AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar traded higher Monday, boosted by higher U.S. Treasury yields as traders considered Friday’s sharp moves on the discovery of the omicron coronavirus variant as overdone. The World Health Organization said on Sunday that it is not yet clear if the new omicron coronavirus variant is more transmissible compared to other variants or if it causes more severe disease. Health experts from South Africa, where the new variant was first detected, have indicated that the symptoms from the omicron variant have been mild so far, although they also pointed out that their population is relatively young, and that the number of 'breakthrough' infections of vaccinated people was significant. Vaccine makers have indicated that they will be able to reformulate their drugs in pretty short order, and this has prompted traders to unwind a lot of Friday’s sharp moves, which were all the sharper for taking place on a day when liquidity was thin due to the U.S. holiday weekend. Aside from the news surrounding the omicron variant, “the general environment in FX remains quite supportive for the dollar, as the FOMC minutes and a bunch of good data kept market speculation on faster tapering and earlier tightening alive,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “On top of this, the worsening contagion situation in Europe and risk of fresh containment measures are generating further divergence in policy expectations between the ECB and Fed.” Several officials from the European Central Bank, including President Christine Lagarde, have speaking duties on Monday, and investors will be looking for clues on the central bank’s thinking ahead of its meeting on Dec. 16. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said the bank expects inflation to peak this month. Preliminary German inflation data for November are due in the course of the morning. ECB officials are due to receive new forecasts that are likely to show inflation climbing at a higher rate than expected earlier, but they will also have to weigh up the dangers posed by the pandemic following the return of lockdowns to some parts of Europe, as well as the discovery of the new variant.
  • The dollar edged lower Friday, weighed by gains to the safe haven yen and Swiss franc, as traders dumped riskier currencies in the wake of the discovery of a new highly-mutated coronavirus variant. The World Health Organisation announced that it will hold an emergency meeting later Friday to discuss the implications for treatments in the wake of this discovery. While it isn't yet clear how virulent the new strain is, it is the first strain that has shown itself to be competitive with the Delta variant that has been responsible for most infections this year. The U.K. Health Security Agency said that the variant, called B.1.1.529 or nu, has a spike protein that was dramatically different from the one in the original coronavirus, which the current generation of Covid-19 vaccines are designed to fight.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, with concerns over the impact of the possibly vaccine-resistant omicron COVID-19 variant giving the safe-haven yellow metal a boost. New cases of the omicron variant were found in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Australia over the weekend, even as more countries, including Japan, imposed travel restrictions. However, the World Health Organization cautioned that it will take time to assess the strain and has classified it as a "variant of concern”. Two South African health experts, including South African Medical Association chair Angelique Coetzee, suggested the omicron variant is presenting with mild symptoms so far. The eurozone is better equipped to face the economic impact of a new wave of COVID-19 infections or the omicron variant, said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.Across the Atlantic, Atlanta U.S. Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Friday he is hopeful that the momentum of the U.S. economy will carry it through the next wave of COVID-19 cases, and said he remains open to accelerating the pace of the central bank's asset tapering. In Asia Pacific, Japanese retail sales grew 0.9% year-on-year in October. In Australia, company gross operating profits grew 4% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2021. Falling prices also saw physical gold demand pick up in major Asian hubs during the previous week. Dealers in India are also preparing for a likely surge as the wedding season gets going.
  • Oil rebounded by almost 5% on Monday to $76 a barrel as some investors viewed Friday's slump in oil and financial markets on concern about the Omicron coronavirus variant as overdone. While the World Health Organisation has warned that understanding the variant's severity could take time running into weeks, a South African doctor who has treated cases said symptoms of the variant were so far mild. European shares also rebounded on Monday, while safe haven bonds lost ground. Crude posted its biggest one-day drop since April 2020 on Friday as investors feared virus containment measures like travel bans would dampen demand. Japan said on Monday it would close its borders to foreigners, as the world's third-largest economy joined Israel in taking the toughest measures against the variant. The emergence of Omicron has created a new challenge for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, which are due to meet this week to set policy. The group has postponed technical meetings this week to gain time to assess Omicron's impact on demand, but Russia said it sees no need for urgent action on the market, downplaying possibility of changes to the OPEC+ oil deal. Also on the oil market's radar this week, talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear accord, that could add to global supply if a deal is reached, are resuming on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th November 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,808 1,818 1,834-1,840
Silver-XAG 23.50-24.10 24.80 25.10-25.50
Crude Oil 71.90--72.90 73.50 74.00-74.90
EURO/USD 1.1310-1.1360 1.1385 1.1420-1.1485
GBP/USD 1.3390-1.3420 1.3490 1.3540-1.3605
USD/JPY ¬113.45-113.90 114.50 115.00-115.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th November 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,789-1,780 1,771 1,765-1,758
Silver-XAG 23.20 22.60 22.20-21.50
Crude Oil 70.90-70.10 69.25 68.10-67.30
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1170 1.1120 1.1050-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.3300-1.3270 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100
USD/JPY 113.20-112.70 112.10 111.50-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (29th November 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1815.46/oz and low of US$1780.23/oz. Gold down 0.038% at US$1787.91/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1789-1765 with risk below 1765, targeting 1800-1808-1818 and 1834-1840-1852. Sell in between 1800-1852 keeping stop loss closing above 1852, targeting 1789-1780 and 1771-1765.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,789-1,780
S2     1,771
S3     1,765-1,758
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,800-1,808
R2     1,818
R3     1,834-1,840

