Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar retreated against most currencies, including the euro, on Friday, as markets walked back some of the tumultuous moves from the previous day when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent investors scrambling. Russia's rouble also recovered some ground, trading at around 84.4 per dollar on Friday, having hit a record low of 89.986 per dollar the day before as Russia unleashed the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two. The United States, the European Union and some other countries responded with a wave of sanctions impeding Russia's ability to do business in major currencies along with sanctions against banks and state-owned enterprises. As well as the direct impact of the war in Ukraine, currency traders were trying to assess the war's impact on monetary policy around the world. Several policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB), even those sometimes seen as hawkish, said the situation in Ukraine could cause the ECB to slow its exit from stimulus measures. Meanwhile, investors and some U.S. officials said the war would likely slow but not stop approaching interest rate hikes. Federal Reserve policymakers have been publicly sparring over whether to begin with a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike at its March meeting. The Russian rouble also fell to a record low of 89.986 per dollar overnight, before recovering slightly. The euro last traded at $1.1196 after hitting its lowest level since May 2020, or $1.1106. The pound and the riskier Australian dollar also suffered losses, with both currencies struggling to recover from their losses. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen and Swiss franc. The greenback slid 0.48% on the Japanese currency on Thursday and was at 0.9241 against the Swiss franc after losing 0.85% the previous day. In the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine on Thursday. Tens of thousands of people have fled their homes and Ukrainian forces fought on multiple fronts. The U.S. responded by slapping sanctions on Russia, impeding the latter's access to foreign currencies alongside sanctions against banks and state-owned enterprises. This has led to a "flight-to-quality type move both in global assets moving to the dollar and yen as well as in emerging markets,” Chowdhury added. Investors were also calculating the impact of the crisis in Ukraine on central banks’ monetary policies. Some officials from the European Central Bank, even those who could be perceived as hawkish, said the situation in Ukraine could cause the central bank to delay the start of asset tapering. In the U.S., investors and some officials said the conflict would likely slow, but not stop, imminent interest rate hikes from the U.S.Federal Reserve.
• Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia after a roller-coaster session the day before. Investors continue to re-assess the situation surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday as well as further Western sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed on Friday to stay in the capital city of Kyiv. Ukrainian forces continue to fight the Russian invasion, the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two. U.S. President Joe Biden slapped more sanctions on Russia aimed at impeding the latter’s ability to do business in major currencies. The U.S. has already placed sanctions against Russian banks and state-owned enterprises. Central banks and their policies are also on investors’ radars. The U.S. Federal Reserve is still set to hike interest rates in March 2022, while the European Central Bank said that the conflict in Ukraine could delay, but not stop, the start of asset tapering.
• Oil was up on Friday morning in Asia, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine driving global supply concerns. Investors are also bracing for the potential impact of trade sanctions on Russia, the third-largest crude exporter globally. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday saw the black liquid soar past the $100 mark for the first time since 2014, with Brent Futures climbing as high as $105. Ukrainians are fleeing in the tens of thousands in the aftermath of the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two. The U.S. responded to the invasion by slapping more sanctions on Russia. Although a State Department official told Reuters that the sanctions "are not targeting and will not target oil and gas flows", oil prices remain high. Although the U.S, has indicated it may look to release strategic oil stockpiles to address soaring prices, "history suggests that any drawdown on strategic oil stockpiles will likely only provide temporary relief from high oil prices," according to Dhar’s note. Meanwhile, Thursday’s U.S. crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a build of 4.515 million barrels in the week to Feb. 18. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a 442,000-barrel build, while a 1.121-million-barrel build was recorded during the previous week. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute, released the day before, showed a build of 5.983 million barrels.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1974.31/oz and low of US$1877.94/oz. Gold down 0.257% at US$1903.53/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell in between 1924-1976 keeping stop loss closing above 1976, targeting 1914-1900 and 1890-1876. Buy in between 1909-1876 with risk below 1876, targeting 1949-1958 and 1964-1970-1979.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$25.60/oz and low of US$23.82/oz settled down by 1.369% at US$24.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (26.62), breakage above will lead to 27.60. MACD is below zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching neutral region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 24.30-22.90, targeting 24.80-25.40-25.70 and 26.00-26.40-26.75 with stop loss should be place on the breakage below 22.90. Sell in between 24.80-26.75 with stop loss above 26.75; targeting 24.80-24.40-23.90 and 23.40-23.15-22.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US93.99/bbl, intraday low of US$87.25/bbl and settled down by 2.12% to close at US$90.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 94.30-96.90 with stop loss at 96.90; targeting 93.90-93.10-92.50 and 91.90-91.10. Buy above 93.90-91.50 with risk daily closing below 91.50 and targeting 94.30-95.00-95.90 and 96.90-97.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1105/EUR, high of US$1.1308/EUR and settled the day down by % to close at US$1.1190/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.347), which become immediate support, break below will target 1.1270. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1240-1.1470, targeting 1.1230-1.1200-1.1185 and 1.1150-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500. Buy above 1.1205-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1485-1.1525-1.1570 and 1.1620-1.1650.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3272/GBP, high of US$1.3548/GBP and settled the day down by 1.261% to close at US$1.3372/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.3760) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3410-1.3200 with target 1.3500-1.3570-1.3590 and 1.3640-1.3700-1.3750 with stop loss closing below 1.3300. Sell in between 1.3500-1.3840 with targets at 1.3440-1.3390 and 1.3300-1.3250 with stop loss should be 1.3840.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY114.40/USD and made an intraday high of JPY115.69/USD and settled the day up 0.491% at JPY115.47/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 115.90-118.00 with risk above 118.00 targeting 115.40-115.00-114.50 and 113.90-113.20-112.70. Long positions above 115.00-113.70 with targets of 115.50-116.35-116.90 with stop below 113.70.