AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, continuing its small upwards moves as 2021 wraps up. The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.08% to 6.3743. Chinese data released earlier in the day showed that December’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.3, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 52.7. Both figures were above the 50-mark indicating growth. China’s debt-ridden property sector, and some initial coupon payment deadlines for Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.'s (HK:1638) (HK:1638) dollar bonds, in particular, were also in investors’ radars. Japanese markets closed for the day. with Australian markets due to have an early end to the day. Volumes were thin in the last trading day of 2021 for some markets, meaning that moves were likely to be more exaggerated. U.S. data released on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 last week, with the job market seemingly undented by the spread of the omicron COVID-19 variant. The data also said that the Chicago PMI was a higher-than-expected 63.1 for December. COVID-19 will continue to be a key factor in investors' outlook, as the number of global COVID-19 cases continues to surge. The number topped 286 million as of Dec. 31, according to Johns Hopkins University data. However, some investors downplayed the variant’s impact.
  • The dollar ticked up against a basket of rival currencies in holiday-thinned trading on Thursday as a dip in weekly jobless claims data helped ease fears that a surge of COVID-19 infections would curb the economic recovery. New claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell in the week leading up to Christmas and benefits rolls slid to their lowest level of the pandemic era the previous week, data showed, signaling no impact on employment from the rapidly spreading Omicron variant The better-than-expected report initially helped lift the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes to all-time highs on Thursday, extending their record-setting runs before they receded in late trading. The dip in jobless claims came even as COVID-19 infections in the United States hit a record high for the second day running, Reuters data showed. Low holiday trading volume also meant that moves in the market were likely exaggerated, he added. "By and large, the end of the year is dominated by flows, not fundamentals," he said. That optimism could be seen in the dollar pulling away from the safe-haven Japanese yen, he said The Turkish lira continued to slide and was down 4.68% at about 13.1 per dollar, after having fallen 6.9% on Wednesday. Bitcoin steadied after two days of losses. The world's largest cryptocurrency was last up 0.72% at $47,568, well off its all-time high of around $69,000 in November.
  • Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia but is set for its biggest yearly decline in six years. The yellow metal has fallen 4% so far in 2021 and is on track for its biggest annual decline since 2015, as global economies continue to recover from the impact of COVID-19. This is despite the continual surge in COVID-19 cases involving the omicron variant. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from one-month highs on Thursday, but there were no major catalysts and many traders are already on holiday. Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up on Friday morning, following better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for December and a rally in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The manufacturing PMI was 50.3 and the non-manufacturing PMI was 52.7, with both indexes exceeding expectations and remaining above the 50-mark indicating growth. Meanwhile, U.S. data released on Thursday showed that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 198,000 last week. In other precious metals, silver and platinum were up 0.3%, while palladium fell 0.5%. Silver is set for its worst year since 2014 with a drop of about 12%. Platinum tumbled nearly 10% and palladium was headed for its biggest annual decline since 2015 with a 20% slump.
  • Oil prices slid on Friday but were set to post their biggest annual gains in 12 years, spurred by the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 slump and producer restraint, even as infections surged to record highs around the world. Brent is on track to end the year up 53%, while WTI is heading for a 57% gain, the strongest performance for the two benchmark contracts since 2009, when prices soared more than 70%. Both contracts touched their 2021 peak in October with Brent at $86.70 a barrel, the highest since 2018, and WTI at $85.41 a barrel, the loftiest since 2014. lobal oil prices are expected to rise further next year as jet fuel demand catches up. However, after rising for several straight days, oil prices stalled on Friday as COVID-19 cases soared to new pandemic highs across the globe, from Australia to the United States, stoked by the highly transmissible Omicron coronavirus variant. U.S. health experts warned Americans to prepare for severe disruptions in coming weeks, with infection rates likely to worsen amid increased holiday travel, New Year celebrations and school reopenings following winter breaks. With oil hovering near $80, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, together called OPEC+, will probably stick to their plan to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in February when they meet on Jan. 4, four sources said, as they continue to wind back sharp production cuts implemented in 2020.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
31st December 2021 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,818-1,824 1,834 1,840-1,848
Silver-XAG 23.15-23.80 24.50 24.90-25.50
Crude Oil 76.70-77.55 78.20 79.00-79.90
EURO/USD 1.1340-1.1385 1.1420 1.1485-1.1510
GBP/USD 1.3440-1.3490 1.3550 1.3610-1.3700
USD/JPY 115.90-116.50 116.906 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
31st December 2021 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,808-1,800 1,785 1,778-1,769
Silver-XAG 22.60-22.10 21.40 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 76.50-75.20 74.60 74.00-73.30
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1170 1.1120 1.1050-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3200 1.3200 1.3150-1.3100
USD/JPY 115.00-114.50 113.90 113.50-113.10

Intra-Day Strategy (31st December 2021)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1817.10/oz and low of US$1796.08/oz. Gold up 0.544% at US$1814.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1808-1758 with risk below 1758, targeting 1818-1824 and 1831-1840. Sell in between 1818-1831 keeping stop loss closing above 1820, targeting 1783-1774-1769 and 1758-1750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,808-1,800
S2     1,785
S3     1,778-1,769
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,818-1,824
R2     1,834
R3     1,840-1,848

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.253

Buy
20-DMA   1789.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1793.06

Buy
100-DMA   1794.81 Buy
200-DMA   1796.27 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$23.10/oz and low of US$22.58/oz settled up by 0.872% at US$23.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.60-20.50, targeting 22.60-23.20 and 23.80-24.05-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.10. Sell in between 22.90-24.50 with stop loss above 24.50; targeting 21.40-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.60-22.10
S2     21.40
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.15-23.80
R2     24.50
R3     24.90-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.673 Buy
20-DMA   22.70 Sell
50-DMA   23.24 Sell
100-DMA   24.17 Sell
200-DMA   24.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.186 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US77.23/bbl, intraday low of US$75.57/bbl and settled down by 0.167% to close at US$76.23/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.70-79.00 with stop loss at 79.00; targeting 75.20-74.60-74.00 and 73.30-72.50-71.60. Buy above 76.50-72.90 with risk daily closing below 72.90 and targeting 76.00-76.50-77.55 and 78.20-79.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     76.50-75.20
S2     74.60
S3     74.00-73.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     76.70-77.55
R2     78.20
R3     79.00-79.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.535 Sell
20-DMA   73.60 Sell
50-DMA   74.19 Buy
100-DMA   73.59 Buy
200-DMA   69.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.873 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.535 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1297/EUR, high of US$1.1359/EUR and settled the day up by 0.271% to close at US$1.1326/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1340-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1340-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1170
S2     1.1120
S3     1.1050-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1340-1.1385
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1485-1.1510

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.652 Buy
20-DMA   1.1322 Sell
50-DMA   1.1433 Sell
100-DMA   1.1567 Sell
200-DMA   1.1688 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3453/GBP, high of US$1.3521/GBP and settled the day down by 0.132% to close at US$1.3491/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3200
S2     1.3200
S3     1.3150-1.3100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3440-1.3490
R2     1.3550
R3     1.3610-1.3700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

32.480

Buy
20-DMA   1.3403 Buy
50-DMA   1.3528 Buy
100-DMA   1.3631 Buy
200-DMA   1.3650 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY114.89/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.20/USD and settled the day up 0.0810% at JPY114.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 114.90-110.50 with targets of 114.50-114.90-115.60 and 116.00-116.50-117.00 with stop below 106.00. Sell below 115.90-117.00 with risk above 117.00 targeting 113.90-113.20-112.70 and 112.10-111.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.00-114.50
S2     113.90
S3     113.50-113.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.90-116.50
R2     116.906
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.065 Buy
20-DMA   113.67 Sell
50-DMA   113.29 Sell
100-DMA   112.34 Sell
200-DMA   110.87 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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