AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar scaled a one-week high versus a basket of major rivals on Tuesday, supported by expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting this week and haven demand amid continued uncertainty about the Omicron coronavirus variant. The Fed's two-day meeting that begins later Tuesday headlines a string of central banks announcing policy decisions this week, including the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Frida. The U.S. central bank is expected to announce it will wrap up its bond buying stimulus sooner than previously communicated, potentially setting up earlier interest rate increases next year. Money markets currently price good odds of a rate hike by June, with another as early as November. Although the dollar index's advance has slowed recently, pullbacks into the mid-95 level are a buy, the strategists said. Britain reported the first publicly confirmed death globally from Omicron, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday, a day after he warned of a "tidal wave" of infections from the new variant. British scientists announced findings that two doses of current COVID-19 vaccines do not induce enough neutralising antibodies against Omicron. Meanwhile, mainland China detected its first case of Omicron infection, state media said Monday.
  • The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia as expectations of interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve and concerns over the omicron COVID-19 variant rise. The Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, are among around 20 central banks handing down their respective policy decisions this week. The Fed will start its two-day monetary policy meeting later in the day and hand down the policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to quicken its asset tapering program and investors will look for clues about the timing of interest rate hikes in 2022. Investors are now anticipating an interest rate hike by June in 2022, with another hike as early as November of that year. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will hand down their policy decisions on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan will hand its down a day later. The European Central Bank is expected to confirm its exit from EUR1.85 trillion ($2.08 trillion) pandemic emergency stimulus scheme in March 2022 during the meeting. Meanwhile, with the U.K. reporting its first death linked to an omicron case according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the probability of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England is diminishing. In Asia Pacific, China reported its first imported case of omicron infection.
  • Gold prices were down on Tuesday morning, but moves were small as investors await decisions from key central banks meetings.
  • Gold futures inched down 0.09% to $1,786.65 by 10:15 PM ET (3:15 AM GMT). The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, edged up on Tuesday. Around 20 central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, will hand down their respective policy decisions this week. The Fed will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting later in the day and hand down its policy decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to accelerate its asset tapering program. Investors will also look for clues about the timing of interest rate hikes in 2022. The European Central Bank will hand down its policy decision on Thursday, where it is expected to confirm its exit from EUR1.85 trillion ($2.08 trillion) COVID-19 emergency stimulus scheme in March 2022. Meanwhile, for the Bank of England, concerns about the omicron COVID-19 variant is outweighing concerns about high inflation and diminishing the probability of an interest rate hike. The U.K. has reported its first death linked to an omicron case, according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. On the data front, the U.S. producer price index is due later in the day. In Asia Pacific, Chinese data, including industrial production and retail sales, is due on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a New York Federal Reserve survey released on Monday showed that U.S. consumers' short-term inflation expectations were higher, while expectations for future earnings growth dropped, in November.
  • Oil was down Tuesday morning in Asia, with fuel demand concerns rising after more countries tightened measures to curb the spread of the omicron COVID-19 variant. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 and will stick to its timeline for a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of oil use. The cartel also expects that omicron will have a mild and temporary impact. The U.K. reported its first omicron-related death, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Other countries, including Norway, are tightening restrictive measures to curb the variant’s spread. In Asia Pacific, China also reported its first omicron case, and the province of Zhejiang is fighting its first COVID-19 cluster in 2021. Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for developing Asia for 2021 and 2022. The uncertainty and risks brought on by omicron could also impact fuel demand. On the supply side, the largest U.S. shale basin's output is expected to surge to a record in January 2022, according to Monday’s monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Investors now await U.S. crude supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th December 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,791-1,800 1,808 1,818-1,831
Silver-XAG 22.50-23.10 23.80 24.20-24.50
Crude Oil 71.50-72.30 73.00 73.50- 74.70
EURO/USD 1.1340-1.1385 1.1420 1.1485-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3270-1.3300 1.3390 1 3420-1.3490
USD/JPY 113.60-113.90 114.50 115.00-115.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th December 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,778-1,769 1,758 1,750-1,744
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.10 21.40 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 70.60-70.10 69.30 68.50-67.90
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1170 1.1120 1.1050-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3200-1.3150 1.3100 1.3050-1.3010
USD/JPY 113.20-112.70 112.10 111.50-111.00

