AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia. Investors look to get a handle on the latest developments in Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine tensions are still on investors’ radar as the West has imposed sanctions on Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden took measures that target Russia’s elites and sale of sovereign debt on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops in two breakaway regions in easter Ukraine. The sanctions are to punish Russia’s economy but are not intended to hit energy markets, a senior U.S. State Department official said. Meanwhile, Germany halted a major gas pipeline project from Russia. U.S. Treasuries edged higher following the sanctions. As investors turn to safe-haven assets over growing concerns, both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc had been advancing for the past week. One However, the note added that "the market reaction is modest so far because the Russian, European and U.S. actions have been flagged for some time." Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates due to higher raw material costs in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine tension. On the data front, the U.S. will release new home sales, GDP, and initial jobless claims on Thursday. The U.S. dollar dipped slightly against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday amid choppy trade spurred by developments in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in the country and ordered troops to the area. The Kremlin said it remained open to diplomacy with the United States and other countries as it faced actions from a slew of countries. Britain published a list of sanctions and Germany froze the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, which would have significantly increased the flow of Russian gas. The euro rose versus the greenback after earlier touching its lowest level since Feb. 14, buoyed in part by the hope for talks and economic data that showed business morale in Germany improved in February across all sectors to its highest since August. The dollar earlier gained some ground after data from IHS Markit showed U.S. business activity in February regained speed as the drag from a surge in COVID-19 cases during the winter ebbed. Other data, however, showed U.S. consumer confidence fell for a second straight month in February. After initially strengthening against the dollar, safe havens such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gave back gains against the greenback. The dollar was up 0.6% against the Swiss franc while the yen weakened 0.29%.
  • Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, as Treasury yields rose following U.S. and European sanctions on Russia offset safe-haven demand. U.S. President Joe Biden took measures that target Russia’s elites and sale of sovereign debt on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops in two breakaway regions in easter Ukraine. The sanctions are to punish Russia’s economy but are not intended to hit energy markets, a senior U.S. State Department official said. Meanwhile, Germany paused a major gas pipeline project from Russia. U.S. Treasuries edged higher following the sanctions. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates due to higher raw material costs in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine tension. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has been hawkish at the Federal Reserve, pushing for 100 basis points worth of rate hikes over the next three meetings. In the Asia Pacific, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its interest rates for the third straight meeting and said that it plans a higher-than-expected interest rate to tame inflation.
  • Oil prices stabilised on Wednesday after hitting seven-year highs in the last session as it became clear the first wave of U.S. and European sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine would not disrupt oil supplies. Prices jumped on Tuesday on worries that western sanctions on Russia for sending troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine could hit energy supplies, but the United States made it clear there would be no impact on energy exports. Sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan on Tuesday were focused on Russian banks and elites while Germany halted a major gas pipeline project from Russia in response to one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades. Further dampening prices was the possible return of more than 1 million barrels per day of crude from Iran, as diplomats said Iran and world powers were on the verge of reaching an agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear programme. The big unknown is how quickly Iran could actually boost its exports, Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said. Other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, together called OPEC+, have struggled to meet their production targets due to underinvestment in oil infrastructure, and Iran could face the same issue, he said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd February 2022 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,900-1,909 1,916 1,924-1,934
Silver-XAG 24.40-24.80 25.40 25.70-26.00
Crude Oil 91.90-92.50 93.10 94.00-94.50
EURO/USD 1.1355-1.1400 1.1485 1.1525-1.1570
GBP/USD 1.3640 1.3700 1.3750-1.3800
USD/JPY 115.70-116.10 116.80 117.50-118.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd February 2022 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,890-1,879 1,870 1,858-1,849
Silver-XAG 23.90-23.40 22.90 22.50-.2190
Crude Oil 91.00-90.40 89.15 88.50-87.40
EURO/USD 1.1305 1.1270 1.1230-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.3590-1.3570 1.3500 1.3410-1.3350
USD/JPY 114.90 114.50 114.05-113.70

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd February 2022)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Sell
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Buy
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1913.89/oz and low of US$1891.31/oz. Gold down 0.376% at US$1898.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 1890-1849 with risk below 1849, targeting 1900-1909-1916 and 1924-1934. Sell in between 1900-1949 keeping stop loss closing above 1949, targeting 1890-1879-1874 and 1865-1856-1849.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,890-1,879
S2     1,870
S3     1,858-1,849
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,900-1,909
R2     1,916
R3     1,924-1,934

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.587

Buy
20-DMA   1820.68 Sell
50-DMA  

1812.81

Buy
100-DMA   1806.50 Buy
200-DMA   1802.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.016 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.877 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$24.35/oz and low of US$23.89/oz settled up by 0.454% at US$24.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.90-20.50, targeting 24.10-24.55-24.90 and 25.40-26.00 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 20.50. Sell in between 24.40-25.90 with stop loss above 25.90; targeting 23.15-22.90 and 22.50-22.10-21.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.90-23.40
S2     22.90
S3     22.50-.2190

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.40-24.80
R2     25.40
R3     25.70-26.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.559 Buy
20-DMA   23.45 Sell
50-DMA   23.27 Sell
100-DMA   23.41 Sell
200-DMA   23.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.764 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.119 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US92.51/bbl, intraday low of US$88.90/bbl and settled up by 1.648% to close at US$92.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 91.90-95.50 with stop loss at 95.50; targeting 91.00-90.40-89.15 and 88.50-87.40. Buy above 91.00-87.40 with risk daily closing below 87.40 and targeting 91.90-92.50-93.10 and 93.90-94.50-94.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     91.00-90.40
S2     89.15
S3     88.50-87.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     91.90-92.50
R2     93.10
R3     94.00-94.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.814 Sell
20-DMA   89.03 Buy
50-DMA   84.50 Buy
100-DMA   80.43 Buy
200-DMA   74.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   72.108 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.934 Buy

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1287/EUR, high of US$1.1366/EUR and settled the day down by 0.151% to close at US$1.1323/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1355-1.1220 with risk below 1.1220, targeting 1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650. Sell below 1.1400-1.1570, targeting 1.1350-1.1270-1.1230 and 1.1200-1.1185 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1305
S2     1.1270
S3     1.1230-1.1200

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1355-1.1400
R2     1.1485
R3     1.1525-1.1570

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.407 Buy
20-DMA   1.1328 Buy
50-DMA   1.1347 Buy
100-DMA   1.1435 Buy
200-DMA   1.1570 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.547 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3537/GBP, high of US$1.3604/GBP and settled the day down by 0.157% to close at US$1.3577/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3570-1.3350 with target 1.3640-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3800-1.3840 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3640-1.3840 with targets at 13570-1.3500-1.3440 and 1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3790.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3590-1.3570
S2     1.3500
S3     1.3410-1.3350

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3640
R2     1.3700
R3     1.3750-1.3800

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.351

Buy
20-DMA   1.3557 Buy
50-DMA   1.3526 Buy
100-DMA   1.3542 Buy
200-DMA   1.3578 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.766 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.002 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY114.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.49/USD and settled the day up 0.277% at JPY115.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     114.90
S2     114.50
S3     114.05-113.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     115.70-116.10
R2     116.80
R3     117.50-118.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.1338 Buy
20-DMA   114.84 Sell
50-DMA   114.19 Buy
100-DMA   113.17 Buy
200-DMA   111.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.683 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0102 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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