AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, with currency markets monitoring the ongoing tensions over Ukraine. The safe-haven yen was not far from a two-week high while the euro was on edge as investors calculated the energy security and economic implications for Europe in the event of a Russian invasion. In a reflection of the situation, the euro got a small boost early in the Asian session as U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed “in principle” to hold a summit to discuss Ukraine. However, the summit would not take place should Russia invade Ukraine. Meanwhile, the yen lost a little bit of ground on the dollar following the announcement. However, safe-haven assets such as the yen and Swiss franc benefitted from investors’ risk aversion due to the tension in Eastern Europe. The euro traded 0.12% higher at $1.13340, after falling earlier in the session in reaction to Sunday's announcement from the Belarusian defense ministry that Russia would extend military drills in Belarus. Central banks’ policies also remain on investors’ radars, with the People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rates due later in the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hand down its policy decision on Wednesday and the Bank of Korea will hand down its policy decision a day later. Outside Asia Pacific, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey will appear before the Treasury Committee on Wednesday. Several U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers will also speak throughout the week, with investors looking for clues that a large 50 basis point rate hike could come at the Fed's March 2022 meeting, instead of the more widely expected 25 basis point increase. The BOE is also widely expected to hike rates again at its March meeting, giving the pound some support although the situation in Ukraine perhaps capped gains.
  • The euro rallied and the dollar retreated on Monday as investors pulled capital away from safe havens after U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to meet to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Hopes that the crisis might be moving towards de-escalation was being felt through most financial asset classes, and European stock markets opened in positive territory. By contrast, safe-have currencies which have benefited from the tensions spurred by Russia's military build-up on Ukraine's borders were on the defensive. While the outcome of negotiations to find a peaceful way out of the Ukrainian crisis remains uncertain, more volatility is expected ahead. Currency markets participants are also focused on central bank policy, seeking clues on the speed and size of interest rate hikes in major markets. Investors will be closely watching remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers this week for any hint that an expected rate hike at the Fed's March meeting could veer more towards to 50 basis points instead of the current consensus for a 25 basis point increase. Public remarks are also due from several BOE policy makers.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday, reversing course from strong initial gains, as news of fresh diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis provided some relief from concerns about crude supply. But prices subsequently swung to a near $1 loss after the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on Monday that U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernise its economy if it invaded Ukraine. Analysts at Singapore's OCBC bank said Brent could test $100 in the short term, possibly before the end of first quarter. Despite the prospect of $100 oil, ministers of Arab oil-producing countries said on Sunday that OPEC+ should stick to its current agreement to add 400,000 barrels of oil per day each month to output, rejecting calls to pump more to ease pressure on prices. To avert a major run up in prices, RBC Capital analysts said the White House is expected to prepare a large strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) release coordinated through the International Energy Agency. Price gains have also been limited by the possibility of more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude returning to the market. A senior European Union official said on Friday a deal to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement was "very very close". Analysts said the market remained tight, and any addition of oil would help, but prices would remain volatile in the near term as Iranian crude would only likely return later this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st February 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,900-1,909 1,916 1,924-1,934
Silver-XAG 23.90 24.40 24.90-25.50
Crude Oil 90.40-91.00 91.90 92.50-93.10
EURO/USD 1.1400 1.1485 1.1525-1.1570
GBP/USD 1.3640 1.3700 1.3750-1.3800
USD/JPY 115.70-11610 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st February 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,890-1,879 1,870 1,856-1,849
Silver-XAG 23.40-22.90 23.40-22.90 21.90-21.50
Crude Oil 89.00-88.10 87.60 87.00-85.50
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1305 1.1270 1.1230-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.3600-1.3570 1.3500 1.3410-1.3350
USD/JPY 114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (21st February 2022)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1902.35/oz and low of US$1886.55/oz. Gold up 0.007% at US$1898.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1890-1849 with risk below 1849, targeting 1900-1909-1916 and 1924-1934. Sell in between 1900-1949 keeping stop loss closing above 1949, targeting 1890-1879-1874 and 1865-1856-1849.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,890-1,879
S2     1,870
S3     1,856-1,849
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,900-1,909
R2     1,916
R3     1,924-1,934

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.587

Buy
20-DMA   1820.68 Sell
50-DMA  

1812.81

Buy
100-DMA   1806.50 Buy
200-DMA   1802.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.016 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.877 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.07/oz and low of US$23.67/oz settled up by 0.256% at US$23.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.40-20.50, targeting 24.10 and 23.90-24.55-24.90 and 25.40-26.00 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.50. Sell in between 23.90-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.15-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.40-22.90
S2     23.40-22.90
S3     21.90-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     23.90
R2     24.40
R3     24.90-25.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.467 Buy
20-DMA   23.19 Sell
50-DMA   23.14 Sell
100-DMA   23.36 Sell
200-DMA   23.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   63.764 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US90.85/bbl, intraday low of US$87.25/bbl and settled up by 0.638% to close at US$90.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 90.40-94.50 with stop loss at 94.50; targeting 89.00-88.20-87.60 and 87.00-86.20-85.50. Buy above 91.00-90.40 with risk daily closing below 90.40 and targeting 91.90-92.50-93.00 and 93.90-94.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     89.00-88.10
S2     87.60
S3     87.00-85.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     90.40-91.00
R2     91.90
R3     92.50-93.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   70.624 Sell
20-DMA   87.30 Buy
50-DMA   82.72 Buy
100-DMA   79.08 Buy
200-DMA   73.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.108 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.934 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1313/EUR, high of US$1.1376/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0414% to close at US$1.1321/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1355-1.1220 with risk below 1.1220, targeting 1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650. Sell below 1.1400-1.1570, targeting 1.1350-1.1270-1.1230 and 1.1200-1.1185 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1355-1.1305
S2     1.1270
S3     1.1230-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400
R2     1.1485
R3     1.1525-1.1570

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   1.1328 Buy
50-DMA   1.1347 Buy
100-DMA   1.1435 Buy
200-DMA   1.1570 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.547 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3545/GBP, high of US$1.3637/GBP and settled the day by 0.237% to close at US$1.3614/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3600-1.3350 with target 1.3640-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3800-1.3840 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3640-1.3840 with targets at 1.3500-1.3440-1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3600-1.3570
S2     1.3500
S3     1.3410-1.3350

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3640
R2     1.3700
R3     1.3750-1.3800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.849

Buy
20-DMA   1.3520 Buy
50-DMA   1.3500 Buy
100-DMA   1.3535 Buy
200-DMA   1.3580 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.039 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY114.78/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.29/USD and settled the day up 0.0643% at JPY114.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-11610
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.1338 Buy
20-DMA   114.84 Sell
50-DMA   114.19 Buy
100-DMA   113.17 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

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