AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, but remained near the bottom of its recent range in holiday-thinned volumes as fears over the Omicron Covid-19 variant continued to subside. Investors will focus on the release of weekly initial jobless claims later Thursday for further evidence that the U.S. economic recovery continues despite the rising number of Covid cases. Initial unemployment claims totaled 205,000 in the week ended Dec. 18, unchanged from the prior period, Labor Department data showed last week, a level that is generally consistent with pre-pandemic levels. The claims figure is expected to be largely unchanged, at 8:30 AM ET (1330 GMT), illustrating the low levels of job losses seen in recent months as employers focus on attracting and retaining workers to keep pace with consumer demand. The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, but traded near the low end of its recent range along with the Japanese yen. However, moves remained small due to holiday-thinned trading and as fears over the omicron COVID-19 variant continued to subside. The U.S. currency was supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting 1.56% on Wednesday, the highest since Nov. 20, 2021. Investors' risk appetite improved as many governments refrained from re-imposing lockdowns, despite soaring numbers of COVID-19 cases globally as omicron continues to spread. The number of global cases exceeded 284 million as of Dec. 30, according to Johns Hopkins University data. However, other investors warned against reading too much into the moves as trades remained thin heading into the end of 2021. Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said on Wednesday that the current swings in the lira were not worrying and that it would return to normal levels.
  • Gold was down on Thursday morning in Asia as investors continue to monitor the implication of the omicron COVID-19 variant and central banks’ withdrawal of monetary stimulus. The yellow metal has fallen nearly 5% to date in 2021 and is expected to record its biggest annual decline since 2015. However, investors expect gold trading to remain thin and range-bound for the remainder of the year. In Asia Pacific, data released earlier in the day showed that South Korean industrial production rose a better-than-expected 5.9% year-on-year in November. However, the data also showed that retail sales contracted by a larger-than-expected 1.9% month-on-month. Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up on Thursday, despite a surge in omicron COVID-19 variant cases. Investors also continue to keep an eye on central banks’ withdrawal of monetary stimulus.
  • Oil prices eased on Thursday after the world's top importer China cut the first batch of crude import allocations for 2022, offsetting the impact of U.S. data showing fuel demand had held up despite soaring Omicron coronavirus infections. Oil prices pared earlier gains after China, the world's top crude importer, lowered the first batch of 2022 import quotas to mostly independent refiners by 11% below the comparable year-earlier quota, industry sources said. U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 24, which was more than analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, versus analysts' forecasts for builds, indicating demand remained strong despite record COVID-19 cases in the United States. Oil prices also drew support from steps taken by governments to limit the impact of record high COVID-19 cases on economic growth, such as easing testing rules. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Jan. 4 to decide whether to continue increasing output in February. Saudi Arabia's King Salman said on Wednesday the OPEC+ production agreement was needed for oil market stability and that producers must comply with the pact. Global oil prices have rebounded by between 50% and 60% in 2021 as fuel demand roared back to near pre-pandemic levels and deep production cuts by OPEC+ producers for most of the year erased a supply glut that has been weighing on the market. Oil was up Thursday morning in Asia, continuing an upward trend as data showed a decline in U.S. crude and fuel inventories last week. This soothed investor worries that rising COVID-19 cases had dampened fuel demand. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 3.233-million-barrel draw, while a 4.715-million-barrel draw was recorded last week. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute released the day before showed a draw of 3.090 million barrels. The EIA data showed that gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.459 million barrels. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has resisted U.S.-led calls to boost output as it wants to provide the market with clear guidance and not deviate from policy on gradual increases to productions. Meanwhile, investors are looking to see how an OPEC+ meeting on Jan. 4 will pan out. The meeting will see the cartel decide whether to proceed with a planned production increase of 400,000 barrels per day in February 2022. During its last meeting earlier in the month, OPEC+ decided to boost output for January despite the rise of the omicron COVID-19 variant.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th December 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,818-1,824 1,834 1,840-1,848
Silver-XAG 23.15-23.80 24.50 24.90-25.50
Crude Oil 76.00-76.50 77.55 78.20-79.00
EURO/USD 1.1340-1.1385 1.1420 1.1485-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3440-1.3490 1.3550 1.3610-1.3700
USD/JPY 115.00 116.50-116.90 116.50-116.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th December 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,808-1,800 1,785 1,778-1,769
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.10 21.40 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 75.20-74.60 74.00 73.30-72.50
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1170 1.1120 1.1050-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3390¬-1.3300 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100
USD/JPY 114.50-113.90 113.50 113.10-112.70

