AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded largely flat Wednesday, taking a break after recent strong gains ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting that sanctioned the tapering of the central bank’s emergency bond-buying program. The dollar has been in demand of late, climbing to its highest levels in 2021, with traders betting that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates sooner than expected, and certainty before the majority of its major peers, in response to surging inflationary pressures. It also received a boost on Tuesday with the nomination of Jerome Powell to continue heading up the central bank as he is widely perceived as being more likely to respond more quickly to the elevated prices than Lael Brainard, who was also in the running for the role. Powell’s nomination “generated another round of USD buying, as the risk of the more dovish Lael Brainard taking over was priced out (she was, however, named Vice Chair) and markets reinforced their views around a first Fed hike by mid-2022,” said analysts at ING in a note. Attention Wednesday will now turn to a number of economic data releases, ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, including the latest third-quarter GDP reading, October durable goods and the weekly initial jobless claims. Most eyes, however, will be on the minutes from the November Fed meeting, the gathering that approved the easing back of the central bank’s bond-buying program started at the beginning of the pandemic. Investors will be looking for clues on whether the pace of this tapering could accelerate, potentially bringing forward the date of the first interest rate hike. The release of personal consumer expenditures price indices at 10 AM ET will be interpreted in this light. Investors had expected a bigger hike and a higher long-term cash rate projection from the central bank, prompting the kiwi to drop sharply. Investors had expected a bigger hike and long-term cash rate projection from the central bank, and interest rate swaps reversed sharply afterward. The greenback hit its highest levels in 2021, with bets increasing that the Fed will hike interest rates sooner than expected in response to continuous inflationary pressures. Powell is also perceived to respond sooner and harder to inflation than Lael Brainard, who was also in the running to head the U.S. central bank. The U.S. will release data, including the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, GDP, and initial jobless claims, on Wednesday ahead of a holiday on Thursday.
  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, remaining near a four-and-a-half-year high against the yen. Incumbent U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appointment to a second term increased bets that the U.S. will hike interest rates quicker than expected. Investors also continued to digest U.S. President Joe Biden’s choice of Powell to head the Fed over Lael Brainard. Considered the more dovish of the pair, Brainard was promoted to Fed vice-chair. Powell’s renomination reinforced market expectations of interest rate hikes in 2022 when the Fed finishes its asset tapering program. Market bets on the pace of central banks’ asset tapering and interest rate hikes have driven currency markets recently. The U.S. central bank may need to speed up the removal of monetary stimulus in response to strong employment gains and surging inflation, which could lead to a quicker-than-expected interest rate hike, said Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic. The number of COVID-19 cases in the continent is rising, with Austria under a full lockdown since Monday and Germany considering tighter restrictive measures. The euro was at $1.124, around a 16-month low. It has fallen 2.8% so far in November, also hurt by the European Central Bank’s recent dovish tone.
  • Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous day, as investors remained sceptical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led release of oil from strategic reserves and turned their focus to the next step by oil producers. The United States said on Tuesday it would release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain, to try to cool prices after OPEC+ producers repeatedly ignored calls for more crude. Japan will release "a few hundred thousand kilolitres" of oil from its national reserve, but the timing of the sale has not been decided, industry minister Koichi Hagiuda said on Wednesday. The Nikkei newspaper reported Japan will hold auctions for about 4.2 million barrels of oil out of its national stockpile by the end of this year. Analysts said the effect on prices of the coordinated release was likely to be short-lived after years of declining investment and a strong global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The coordinated release may add about 70 million to 80 million barrels of crude supply, smaller than the more-than-100 million barrels the market has been pricing in, analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said. All eyes are on how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their allies, together called OPEC+, will react to the joint reserve release when they meet on Dec. 2 to discuss policy. The United Arab Emirates energy minister said on Tuesday he saw no logic in the Gulf OPEC producer supplying more oil to global markets when all indicators pointed to a supply surplus in the first quarter of next year. Meanwhile, U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose last week while distillate inventories fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 19, against an analyst expectation of a decline by about 500,000 barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,808 1,818 1,834-1,840
Silver-XAG 24.10-24.80 25.10 25.50-25.80
Crude Oil 79.10-79.60 80.65 81.40-82.00
EURO/USD 1.1310-1.1360 1.1420-1.1485 1.1420-1.1485
GBP/USD 1.3390-1.3420 1.3490 1.3540-1.3605
USD/JPY 115.90-116.50 115.50 115.90-116.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,789 1,780 1,771-1,765
Silver-XAG 23.50-23.20 22.60 22.20-21.50
Crude Oil 78.05-77.60 76.00-75.50 76.00-75.50
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1200 1.1170 1.1120-1.050
GBP/USD 1.3350 1.3310 1.3270-1.3200
USD/JPY 114.50-113.90 113.45 112.80-112.20

Intra-Day Strategy (24th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1812.34/oz and low of US$1781.88/oz. Gold down 0.888% at US$1788.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1789-1765 with risk below 1765, targeting 1800-1808-1818 and 1834-1840-1852. Sell in between 1800-1852 keeping stop loss closing above 1852, targeting 1789-1780 and 1771-1765.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,789
S2     1,780
S3     1,771-1,765
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,800-1,808
R2     1,818
R3     1,834-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.7997

Buy
20-DMA   1830.22 Buy
50-DMA  

1807.29

Buy
100-DMA   1800.78 Buy
200-DMA   1800.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.94021.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   19.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$23.66/oz and low of US$23.46/oz settled down by 2.220% at US$23.59/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.90, targeting 24.05-24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.50-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.20-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.10-24.80
R2     25.10
R3     25.50-25.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$78.67/bbl, intraday low of US$75.13/bbl and settled down by 2.700% to close at US$78.31/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.10-82.00 with stop loss at 82.00; targeting 78.05-77.60-76.90 and 75.50-74.65-73.90. Buy above 75.50-73.00 with risk daily closing below 73.00 and targeting 76.00-76.90-77.60 and 78.05-79.00-79.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.05-77.60
S2     76.00-75.50
S3     76.00-75.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.10-79.60
R2     80.65
R3     81.40-82.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.414 Sell
20-DMA   79.10 Sell
50-DMA   77.92 Buy
100-DMA   74.81 Buy
200-DMA   69.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1225/EUR, high of US$1.1274/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0952% to close at US$1.1247/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1360-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1310-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1200
S2     1.1170
S3     1.1120-1.050

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1310-1.1360
R2     1.1420-1.1485
R3     1.1420-1.1485

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1477 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1683 Sell
200-DMA   1.1767 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3341/GBP, high of US$1.3408/GBP and settled the day down by 0.139% to close at US$1.3374/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3200 with targets 1.3420-1.3490-1.3540 and 1.3605-1.36851.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3420-1.3685 with targets at 1.3390-1.3350 and 1.3310-1.3265-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3350
S2     1.3310
S3     1.3270-1.3200

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3390-1.3420
R2     1.3490
R3     1.3540-1.3605

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3539 Buy
50-DMA   1.3625 Buy
100-DMA   1.3696 Buy
200-DMA   1.3684 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.18/USD and settled the day up 0.210% at JPY115.12/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 114.50-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.90-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.50-113.90
S2     113.45
S3     112.80-112.20

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.90-116.50
R2     115.50
R3     115.90-116.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.207 Buy
20-DMA   113.47 Sell
50-DMA   112.46 Sell
100-DMA   111.37 Sell
200-DMA   110.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   0.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0131 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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