMA   80.54 Sell
50-DMA   78.09 Buy
100-DMA   74.50 Buy
200-DMA   68.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1313/EUR, high of US$1.1373/EUR and settled the day up by 0.404% to close at US$1.1364/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1310-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1360-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1355-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1310-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1170-1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1360-1.1385
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1485-1.1510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1477 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1683 Sell
200-DMA   1.1767 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3462/GBP, high of US$1.3512/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0630% to close at US$1.3488/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3490-1.3310 with targets 1.3560-1.3605-1.3685 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3540-1.3790 with targets at 1.3490-1.3390-1.3350 and 1.3310-1.3265-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3490-1.3460
S2     1.3390
S3     1.3350-1.3310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3540-1.3605
R2     1.3685
R3     1.3750-1.3790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3539 Buy
50-DMA   1.3625 Buy
100-DMA   1.3696 Buy
200-DMA   1.3684 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY113.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.48/USD and settled the day up 0.259% at JPY114.24/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.90-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.70-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.30-113.90
S2     113.45
S3     112.80-112.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.70-115.00
R2     ¬115.50
R3     115.90-116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.207 Buy
20-DMA   113.47 Sell
50-DMA   112.46 Sell
100-DMA   111.37 Sell
200-DMA   110.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   0.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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