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.7997

Buy
20-DMA   1830.22 Buy
50-DMA  

1807.29

Buy
100-DMA   1800.78 Buy
200-DMA   1800.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   19.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.71/oz and low of US$22.09/oz settled down by 2.13% at US$23.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.50-21.90, targeting 24.05-24.55-25.05 and 25.50-25.90 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 21.90. Sell in between 24.10-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 24.55-23.75-23.20 and 22.60-22.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.20
S2     22.60
S3     22.20-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.50-24.10
R2     24.80
R3     25.10-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.35 Buy
20-DMA   24.22 Sell
50-DMA   23.90 Sell
100-DMA   24.22 Sell
200-DMA   24.48 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.950 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.587 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$77.93/bbl, intraday low of US$67.26/bbl and settled down by 12.5% to close at US$68.00/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 71.90-74.90 with stop loss at 75.00; targeting 70.90-70.10-69.25 and 68.10-67.30. Buy above 70.90-67.30 with risk daily closing below 67.30 and targeting 71.90-72.90-73.50 and 74.00-74.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.90-70.10
S2     69.25
S3     68.10-67.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.90--72.90
R2     73.50
R3     74.00-74.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.850 Sell
20-DMA   77.31 Sell
50-DMA   77.28 Buy
100-DMA   74.66 Buy
200-DMA   69.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.873 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1201/EUR, high of US$1.1331/EUR and settled the day up by 0.960% to close at US$1.1315/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1170 with risk below 1.1170, targeting 1.1360-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1310-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1170
S2     1.1120
S3     1.1050-1.0900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1310-1.1360
R2     1.1385
R3     1.1420-1.1485

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1477 Sell
50-DMA   1.1580 Sell
100-DMA   1.1683 Sell
200-DMA   1.1767 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3277/GBP, high of US$1.3359/GBP and settled the day up by 0.1276% to close at US$1.3337/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3350-1.3200 with targets 1.3420-1.3490-1.3540 and 1.3605-1.36851.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3420-1.3685 with targets at 1.3390-1.3350 and 1.3310-1.3265-1.3200 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3300-1.3270
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3150-1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3390-1.3420
R2     1.3490
R3     1.3540-1.3605

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3539 Buy
50-DMA   1.3625 Buy
100-DMA   1.3696 Buy
200-DMA   1.3684 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY113.04/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.36/USD and settled the day down 1.636% at JPY113.38/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.20-110.50 with targets of 113.45-113.90-114.20 and 114.90-115.60-116.00 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 113.45-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.20-112.70-112.10 and 111.50-110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20-112.70
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     ¬113.45-113.90
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.340 Buy
20-DMA   114.25 Sell
50-DMA   113.18 Sell
100-DMA   111.96 Sell
200-DMA   110.46 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1202 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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