Intra-Day Strategy (30th December 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1820.15/oz and low of US$1804.93/oz. Gold down 0.461% at US$1806.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1808-1758 with risk below 1758, targeting 1818-1824 and 1831-1840. Sell in between 1808-1831 keeping stop loss closing above 1820, targeting 1783-1774-1769 and 1758-1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,808-1,800
S2     1,785
S3     1,778-1,769
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,818-1,824
R2     1,834
R3     1,840-1,848

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.253

Buy
20-DMA   1789.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1793.06

Buy
100-DMA   1794.81 Buy
200-DMA   1796.27 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$23.42/oz and low of US$22.95/oz settled up by % at US$23.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.60-20.50, targeting 22.60-23.20 and 23.80-24.05-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.10. Sell in between 22.90-24.50 with stop loss above 24.50; targeting 21.40-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.60-22.10
S2     21.40
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.15-23.80
R2     24.50
R3     24.90-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.673 Buy
20-DMA   22.70 Sell
50-DMA   23.24 Sell
100-DMA   24.17 Sell
200-DMA   24.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.186 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US76.73/bbl, intraday low of US$75.35/bbl and settled up by 0.0158% to close at US$75.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.00-79.00 with stop loss at 79.00; targeting 75.20-74.60-74.00 and 73.30-72.50-71.60. Buy above 75.20-72.90 with risk daily closing below 72.90 and targeting 76.00-76.50-77.55 and 78.20-79.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     75.20-74.60
S2     74.00
S3     73.30-72.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     76.00-76.50
R2     77.55
R3     78.20-79.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.522 Sell
20-DMA   72.09 Sell
50-DMA   74.24 Buy
100-DMA   73.51 Buy
200-DMA   69.25 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.873 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.741 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1288/EUR, high of US$1.1332/EUR and settled the day down by 0.1686% to close at US$1.1307/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1340-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1340-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1170
S2     1.1120
S3     1.1050-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1340-1.1385
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1485-1.1510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.652 Buy
20-DMA   1.1322 Sell
50-DMA   1.1433 Sell
100-DMA   1.1567 Sell
200-DMA   1.1688 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3414/GBP, high of US$1.3461/GBP and settled the day down by 0.132% to close at US$1.3421/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3390-1.3050 with target 1.3420 and 1.3490-1.3540 with stop loss closing below 1.3050. Sell in between 1.3440-1.3610 with targets at 1.3300-1.3265-1.3200 and 1.3150-1.3100-1.3050 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3390¬-1.3300
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3150-1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3440-1.3490
R2     1.3550
R3     1.3610-1.3700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3403 Buy
50-DMA   1.3528 Buy
100-DMA   1.3631 Buy
200-DMA   1.3650 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.69/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.94/USD and settled the day up 0.0235% at JPY114.80/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 113.90-110.50 with targets of 114.50-114.90-115.60 and 116.00-116.50-117.00 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 114.50-117.00 with risk above 117.00 targeting 113.90-113.20-112.70 and 112.10-111.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.50-113.90
S2     113.50
S3     113.10-112.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.00
R2     116.50-116.90
R3     116.50-116.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.065 Buy
20-DMA   113.67 Sell
50-DMA   113.29 Sell
100-DMA   112.34 Sell
200-DMA   110.87 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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