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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, while geopolitical tensions over Ukraine weighed on the euro. However, the debate on how aggressively the U.S. should hike interest rate capped the dollar’s losses. The euro was at $1.1308 in early Asian trading, after hitting $1.1278 the day before, its lowest in a week-and-a-half. With moves also cautious elsewhere, the dollar was just below a two-week high hit on Monday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday called on citizens to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, the date when some Western media have predicted a possible Russian invasion. The comments spooked investors, but the comments were meant to be “sarcastic,” according to Zelenskiy’s office. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve officials continue to argue over how aggressively to begin upcoming interest rate hikes at their March meeting. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who called for a large 50 basis point increase in the previous week, repeated calls to hike interest rate faster on Monday. However, Bullard’s colleagues were more cautious in their remarks, and the Fed will also release the minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its own meeting earlier in the day. Tensions in Ukraine and the more aggressive outlooks for the Fed funds rate are both supportive for the dollar in the near term, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia senior currency strategist Kim Mundy told Reuters. The safe-haven yen is usually a beneficiary of runs towards safety, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish monetary policy compared with the U.S. policy is likely to push the yen even lower. The Japanese central bank said during the previous week that it would buy an unlimited amount of 10-year government bonds at 0.25%. However, investors did not test this 0.25% line on Monday. The Russian rouble remained volatile but strengthened overall on Monday. It weakened again slightly during the Asian session. The U.S. dollar index reached a two-week high on Monday on growing worries about Russia-Ukraine tensions and as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated calls for faster U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The index briefly jumped further in afternoon trading after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Ukrainians to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date some Western media have cited as the possible start of a Russian invasion. The comments spooked investors, who have fled to the safe-haven dollar amid the escalating geopolitical problem, but the dollar index quickly came off those highs. Ukrainian officials said Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack on that date, but instead responding with skepticism to foreign media reports. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was deeply worried about "increased speculation" about a military conflict, and urged world leaders to step up diplomacy to calm the situation. Washington had said Russia could invade Ukraine "any day now," and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday called the situation "very, very dangerous." Earlier Monday, Bullard also said four strong inflation reports in a row warranted action and that the central bank needed to "ratify" market expectations of its upcoming moves. Last week's stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report has driven speculation the Fed might raise rates by a full 50 basis points in March.The move into safe-haven assets has overshadowed expectations for monetary policy tightening from the European Central Bank. ECB President Christine Lagarde also recently reiterated that any policy action would be gradual.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, heading towards a three-month peak hit during the previous session. Fears that Russia will invade Ukraine continue to mount and investors pull back from riskier assets. Global shares fell on Monday, while oil climbed to seven-year highs, as the U.S. warned of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine and decreased investors’ risk appetites. The Reserve Bank of Australia also released the minutes from its latest meeting earlier in the day, with the U.S. Federal Reserve due to release the minutes from its own meeting on Wednesday. Fed officials continue to debate how aggressive upcoming interest rate hikes should be ahead of their March 2022 meeting. The U.S. releases its producer price index (PPI) later in the day, with China releasing its own PPI and consumer price index a day later.
  • Oil prices eased on Tuesday as investors scooped up profits from the previous day's rally to seven-year highs and as global stock markets slumped, although lingering concerns that Russia might invade Ukraine and disrupt energy supplies limited losses. Russia is one of the world's largest oil and gas producers, and fears it could invade Ukraine have driven a rally in oil towards $100 per barrel, a level not seen since 2014. Portfolio managers are still bullish on the outlook for oil. But prices have already risen by more than 30% in less than three months and there are growing concerns about rising inflation and interest rates, prompting fund managers to take some profit last week. Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran. The Iranian foreign minister said Iran was "in a hurry" to reach a swift agreement in nuclear talks in Vienna, provided its national interests are protected. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Monday and they noted a "tangible move forward" in reviving the Iran nuclear deal, the Russian foreign ministry said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Ukrainians to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date that some Western media have cited as a possible start of a Russian invasion. Meanwhile, an upward revision in historical oil demand by the International Energy Agency in its monthly report points to a tighter global market than the West's energy watchdog had previously estimated. Shortfalls in production by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, and spare capacity concerns are likely to keep the oil market tight and prices could hit $125 a barrel as early as the second quarter of this year, JP Morgan Global Equity Research said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th February 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,876-1,885 1,894 1,900
Silver-XAG 23.90-24.40 24.90 25.50-25.90
Crude Oil 93.00- 93.90 94.50 95.20-96.00
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1400 1.1485 1.1525-1.1570
GBP/USD 1.3590-1.3640 1.3700 1.3750-1.3800
USD/JPY 115.70-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th February 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,870-1,865 1,856 1,849-1,841
Silver-XAG 23.80-23.15 22.90 22.50-21.90
Crude Oil 92.50- 91.90 91.00 90.40-89.00
EURO/USD 1.1305-1.1270 1.1230 1.1200-1.1185
GBP/USD 1.3500 1.3410 1.3350-1.3300
USD/JPY 115.00 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (15th February 2022)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1874.03/oz and low of US$1850.73/oz. Gold up 0.485% at US$1870.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1870-1834 with risk below 1808, targeting 1876-1885 and 1894-1900. Sell in between 1880-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1874-1865-1856 and 1849-1840-1833.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,870-1,865
S2     1,856
S3     1,849-1,841
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,876-1,885
R2     1,894
R3     1,900

