Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, with the euro weakening and increased demand for safe-haven currencies as concerns of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine intensify. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special operation to “protect” Ukraine’s Donbass (Donbas) region, according to a TASS report citing a speech. While Putin said that while Russia has no plans to occupy Ukraine, he urged Ukrainian forces to put down their arms and go home and that Russia would not let Ukraine secure nuclear arms, the report added. A state of emergency has been declared in Ukraine, and Russia began evacuating its embassy in the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv. The West reacted by slapping sanctions on Russia, with the U.S. joining Germany in sanctioning the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline linking Germany and Russia. The dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss Franc all climbed towards multi-week highs against the euro. The dollar remained near a one-week peak after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he believes Russia will invade Ukraine within hours. Riskier commodity-linked currencies also fell, reflecting investors’ decreasing risk appetite, losing its resilience from earlier in the week.
• U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as the latest developments in the Ukrainian crisis dented investor appetite for risk, as a sell-off in the equity market helped drive a safe-haven bid for the greenback. After spending the early part of the day lower, the dollar began to strengthen as the situation in Ukraine intensified and U.S. stocks gave up initial gains, and the U.S. State Department said a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine remains potentially imminent. The United States and allies unveiled more sanctions against Russia, with European Union measures taking effect on Wednesday. Ukraine declared a state of emergency and told its citizens in Russia to come home, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy. The greenback has been subdued recently as tensions in Ukraine have increased, fueling speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in tightening policy at its March meeting. Expectations for at least a 50-basis-point interest rate hike have dipped to about 31% from around 45% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch The Russian rouble weakened 2.70% versus the greenback at 81.13 after reaching 81.392 per dollar, giving back gains made on Tuesday. The New Zealand dollar jumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates and said more tightening could be necessary. The kiwi last was up 0.59% versus the greenback at $0.677.
• Gold was up on Thursday morning in Asia, hitting a near nine-month high earlier in the week. Investors turned towards safe-haven assets after Ukraine declared a state of emergency and Russia sent troops into eastern Ukraine. Separatists in Ukraine’s Donbass (Donbas) requested Russian help in repelling "aggression" on Wednesday. Ukraine responded by announcing compulsory military service and a state of emergency. The West in turn responded by slapping sanctions on Russia. The U.S. joined German sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline linking Germany and Russia. The Russian rouble tumbled more than 3% after the European Union blacklisted Russian lawmakers by freezing their assets and banning travel. Global shares fell after Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the green light to a military operation in eastern Ukraine earlier in the day. Russia is the third-largest producer of gold globally and Nornickel is also a major producer of both palladium and platinum. Russia produced 2.6 million troy ounces of palladium in 2021 or 40% of global mine production. It also produced 641,000 ounces of platinum or about 10% of total mine production.
• Oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent breaching $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, after Russia attacked Ukraine, exacerbating concerns that a war in Europe could disrupt global energy supplies. After Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a tweet that Russia had launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and was targeting cities with weapons strikes. Ukraine said that Russia was moving military equipment into the country from Crimea and facing non-stop cyber attacks. It reported one death so far Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer, mainly selling its crude to European refineries, and is the largest provider of natural gas to Europe, providing about 35% of its supply. Oil prices have surged more than $20 a barrel since the start of 2022 on fears that the United States and Europe would impose sanctions on Russia's energy sector, disrupting supplies. While there are no sanctions yet on the energy trade, western nations and Japan on Tuesday punished Russia with new sanctions for ordering troops into separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, and threatened to go further if Moscow launched an invasion of its neighbour. Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said this week there is no need for the group and its allies to increase output further as a potential deal between Iran and world powers over the oil producers' nuclear programme would increase supplies. The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in indirect nuclear talks in Vienna that could lead to the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. However, certain OPEC members are already struggling to meet current output targets. Iran on Wednesday however urged Western powers to be "realistic" about the nuclear talks and said its top negotiator was returning to Tehran for consultations, suggesting a breakthrough in its discussions is not imminent. Analysts are also warning of inflationary pressure on the global economy from $100 oil, especially for Asia, which imports most of its energy needs.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1910.41/oz and low of US$1889.50/oz. Gold up 0.493% at US$1907.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1949-1976 keeping stop loss closing above 1976, targeting 1934-1924-1916 and 1909-1900-1890. Buy in between 1934-1890 with risk below 1890, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$24.57/oz and low of US$24.01/oz settled up by 1.809% at US$24.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.80-22.90, targeting 25.40-25.70-26.00 and 26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.80-26.75 with stop loss above 26.75; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US93.56/bbl, intraday low of US$90.36/bbl and settled up by 0.539% to close at US$91.94/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 96.90-101.00 with stop loss at 101.00; targeting 96.50-95.90-95.00 and 94.30-93.10. Buy above 96.50-93.40 with risk daily closing below 93.40 and targeting 96.90-98.70-99.20 and 100.10-101.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1300/EUR, high of US$1.1358/EUR and settled the day down by 0.190% to close at US$1.1301/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1270-1.1470, targeting 1.1230-1.1200-1.1185 and 1.1150-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1240-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3535/GBP, high of US$1.3620/GBP and settled the day down by 0.253% to close at US$1.3542/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3410-1.3200 with target 1.3500-1.3570-1.3590 and 1.3640-1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3500-1.3840 with targets at 1.3440-1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY114.49/USD and made an intraday high of JPY114.49/USD and settled the day up 0.277% at JPY115.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.