AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar bounced in early European trade Thursday, with this safe haven boosted by reports of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, raising fears of a major conflict. Russian-backed rebels earlier Thursday accused Ukrainian government forces of shelling their territory in the eastern part of the country. This has created a lot of uncertainty over whether this will remain a localized event or if it could lead to a broader conflict with Russia using the event as a reason to invade. Tensions had been reduced earlier in the week after Russia announced it was withdrawing some of its troops positioned near Ukraine, but a number of Western countries, including the U.S., and NATO have disputed that claim. Elsewhere, traders continue to digest the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, ahead of the release of the weekly jobless claims data. With consumer inflation at 40-year highs, expectations had been growing that the Fed policymakers had already decided to start its policy tightening with a 50 basis point hike at its March meeting. However, the minutes showed that while policymakers agreed that it would "soon be appropriate" to raise the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from its near-zero level, they would re-assess the rate hike timeline at each meeting depending on the available data. The benchmark one-week repo rate is expected to stay at 14%, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan opposed to higher interest rates despite this being the orthodox method of combating soaring consumer prices.
  • The dollar bounced on Thursday after a Russian news report of mortar fire in eastern Ukraine jangled market nerves and sent investors in to safe havens. Russia-backed rebels accused Ukrainian forces of shelling their territory in violation of agreements aimed at ending conflict in the contested Donbass area, the RIA news agency said, a report later denied bsy Ukraine. Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops close to Ukraine's borders and the Wet has threatened Russia with new sanctions if it attacks. The euro fell as much as 0.4% as traders immediately saw risks of a wider war. But Ukraine's denial and the location of the reported attack within already contested territory calmed things and the euro last sat at $1.1354. The standoff on Europe's eastern edge is one of the deepest crises in East-West relations for decades. Earlier in the day, a U.S. official said Russia was increasing troop numbers near its border with Ukraine rather than withdrawing, as Moscow claimed. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also said Russia could "launch a false pretext at any moment" to justify an invasion, something Russia has dismissed. Safe-haven Treasuries rallied and U.S. stock futures fell with the mood, though the lack of clarity around the situation capped larger move. Economic data also added some support to the dollar on Thursday, offsetting some overnight softness when minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting were less hawkish than some investors had expected. Data showed Japan ran its biggest trade deficit in a single month in eight years in January, and that follows Europe's trade gap widening in December as energy prices surge. Rates expectations held the kiwi and sterling steady. Ahead on Thursday, speeches from Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos and European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane at 0800 GMT and 1400 GMT, respectively, will be closely watched for clues on the ECB outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks at 1600 GMT and U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are also due.
  • Oil was mixed on Thursday morning in Asia after both France and Iran said they were closer to an agreement to salvage Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. This offset worries about the situation in Ukraine. On Wednesday, France said it was just days away from reviving Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and that it was now up to Iran to make the political choice. However, Tehran appealed for Western powers to be "realistic." Meanwhile, Wednesday’s U.S crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a build of 1.121 million barrels in the week to Feb. 11. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted a 1.572-million-barrel draw, while a 4.756-million-barrel-draw was recorded during the previous week. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, released on Tuesday, showed a draw of 1.076 million barrels. In recent weeks, investors have also been keeping an eye on Russia's threatening posture toward Ukraine, as concerns that any supply disruptions from the major producer in an already tight global market could push oil prices to $100 a barrel. Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine said Kyiv government forces on Thursday used mortars to attack their territory, in violation of agreements aimed at ending the conflict, Russian state news agency RIA said. An escalation in the years-long conflict with Donbass separatists could fuel tension between Russia and the West. Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops close to Ukraine's border and the West has threatened Moscow with new sanctions if it attacks. Oil tumbled earlier after France and Iran said parties are closer to an agreement to salvage Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, offsetting tensions over Ukraine.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th February 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,879-1,890 1,900 1,909-1,916
Silver-XAG 23.90 24.40 24.90-25.50
Crude Oil 91.90-92.50 93.00 93.90-94.50
EURO/USD 1.1400 1.1485 1.1525-1.1570
GBP/USD 1.3600-1.3640 1.37001.3700 1.3750-1.3800
USD/JPY 115.70-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th February 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,870-1,856 1,849 1,841-1,831
Silver-XAG 23.40-22.90 22.50 21.90-21.50
Crude Oil 91.00 90.40-89.00
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1305 1.1270 1.1230-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.3570-1.3500 1.3410 1.3350-1.3300
USD/JPY 115.00 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (17th February 2022)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1879.41/oz and low of US$1844.44/oz. Gold down 0.950% at US$1853.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1870-1817 with risk below 1817, targeting 1876-1885-1894 and 1900-1909-1916. Sell in between 1880-1900 keeping stop loss closing above 1900, targeting 1874-1865-1856 and 1849-1840-1833.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,870-1,856
S2     1,849
S3     1,841-1,831
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,879-1,890
R2     1,900
R3     1,909-1,916

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.587

Buy
20-DMA   1820.68 Sell
50-DMA  

1812.81

Buy
100-DMA   1806.50 Buy
200-DMA   1802.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.016 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.877 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wedneday made its intraday high of US$23.65/oz and low of US$23.26/oz settled up by 0.902% at US$23.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.40-20.50, targeting 24.10 and 23.90-24.55-24.90 and 25.40-26.00 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.50. Sell in between 23.90-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.15-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.40-22.90
S2     22.50
S3     21.90-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90
R2     24.40
R3     24.90-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.467 Buy
20-DMA   23.19 Sell
50-DMA   23.14 Sell
100-DMA   23.36 Sell
200-DMA   23.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   63.764 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US93.05/bbl, intraday low of US$88.19/bbl and settled down by % to close at US$88.85/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 91.90-94.50 with stop loss at 94.50; targeting 91.00-90.40-89.00 and 88.20-87.60-87.00. Buy above 91.00-90.40 with risk daily closing below 90.40 and targeting 91.90-92.50-93.00 and 93.90-94.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1    
S2     91.00
S3     90.40-89.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     91.90-92.50
R2     93.00
R3     93.90-94.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.624 Sell
20-DMA   87.30 Buy
50-DMA   82.72 Buy
100-DMA   79.08 Buy
200-DMA   73.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.934 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.13442/EUR, high of US$1.1395/EUR and settled the day up by 0.121% to close at US$1.1371/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1355-1.1220 with risk below 1.1220, targeting 1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650. Sell below 1.1400-1.1570, targeting 1.1350-1.1270-1.1230 and 1.1200-1.1185 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1355-1.1305
S2     1.1270
S3     1.1230-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400
R2     1.1485
R3     1.1525-1.1570

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   1.1328 Buy
50-DMA   1.1347 Buy
100-DMA   1.1435 Buy
200-DMA   1.1570 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.547 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3520/GBP, high of US$1.3600/GBP and settled the day 0.366% by 0.106% to close at US$1.3582/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3500-1.3350 with target 1.3590-1.3640-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3800-1.3840 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3590-1.3840 with targets at 1.3500-1.3440-1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3570-1.3500
S2     1.3410
S3     1.3350-1.3300

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3600-1.3640
R2     1.37001.3700
R3     1.3750-1.3800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.849

Buy
20-DMA   1.3520 Buy
50-DMA   1.3500 Buy
100-DMA   1.3535 Buy
200-DMA   1.3580 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.039 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY115.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.78/USD and settled the day down 0.106% at JPY115.43/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     115.00
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.1338 Buy
20-DMA   114.84 Sell
50-DMA   114.19 Buy
100-DMA   113.17 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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