Intra-Day Strategy (14th December 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1791.42/oz and low of US$1781.82/oz. Gold up 0.203% at US$1786.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1778-1740 with risk below 1740, targeting 1790-1800 and 1808-1818-1834. Sell in between 1790-1818 keeping stop loss closing above 1820, targeting 1783-1774-1769 and 1758-1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,778-1,769
S2     1,758
S3     1,750-1,744
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,791-1,800
R2     1,808
R3     1,818-1,831

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.082

Buy
20-DMA   1791.54 Buy
50-DMA  

1794

Buy
100-DMA   1800.78 Buy
200-DMA   1800.07 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   19.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$22.40/oz and low of US$22.13/oz settled up by 0.676% at US$22.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.60-20.50, targeting 22.60-23.20-23.80 and 24.05-24.55-25.05 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.90. Sell in between 22.60-26.50 with stop loss above 26.50; targeting 22.10-21.40 and 21.00-20.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.60-22.10
S2     21.40
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.50-23.10
R2     23.80
R3     24.20-24.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.467 Buy
20-DMA   23.46 Sell
50-DMA   23.70 Sell
100-DMA   24.04 Sell
200-DMA   24.42 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.186 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$72.80/bbl, intraday low of US$70.52/bbl and settled down by 1.511% to close at US$70.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 72.00-74.70 with stop loss at 74.70; targeting 70.60-70.10 and 69.10-67.30. Buy above 70.60-67.90 with risk daily closing below 67.90 and targeting 72.30-73.00-73.80 and 74.70-75.50-76.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     70.60-70.10
S2     69.30
S3     68.50-67.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     71.50-72.30
R2     73.00
R3     73.50- 74.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.355 Sell
20-DMA   75.09 Sell
50-DMA   73.84 Buy
100-DMA   74.03 Buy
200-DMA   69.10 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.873 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.933 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1259/EUR, high of US$1.1318/EUR and settled the day down by 0.213% to close at US$1.1283/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1340-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1340-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1170
S2     1.1120
S3     1.1050-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1340-1.1385
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1485-1.1510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.652 Buy
20-DMA   1.1322 Sell
50-DMA   1.1433 Sell
100-DMA   1.1567 Sell
200-DMA   1.1688 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3206/GBP, high of US$1.3268/GBP and settled the day down by 0.231% to close at US$1.3213/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3200-1.3050 with targets 1.3300-1.3390-1.3420 and 1.3490-1.3540 with stop loss closing below 1.3050. Sell in between 1.3270-1.3540 with targets at 1.3265-1.3200-1.3150 and 1.3100-1.3050 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200-1.3150
S2     1.3100
S3     1.3050-1.3010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3270-1.3300
R2     1.3390
R3     1 3420-1.3490

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3403 Buy
50-DMA   1.3528 Buy
100-DMA   1.3631 Buy
200-DMA   1.3650 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY113.25/USD and made an intraday high of JPY113.72/USD and settled the day up 0.194% at JPY113.49/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.20-110.50 with targets of 113.45-113.90-114.20 and 114.90-115.60-116.00 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 113.60-115.90 with risk above 115.90 targeting 113.20-112.70-112.10 and 111.50-110.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     113.20-112.70
S2     112.10
S3     111.50-111.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     113.60-113.90
R2     114.50
R3     115.00-115.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.340 Buy
20-DMA   114.25 Sell
50-DMA   113.18 Sell
100-DMA   111.96 Sell
200-DMA   110.46 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   94.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1202 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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