AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded higher Monday, testing the highs of last week as the euro suffered from growing anxiety over the impact of surging Covid-19 infections in Europe. The dollar received a boost on Friday after comments by Federal Reserve officials Richard Clarida and Christopher Waller pointed to the potential of a faster pace of stimulus tapering amid a robust recovery and heated inflation. The foreign exchange market has become fixated on the Fed’s timetable for phasing out its bond purchases as a shorter phase-out raises the possibility of earlier interest rate increases. Currently the market is priced for the U.S. central bank to start hiking rates by the middle of next year. The Fed will publish the minutes of its November meeting, in which policymakers decided the U.S. economy was strong enough to start scaling back its pandemic-era asset purchase program, on Wednesday. The same day sees a massive data dump, including the core PCE price index, rumored to be the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, while a lot of attention will be on whether the White House decides to keep incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell in place for another term or promote current Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Europe has again become the epicentre of the pandemic, with Germany, Europe's largest economy, refusing to rule out the possibility of another lockdown on Friday, and riots breaking out in Belgium and the Netherlands over the introduction of more restrictions.
  • The safe-haven U.S. dollar traded close to a 16-month high to the euro on Monday on growing anxiety over the impact of surging COVID-19 infections in Europe, with Austria reimposing a full lockdown and Germany considering following suit. The greenback was near its strongest since early October against the riskier Australian and Canadian dollars, with the commodity-linked currencies also pressured by a slump in crude oil. The dollar got additional support from bullish comments by Federal Reserve officials Richard Clarida and Christopher Waller on Friday who suggested a faster pace of stimulus tapering may be appropriate amid a quickening recovery and heated inflation. A more rapid end to tapering raises the possibility of earlier interest rate increases too. Currently the market is priced for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to start hiking rates by the middle of next year. Europe has again become the epicentre of the pandemic, accounting for half of global cases and deaths. A fourth wave of infections has plunged Germany, Europe's largest economy, into a national emergency, Health Minister Jens Spahn said, warning that vaccinations alone will not cut case numbers. Austria becomes the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full COVID-19 lockdown from Monday. Worries that a slowdown in Europe could hit energy demand dented crude oil, which was also in retreat over the prospect of a U.S.-led release of emergency stockpiles. The minutes of the FOMC's meeting at the start of this month, when policymakers announced a start to tapering, are due Wednesday and may provide more insight on how many Fed officials are considering faster tapering or earlier rate increases. U.S. President Joe Biden is also likely to announce his nominee for Fed chair this week, after interviewing incumbent Jerome Powell and Fed governor Lael Brainard.
  • Oil prices came off seven-week lows on Monday but remained under pressure after Japan said it was weighing releasing oil reserves and as the COVID-19 situation in Europe worsened, raising concerns about both oversupply and weak demand. The market is in a state of flux as strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) releases are not fully priced in yet, said an oil trader in Singapore. WTI and Brent prices hit their lowest since Oct. 1 earlier in the session. They slumped around 3% on Friday, declining for the fourth straight week for the first time since March 2020. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signalled on Saturday he was ready to help combat soaring oil prices following a request from the United States to release oil from its emergency stockpile, in an unprecedented move. Tokyo is exploring ways to bypass a law which permits the release of oil reserves only in cases of supply shortage or natural disasters. The White House on Friday pressed the OPEC producer group again to maintain adequate global supply, days after U.S. discussions with some of the world's biggest economies over potentially releasing oil from strategic reserves to quell high energy prices. The combined SPR release could be 100 million to 120 million barrels or even higher, Citi analysts said in a note dated Nov. 19. This includes 45 million to 60 million barrels from the United States, about 30 million barrels from China, 5 million barrels from India and 10 million barrels each from Japan and South Korea, the bank estimated. Further weighing on prices was possible renewed lockdowns in Europe as COVID-19 cases surged again. Germany warned on Friday it may need to move to a full lockdown after Austria said it would reimpose strict measures to tackle rising infections The worsening Europe COVID-19 situation and profit-taking among investors towards year-end added to uncertainties in the market, the trader said. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Nov. 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. Investors were also watching developments in the Middle East after Saudi state media reported early on Monday the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen said it detected indications of an imminent danger to navigation and global trade south of the Red Sea.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,852-1,868 1,874 1,880-1,890
Silver-XAG 25.10-25.50 25.80 26.20-26.50
Crude Oil 76.00-76.90 77.60 78.05-79.10
EURO/USD 1.1310-1.1360 1.1385 1.1420-1.1485
GBP/USD 1.3540-1.3490 1.3605 1.3685-1.3750
USD/JPY 114.70-115.00 115.50 115.90-116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,840 1,834 1,818-1,804
Silver-XAG 24.55-23.75 23.20 22.60-22.20
Crude Oil 75.50-74.65 73.90 73.50-73.00
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1200 1.1170 1.1120-1.050
GBP/USD 1.3420 1.3390 1.3350-1.3310
USD/JPY 113.90 113.45 112.80-112.20

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1865.70/oz and low of US$1842.87/oz. Gold down 0.696% at US$1845.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1840-1819 with risk below 1819, targeting 1852-1863-1874 and 1880-1890. Sell in between 1852-1889 keeping stop loss closing above 1889, targeting 1840-1834 and 1818-1810-1804.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,840
S2     1,834
S3     1,818-1,804
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,852-1,868
R2     1,874
R3     1,880-1,890

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.7997

Buy
20-DMA   1830.22 Buy
50-DMA  

1807.29

Buy
100-DMA   1800.78 Buy
200-DMA   1800.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   19.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.96/oz and low of US$24.66/oz settled down by 0.697% at US$24.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.55-21.90, targeting 24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 25.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.55-23.75
S2     23.20
S3     22.60-22.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     25.10-25.50
R2     25.80
R3     26.20-26.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$79.17/bbl, intraday low of US$74.97/bbl and settled down by 0.270% to close at US$75.52/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.00-79.10 with stop loss at 79.90; targeting 75.50-74.65-73.90 and 73.50-73.00. Buy above 75.50-73.00 with risk daily closing below 73.00 and targeting 76.00-76.90-77.60 and 78.05-79.00-79.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     75.50-74.65
S2     73.90
S3     73.50-73.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     76.00-76.90
R2     77.60
R3     78.05-79.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.374 Sell
20-DMA   80.54 Sell
50-DMA   78.09 Buy
100-DMA   74.50 Buy
200-DMA   68.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1313/EUR, high of US$1.1373/EUR and settled the day up by 0.404% to close at US$1.1364/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1310-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1360-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1355-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250-1.1200
S2     1.1170
S3     1.1120-1.050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1310-1.1360
R2     1.1385
R3     1.1420-1.1485

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1477 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1683 Sell
200-DMA   1.1767 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3406/GBP, high of US$1.3512/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0630% to close at US$1.34808/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3410-1.3310 with targets 1.3540-1.3605-1.3685 and 1.3750-1.3790 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3540-1.3790 with targets at 1.3490-1.3390-1.3350 and 1.3310-1.3265-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3420
S2     1.3390
S3     1.3350-1.3310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3540-1.3490
R2     1.3605
R3     1.3685-1.3750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3539 Buy
50-DMA   1.3625 Buy
100-DMA   1.3696 Buy
200-DMA   1.3684 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY113.58/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.53/USD and settled the day up 0.259% at JPY113.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.90-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.70-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.90
S2     113.45
S3     112.80-112.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     114.70-115.00
R2     115.50
R3     115.90-116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.207 Buy
20-DMA   113.47 Sell
50-DMA   112.46 Sell
100-DMA   111.37 Sell
200-DMA   110.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   0.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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