AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia. But losses were minimized as growing concerns about a newly discovered COVID-19 variant dampened investors’ risk appetite. In Europe, a rising number of COVID-19 cases prompted Germany to consider following neighbor Austria’s lead and re-impose a lockdown. Meanwhile, an increasingly hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve has increased bets of an interest rate hike by mid-2022, while counterparts in Europe and Japan stick to more dovish stances. Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his commitment to massive monetary stimulus last week, while the minutes from the European Central Bank's October meeting, released on Thursday, signaled continued stimulus and a cautious approach to any policy changes. On the flip side, 114 should provide a floor for the currency pair in the near term, "unless the world really changes for the worse," he added. The dollar slipped slightly on Thursday but was still close to its highest since July 2020 against the euro, having strengthened due to market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner than other major central banks. Minutes from the Fed's Nov. 2-3 meeting boosted the dollar on Wednesday as they indicated the Fed had become more concerned about rising inflation. Various policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the taper of their bond-buying programme if high inflation held and move more quickly to raise interest rates. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. jobless claims were at a 52-year low, consumer spending increased more than expected in October and inflation was rising. But on Thursday the dollar's upward trend - which has seen it gain around 2.8% this month - paused slightly, with the dollar index down 0.1% at 96.782 at 1535 GMT, compared to the 16-month high of 96.938 it reached late on Wednesday. Versus the Japanese yen, the dollar was just below a five year peak. A surge in coronavirus infections in Germany and unusually high inflation rates are weighing on consumer morale in Europe's largest economy, a survey showed on Thursday. Sweden's central bank left monetary policy unchanged, arguing that inflation would ease next year. It pencilled in its first post-pandemic rate hike for the end of 2024.
  • Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia, set for its worst week in five months over increasing bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will accelerate asset tapering and hike interest rates quicker than expected to curb rising inflation. The Fed is likely to double the pace at which it tapers its monthly bond purchases from January 2021 to $30 billion, and wind down its asset tapering scheme by mid-March 2022, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) released the minutes from its latest meeting. The central bank is also coming under pressure from bankers to lend more of its inventory of German government bonds, a move that would avert a market squeeze but undo some of EBC’s own stimulus efforts. COVID-19 cases are surging in the continent, with Germany contemplating re-imposing a lockdown after neighboring Austria went into a full lockdown earlier in the week. Elsewhere in Asia Pacific, Japan’s Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI) grew 0.3% year-on-year, while the Tokyo Ex Food and Energy CPI recorded 0% growth month-on-month, in November. In Australia, retail sales grew a better-than-expected 4.9% month-on-month in October. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped to the highest since June 2018 in October, with buyers stocking up on the safe-haven metal to cushion against inflation. In other precious metals, silver inched down 0.1% and platinum fell 0.6%, while palladium was up 0.4%.
  • Oil was down Friday morning in Asia, sliding more than 1% over concerns that a U.S.-led coordinated release of crude reserves among major consumers could lead to a global supply surplus in the first quarter of 2022. The release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, announced by U.S. President Joe Biden earlier in the week, will see millions of barrels of oil released in coordination with other key consuming nations, including China, India, and Japan. The release will likely lead to a swell in supplies over the coming months, according to the findings of the Economic Commission Board (ECB) that advises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), an OPEC source told Reuters. The board also expects a 400,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) surplus in December 2021, expanding to 2.3 million bpd in January 2022 and 3.7 million bpd in February if consumer nations go ahead with the release, the source added. Forecasts of rising surplus oil are clouding the outlook of the next OPEC and allies (OPEC+) meeting on Dec. 2. The cartel will decide whether it will continue raising output by 400,000 bpd in January. However, both Brent and WTI contracts are headed towards their first weekly gain in nearly a month. The overall volume of the crude reserve release, around 70 million to 80 million barrels, was smaller than expected.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,808 1,818 1,834-1,840
Silver-XAG 24.10-24.80 25.10 25.50-25.80
Crude Oil 75.50-76.00 76.90 77.60-78.05
EURO/USD 1.1310-1.1360 1.1385 1.1420-1.1485
GBP/USD 1.3390-1.3420 1.3490 1.3540-1.3605
USD/JPY ¬115.00-115.90 116.50 117.00-117.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,789-1,780 1,771 1,765-1,758
Silver-XAG 23.50-23.20 22.60 22.20-21.50
Crude Oil 75.35-74.90 74.00 73.50-72.90
EURO/USD 1.1120 1.1120 1.1050-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3270 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100
USD/JPY 114.50-113.90 113.45 112.80-112.10

Intra-Day Strategy (26th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1794.98/oz and low of US$1785.82/oz. Gold up 0.0027% at US$1788.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1789-1765 with risk below 1765, targeting 1800-1808-1818 and 1834-1840-1852. Sell in between 1800-1852 keeping stop loss closing above 1852, targeting 1789-1780 and 1771-1765.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,789-1,780
S2     1,771
S3     1,765-1,758
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,800-1,808
R2     1,818
R3     1,834-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.7997

Buy
20-DMA   1830.22 Buy
50-DMA  

1807.29

Buy
100-DMA   1800.78 Buy
200-DMA   1800.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   19.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$23.67/oz and low of US$23.38/oz settled down by 0.410% at US$23.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.90, targeting 24.05-24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.50-23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.20-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.10-24.80
R2     25.10
R3     25.50-25.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.44/bbl, intraday low of US$77.57/bbl and settled down by 0.705% to close at US$78.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.10-82.00 with stop loss at 82.00; targeting 78.05-77.60-76.90 and 75.50-74.65-73.90. Buy above 75.50-73.00 with risk daily closing below 73.00 and targeting 76.00-76.90-77.60 and 78.05-79.00-79.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     75.35-74.90
S2     74.00
S3     73.50-72.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     75.50-76.00
R2     76.90
R3     77.60-78.05

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.414 Sell
20-DMA   77.92 Sell
50-DMA   74.81 Buy
100-DMA   74.81 Buy
200-DMA   69.11 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.485 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1189/EUR, high of US$1.1228/EUR and settled the day up by 0.1188% to close at US$1.1205/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1360-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1310-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1120
S2     1.1120
S3     1.1050-1.0900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1310-1.1360
R2     1.1385
R3     1.1420-1.1485

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1477 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1683 Sell
200-DMA   1.1767 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3389/GBP, high of US$1.3389/GBP and settled the day down by 0.379% to close at US$1.3323/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3200 with targets 1.3420-1.3490-1.3540 and 1.3605-1.36851.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3420-1.3685 with targets at 1.3390-1.3350 and 1.3310-1.3265-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3300-1.3270
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3150-1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3390-1.3420
R2     1.3490
R3     1.3540-1.3605

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3625 Buy
50-DMA   1.3625 Buy
100-DMA   1.3696 Buy
200-DMA   1.3684 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY115.45/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.45/USD and settled the day down 0.0857% at JPY115.31/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 115.00-110.50 with targets of 114.20-114.90 and 115.60-116.00-116.90 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 115.50-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.50-113.00-112.50 and 111.70-110.50-109.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.50-113.90
S2     113.45
S3     112.80-112.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     ¬115.00-115.90
R2     116.50
R3     117.00-117.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.340 Buy
20-DMA   114.25 Sell
50-DMA   113.18 Sell
100-DMA   111.96 Sell
200-DMA   110.46 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1202 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING