AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar hovered near the middle of its recent range against major peers on Tuesday as traders looked to incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell's nomination hearing later in the day for new clues on the timing and pace of policy normalisation. In his prepared opening remarks, released Monday, Powell will pledge to prevent high inflation from becoming "entrenched," but will make no mention of plans for the path of monetary policy. However, he will take questions from senators in his bid for a second four-year term. U.S. December consumer inflation data is due to be released on Wednesday, with headline CPI seen coming in at a red-hot 7% on a year-on-year basis, boosting the case for an early increase in interest rates. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to an almost two-year high above 1.8% overnight, but provided only muted support for the greenback. The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia but remained near the middle of its recent range. Investors now await U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Senate Banking Committee hearing later in the day for fresh clues on the timetable and speed of policy normalization. In his opening remarks for the hearing released on Monday, Powell pledged to prevent high inflation from becoming "entrenched," but did not provide clues about the central bank’s timeline and speed of monetary tightening. Powell is bidding for a second four-year term at the Fed’s helm and will take questions from senators during his hearing. The hearing for Fed vice-chair nominee Lael Brainard will take place on Thursday. Kansas City Fed President Esther George and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will also speak later in the day, the first from a group of Fed officials speaking throughout the week. It seems that the Fed was of the mindset of "sooner rather than later" for both higher rates and running off its balance sheet after ending bond-buying stimulus, TD Securities strategists said in a note. Money markets are priced for an interest rate hike by May 2022, with an additional two by November. Investors now await U.S. data, with the consumer price index and the Fed Beige Book due on Wednesday, followed by the producer price index a day later. China will also release its own consumer and producer price indexes on Wednesday.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, with a weaker dollar lending support and with U.S. inflation data due later in the week. Investors now await incumbent U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's nomination hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee later in the day for fresh clues on the timing and pace of monetary policy tightening. Fed vice-chair nominee Lael Brainard’s hearing before the committee will take place on Thursday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now expects the Fed to raise interest rates four times in 2022, alongside analysts at J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank. On the data front, the U.S. consumer price index and the Fed Beige Book will be released on Wednesday, with the producer price index following a day later.
  • Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with investors regaining some risk appetite as they await clues from the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman on potential interest rate rises and as some oil producers continued to struggle to beef up output. A weaker U.S. dollar helped support oil prices on Tuesday, as it makes oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. A U.S. Senate committee holds hearings this week for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and vice chair nominee Lael Brainard that could provide new details about the U.S. central bank's plans to tighten monetary policy. Recent oil price declines had been driven by worries about soaring cases of COVID-19 around the world potentially sapping fuel demand. Some analysts said tight supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and allies, together called OPEC+, not keeping up with demand was also supporting prices. Analysts pointed to OPEC supply additions running below their allowed increase under the OPEC+ pact, as some countries, including Nigeria, are not producing their agreed volumes. Libya, which is exempt from OPEC supply curbs, has been hit by pipeline maintenance work and oil field disruptions. However on Monday, production resumed at the El Feel oil field, where an armed group halted output last month. The market is waiting on U.S. oil and product inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, due at 2130 GMT on Tuesday, followed by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Six analysts polled by Reuters expect U.S. crude stockpiles fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to Jan. 7, which would mark a seventh straight week of declining crude inventories. Oil was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, with investors regaining some risk appetite as some oil producers continued their struggle to increase output. Oil has dropped during the past two sessions, thanks to worries about soaring numbers of COVID-19 cases that could impact fuel demand. However, some investors pointed to tight supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) not keeping up with demand and supporting prices. Other investors pointed to OPEC supply additions remaining below the allowed increase under a 2021 OPEC+ pact. Some member countries, including Nigeria, are not producing their agreed volumes. Supply in Libya, exempt from the cartel's curbs, has been hit by both pipeline maintenance work and oil field disruptions. However, production resumed at the El Feel oil field on Monday, after an armed group halted output in December 2021. Investors now await U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, due later in the day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th January 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,818-1,824 1,832 1,841-1,850
Silver-XAG 23.15-23.80 24.50 24.90-25.50
Crude Oil 79.00-80.10 80.60 81.00-81.80
EURO/USD 1.1350-1.1385 1.1420 1.1485-1.1525
GBP/USD 1.3590-1.3630 1.3700 1.3730-1.3800
USD/JPY 115.50-116.00 116.50 116.90-117.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th January 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,808-1,790 1,784 1,778-1,770
Silver-XAG 22.50-22.10 21.40 21.00-20.50
Crude Oil 78.20-77.55 76.90 75.90-75.00
EURO/USD 1.1320-1.1270 1.1170-1.1120 1.1170-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.3550-1.3490 1.3440 1.3390-1.3300
USD/JPY 115.00-114.65 113.95 113.50-113.10

Intra-Day Strategy (11th January 2022)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1802.24/oz and low of US$1790.26/oz. Gold up 0.373% at US$1801.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1805-1778 with risk below 1778, targeting 1818-1824-1834 and 1840-1848-1854. Sell in between 1818-1854 keeping stop loss closing above 1854, targeting 1800-1790 and 1783-1774-1769.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,808-1,790
S2     1,784
S3     1,778-1,770
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,818-1,824
R2     1,832
R3     1,841-1,850

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.253

Buy
20-DMA   1789.95 Buy
50-DMA  

1793.06

Buy
100-DMA   1794.81 Buy
200-DMA   1796.27 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.816 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$22.50/oz and low of US$22.18/oz settled up by 0.587% at US$22.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.50-20.50, targeting 22.60-23.20 and 23.80-24.05-24.55 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.10. Sell in between 22.90-24.50 with stop loss above 24.50; targeting 21.40-21.00-20.50 and 19.90-19.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.50-22.10
S2     21.40
S3     21.00-20.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.15-23.80
R2     24.50
R3     24.90-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.673 Buy
20-DMA   22.70 Sell
50-DMA   23.24 Sell
100-DMA   24.17 Sell
200-DMA   24.17 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.891 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.186 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US79.00/bbl, intraday low of US$77.41/bbl and settled up by 0.712% to close at US$77.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 79.00-82.50 with stop loss at 82.50; targeting 78.20-77.55 and 76.90-75.90. Buy above 78.20-75.90 with risk daily closing below 75.90 and targeting 79.00-80.10-80.60 and 81.00-81.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     78.20-77.55
S2     76.90
S3     75.90-75.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     79.00-80.10
R2     80.60
R3     81.00-81.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.535 Sell
20-DMA   73.60 Sell
50-DMA   74.19 Buy
100-DMA   73.59 Buy
200-DMA   69.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.873 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.535 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1284/EUR, high of US$1.1360/EUR and settled the day down by 0.279% to close at US$1.1320/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1700), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1825. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1320-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1350-1.1385-1.1420 and 1.1485-1.1510-1.1590. Sell below 1.1350-1.1540 targeting 1.1540 and 1.1310-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1170-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1320-1.1270
S2     1.1170-1.1120
S3     1.1170-1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1350-1.1385
R2     1.1420
R3     1.1485-1.1525

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.652 Buy
20-DMA   1.1322 Sell
50-DMA   1.1433 Sell
100-DMA   1.1567 Sell
200-DMA   1.1688 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.685 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3531/GBP, high of US$1.3603/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0670% to close at US$1.3575/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3550-1.3200 with target 1.3590-1.3630 and 1.3700-1.3730 with stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3590-1.3730 with targets at 1.3550-1.3490-1.3440 and 1.3390-1.3300-1.3265 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3550-1.3490
S2     1.3440
S3     1.3390-1.3300

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3590-1.3630
R2     1.3700
R3     1.3730-1.3800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.834

Buy
20-DMA   1.3466 Buy
50-DMA   1.3453 Buy
100-DMA   1.3530 Buy
200-DMA   1.3588 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY115.03/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.84/USD and settled the day down 0.331% at JPY115.13/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Long positions above 115.50-113.50 with targets of 116.00-116.50-116.90 and 117.50-118.00 with stop below 113.50. Sell below 116.00-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.50-114.65-113.90 and 113.20-112.70-112.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.00-114.65
S2     113.95
S3     113.50-113.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.50-116.00
R2     116.50
R3     116.90-117.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.065 Buy
20-DMA   113.67 Sell
50-DMA   113.29 Sell
100-DMA   112.34 Sell
200-DMA   110.87 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.683 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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