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.587

Buy
20-DMA   1820.68 Sell
50-DMA  

1812.81

Buy
100-DMA   1806.50 Buy
200-DMA   1802.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.016 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.877 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.92/oz and low of US$23.51/oz settled up by 0.974% at US$23.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.80-20.50, targeting 24.10 and 24.55-24.90- 25.40 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.50. Sell in between 23.90-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.70-23.15-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.80-23.15
S2     22.90
S3     22.50-21.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90-24.40
R2     24.90
R3     25.50-25.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.185 Buy
20-DMA   23.13 Sell
50-DMA   23.11 Sell
100-DMA   23.36 Sell
200-DMA   23.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.764 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US93.99/bbl, intraday low of US$90.58/bbl and settled up by 0.661% to close at US$92.96/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 91.90-94.50 with stop loss at 94.50; targeting 91.00-90.40-89.00 and 88.20-87.60-87.00. Buy above 91.00-90.40 with risk daily closing below 90.40 and targeting 91.90-92.50-93.00 and 93.90-94.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     92.50- 91.90
S2     91.00
S3     90.40-89.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     93.00- 93.90
R2     94.50
R3     95.20-96.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.624 Sell
20-DMA   87.30 Buy
50-DMA   82.72 Buy
100-DMA   79.08 Buy
200-DMA   73.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.934 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1279/EUR, high of US$1.1368/EUR and settled the day down by 0.661% to close at US$1.1305/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1305-1.1220 with risk below 1.1220, targeting 1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650. Sell below 1.1355-1.1570, targeting 1.1310-1.1270-1.1230 and 1.1200-1.1185 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1305-1.1270
S2     1.1230
S3     1.1200-1.1185

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1355-1.1400
R2     1.1485
R3     1.1525-1.1570

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   1.1328 Buy
50-DMA   1.1347 Buy
100-DMA   1.1435 Buy
200-DMA   1.1570 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.547 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3494/GBP, high of US$1.3571/GBP and settled the day down by 0.199% to close at US$1.3519/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3500-1.3350 with target 1.3590-1.3640-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3800-1.3840 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3590-1.3840 with targets at 1.3500-1.3440-1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3500
S2     1.3410
S3     1.3350-1.3300

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3590-1.3640
R2     1.3700
R3     1.3750-1.3800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.849

Buy
20-DMA   1.3520 Buy
50-DMA   1.3500 Buy
100-DMA   1.3535 Buy
200-DMA   1.3580 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.039 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY115.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.74/USD and settled the day down 0.168% at JPY115.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.70-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.00
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.1338 Buy
20-DMA   114.84 Sell
50-DMA   114.19 Buy
100-DMA   113.17 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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