AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar has largely held on to last week’s gains with traders fretting over the potential of a war in Eastern Europe as well as high inflation and potentially aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin any day. Additionally, This volatile situation adds to reasons to support the dollar, after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will start tightening its monetary policy with a 50 basis point interest rate hike in March. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly tried to rein in such expectations on Sunday, saying that being too "abrupt and aggressive" with interest rate increases could be counter-productive to the Fed's goals. However, these views could be countered this week with Fed speakers out in force. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are to speak on Thursday. On Friday Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks, as do New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. Additionally, Wednesday’s minutes from the Fed's January meeting, will be scrutinized for any indications on how big a move officials are contemplating. The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, but losses were minimal as safe-haven currencies held gains and riskier ones struggled to hold onto them. Investors also remained concerned about potential conflict in Eastern Europe, alongside soaring inflation. The U.S. sounded the alarm on Sunday that Russia could create a surprise pretext to invade its neighbor, which Russia has denied. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will head to Ukraine later in the day, followed by a trip to Moscow the day after, and warned of sanctions if an attack takes place. The tension is the latest shock to a market already reeling from the previous week’s high U.S. inflation data. Although concerns about an emergency rate hike have somewhat subsided, some investors expect the dollar to stay supported. The dollar steadied earlier in the session, with the euro, which dropped 1.2% on the yen on Friday, and oil importers' currencies viewed as most at risk from any conflict in Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will address the European Parliament, while Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will also speak to the media, later in the day The pound was steady, with investors convinced the Bank of England will hike its own rates in March 2022 and pricing about a 40% chance of a 50-basis point rise. Across the Atlantic, the Fed will release the minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday. The previous week’s talk about an inter-meeting interest rate hike died down somewhat after the Fed released an unchanged bond-buying schedule for the coming month. The central bank will increase interest rates only after its buying has ceased.
  • Gold was up on Monday morning in Asia, after hitting a near-three-month high during the previous session. Concerns about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine continue, which kept investors’ risk appetite down. U.S. concerns that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent sent Asia Pacific shares on a mostly downward trend and oil to seven-year peaks. The news also gave bonds a boost, while belting the euro. Russia could imminently create a pretext to invade its neighbor, the U.S. warned on Sunday. However, Russia has denied the allegations and accused the West of "hysteria", even as it continues to build up troops near its border with Ukraine Meanwhile, data released on Friday showed that the Michigan consumer expectations index was at 57.4 in February. The Michigan consumer sentiment index was at 61.7, the lowest level in more than a decade, as expectations that inflation will continue to increase in the near term continue to increase. However, these expectations will likely not derail spending considering excess savings and a strong labor market recovery. The U.S. Federal Reserve will also release the minutes from its last meeting later in the week.
  • Oil prices were steady on Monday after hitting their highest in more than seven years on fears that a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could trigger U.S. and European sanctions that would disrupt exports from one of the world's top oil producers. Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, the United States said on Sunday. The tensions come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, struggle to ramp up output despite monthly pledges to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) until March. While geopolitical tensions help add to the bullish view, this oil supercycle is fundamentally driven, RBC Capital analysts said. The International Energy Agency said the gap between OPEC+ output and its target widened to 900,000 bpd in January, while JP Morgan said the gap for OPEC alone was at 1.2 million bpd. The bank added that a supercycle is in full swing with "oil prices likely to overshoot to $125 a barrel on widening spare capacity risk premium". Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday during a news conference in Tehran that the talks have not reached a dead end, even though a senior Iranian security official said earlier that progress in talks was becoming "more difficult". In the United States, the robust oil prices are encouraging energy firms to ramp up output as they added the most oil rigs in four years last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th February 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,856-1,865 1,870 1,876-1,885
Silver-XAG 23.80-24.40 24.90 25.50-25.90
Crude Oil 91.90-92.50 93.00 93.90-94.50
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1400 1.1485 1.1525-1.1570
GBP/USD 1.3590-1.3640 1.3700 1.3750-1.3800
USD/JPY 115.70-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th February 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,849-1,841 1,833 1,824-1,808
Silver-XAG 23.15-22.90 22.50 21.90-21.50
Crude Oil 91.00-90.40 89.00 88.20-87.60
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1270 1.1230 1.1200-1.1185
GBP/USD 1.3500 1.3410 1.3350-1.3300
USD/JPY 115.00 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (14th February 2022)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1865.30/oz and low of US$1820.78/oz. Gold up 1.754% at US$1858.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1849-1808 with risk below 1808, targeting 1856-1865-1870 and 1876-1885. Sell in between 1856-1885 keeping stop loss closing above 1885, targeting 1849-1840-1833 and 1824-1818-1804.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,849-1,841
S2     1,833
S3     1,824-1,808
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,856-1,865
R2     1,870
R3     1,876-1,885

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.587

Buy
20-DMA   1812.81 Sell
50-DMA  

1812.81

Buy
100-DMA   1806.50 Buy
200-DMA   1802.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.016 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.877 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.67/oz and low of US$22.84/oz settled up by 1.601% at US$23.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.15-20.50, targeting 23.70-24.10 and 24.55-24.90- 25.40 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.50. Sell in between 23.80-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.15-22.90-22.50 and 22.10-21.90-21.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.15-22.90
S2     22.50
S3     21.90-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.80-24.40
R2     24.90
R3     25.50-25.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.185 Buy
20-DMA   23.13 Sell
50-DMA   23.11 Sell
100-DMA   23.36 Sell
200-DMA   23.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.764 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US92.98/bbl, intraday low of US$87.96/bbl and settled up by 3.83% to close at US$92.19/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 91.90-94.50 with stop loss at 94.50; targeting 91.00-90.40-89.00 and 88.20-87.60-87.00. Buy above 91.00-90.40 with risk daily closing below 90.40 and targeting 91.90-92.50-93.00 and 93.90-94.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     91.00-90.40
S2     89.00
S3     88.20-87.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     91.90-92.50
R2     93.00
R3     93.90-94.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.624 Sell
20-DMA   87.30 Buy
50-DMA   82.72 Buy
100-DMA   79.08 Buy
200-DMA   73.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.934 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1329/EUR, high of US$1.1429/EUR and settled the day down by 0.669% to close at US$1.1350/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1305-1.1220 with risk below 1.1220, targeting 1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650. Sell below 1.1355-1.1570, targeting 1.1310-1.1270-1.1230 and 1.1200-1.1185 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1305-1.1270
S2     1.1230
S3     1.1200-1.1185

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1355-1.1400
R2     1.1485
R3     1.1525-1.1570

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   1.1328 Buy
50-DMA   1.1347 Buy
100-DMA   1.1435 Buy
200-DMA   1.1570 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.547 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3513/GBP, high of US$1.3609/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0346% to close at US$1.3557/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3500-1.3350 with target 1.3590-1.3640-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3800-1.3840 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3590-1.3840 with targets at 1.3500-1.3440-1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3500
S2     1.3410
S3     1.3350-1.3300

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3590-1.3640
R2     1.3700
R3     1.3750-1.3800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.849

Buy
20-DMA   1.3520 Buy
50-DMA   1.3500 Buy
100-DMA   1.3535 Buy
200-DMA   1.3580 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.039 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY115.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY116.16/USD and settled the day down 0.470% at JPY115.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.70-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.40-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.00
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.1338 Buy
20-DMA   114.84 Sell
50-DMA   114.19 Buy
100-DMA   113.17 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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