AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar traded near its highest in over a year to the euro and close to a five-year peak against the yen as a hawkish tilt by Federal Reserve policymakers, buoyed by solid U.S. data, contrasted with more dovish monetary outlooks in Europe and Japan. The index has climbed 2.77% this month as traders bet that heated inflation would force earlier interest rate hikes than Fed officials had signalled. The market is fully priced for a first quarter point hike by June, with strong odds it could be delivered as soon as May. Minutes of the central bank's Nov. 2-3 policy meeting showed on Wednesday that various policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the taper of their bond-buying programme if high inflation held, and move more quickly to raise interest rates. Also overnight, readings on the labour market and consumer spending outstripped economists' estimates, while inflation continued to heat up. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance released the same day that she could see a case being made to speed up the Fed's tapering of its bond purchases. While the U.S. calendar is mostly empty on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, minutes from the European Central Bank's Oct. 28 meeting are due for release. In a news conference after the monetary authority left policy unchanged at that meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said officials had discussed "inflation, inflation, inflation," but after "a lot of soul-searching" had stuck to the view that inflationary forces will prove transitory. Lagarde gives a speech at an ECB legal conference later on Thursday, at which board members Frank Elderson and Edouard Fernandez-Bollo will also participate. Investors remain focused on whether or not the Bank of England will raise rates on Dec. 16. The BOE wrong-footed many investors when it kept policy steady at record lows at the start of the month, following comments from its governor Andrew Bailey in October that policymakers "will have to act" to head off inflation.
  • The dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia, but trading near a five-year high against the yen. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in the minutes from its latest meeting contrasted with the dovish approach taken by its Japanese counterpart. The Fed indicated that it could pick up the pace on its asset tapering program, and hike interest rates quicker than expected if high inflation persists, in its minutes released on Wednesday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also said on Wednesday that she could see a case being made to speed up asset tapering. With U.S. markets closed for a holiday on Thursday, the focus is now on the minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB)’s latest meeting. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting, due later in the day. ECB president Christine Lagarde will also give a speech at an ECB legal conference on the same day, and board members Frank Elderson and Edouard Fernandez-Bollo will also participate in the conference. Investors are also looking ahead to whether the Bank of England (BOE) will raise interest rates in its next policy decision on Dec. 16. Investors were surprised when the central bank kept rates steady at its last policy decision earlier in the month, and look to comments from BOE governor Andrew Bailey at Cambridge University later in the day for clues. Fed officials have contributed to the more hawkish view that the U.S. central bank may act sooner to try to stem rising price pressures if inflation doesn’t moderate, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to remain more dovish as growth in the region lags. Various Fed policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the elimination of their bond-buying program if high inflation held and move more quickly to raise interest rates, minutes of the bank's last policy meeting released on Wednesday showed. The single currency was hurt by data on Wednesday showing German business morale deteriorated for the fifth month running in November as supply bottlenecks in manufacturing and a spike in coronavirus infections clouded the growth outlook for Europe's largest economy. The dollar reached an almost five-year high of 115.50 against the Japanese yen after data showed that U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in October, while price pressures also heated up during the month. Other data on Wednesday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since 1969 last week, while gross domestic product data confirmed that growth slowed sharply in the third quarter.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Thursday morning in Asia as investors watch how major producers will react to emergency crude releases by major consumer nations to cool the market. All eyes are now on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, as it meets next week to discuss oil demand and supply. OPEC+ has been adding 400,000 barrels per day of supply each month, undoing the major output reductions from last year when the COVID-19 pandemic slowed demand. Three sources told Reuters that the cartel is not discussing pausing its oil output increases, despite the coordinated release. Investors are also watching out if China will release oil from its reserves as planned. Meanwhile, Wednesday's U.S. crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a build of 1.017 million barrels for the week ended November 19. Forecasts prepared by investing.com predicted a draw of 481,000 barrels, while a draw of 2.101 million barrels was reported during the previous week. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute from the day before showed a build of 2.307 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,808 1,818 1,834-1,840
Silver-XAG 24.10-24.80 25.10 25.50-25.80
Crude Oil 79.10-79.60 80.65 81.40-82.00
EURO/USD 1.1310-1.1360 1.1385 1.1420-1.1485
GBP/USD 1.3390-1.3420 1.3540-1.3605 1.3540-1.3605
USD/JPY ¬115.50-115.90 116.50 117.00-117.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,789-1,780 1,771 1,765-1,758
Silver-XAG 23.50-23.20 22.60 22.20-21.50
Crude Oil 78.05-77.60 76.90 76.00-75.50
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1170 1.1120 1.1050-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.3350-1.3310 1.3270 1.3200-1.3150
USD/JPY 115.00-114.50 113.90 113.45-112.80

Intra-Day Strategy (25th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1796.33/oz and low of US$1778.44/oz. Gold down 0.888% at US$1788.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1789-1765 with risk below 1765, targeting 1800-1808-1818 and 1834-1840-1852. Sell in between 1800-1852 keeping stop loss closing above 1852, targeting 1789-1780 and 1771-1765.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,789-1,780
S2     1,771
S3     1,765-1,758
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,800-1,808
R2     1,818
R3     1,834-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.7997

Buy
20-DMA   1830.22 Buy
50-DMA  

1807.29

Buy
100-DMA   1800.78 Buy
200-DMA   1800.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   19.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$23.67/oz and low of US$23.38/oz settled down by 0.410% at US$23.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.90, targeting 24.05-24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.50-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.20-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.10-24.80
R2     25.10
R3     25.50-25.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$78.67/bbl, intraday low of US$75.13/bbl and settled down by 2.700% to close at US$78.31/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.10-82.00 with stop loss at 82.00; targeting 78.05-77.60-76.90 and 75.50-74.65-73.90. Buy above 75.50-73.00 with risk daily closing below 73.00 and targeting 76.00-76.90-77.60 and 78.05-79.00-79.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.05-77.60
S2     76.90
S3     76.00-75.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.10-79.60
R2     80.65
R3     81.40-82.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.414 Sell
20-DMA   79.10 Sell
50-DMA   77.92 Buy
100-DMA   74.81 Buy
200-DMA   69.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1225/EUR, high of US$1.1254/EUR and settled the day down by 0.463% to close at US$1.1194/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1360-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1310-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1170
S2     1.1120
S3     1.1050-1.0900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1310-1.1360
R2     1.1385
R3     1.1420-1.1485

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1477 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1683 Sell
200-DMA   1.1767 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3389/GBP, high of US$1.3389/GBP and settled the day down by 0.379% to close at US$1.3323/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3200 with targets 1.3420-1.3490-1.3540 and 1.3605-1.36851.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3420-1.3685 with targets at 1.3390-1.3350 and 1.3310-1.3265-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3350-1.3310
S2     1.3270
S3     1.3200-1.3150

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3390-1.3420
R2     1.3540-1.3605
R3     1.3540-1.3605

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3539 Buy
50-DMA   1.3625 Buy
100-DMA   1.3696 Buy
200-DMA   1.3684 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.81/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.51/USD and settled the day up 0.288% at JPY115.41/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 115.00-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 115.50-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.00-114.50
S2     113.90
S3     113.45-112.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     ¬115.50-115.90
R2     116.50
R3     117.00-117.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.340 Buy
20-DMA   114.25 Sell
50-DMA   113.18 Sell
100-DMA   111.96 Sell
200-DMA   110.46 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1202 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING